FX:GER30   DAX Index
Hello everyone,

This week, I offer my analysis of the movements of $GER30 during the week and my outlook for next week.
Have nice reading and be pleased to comment if you want.

Reminder of my prevision of last week: « My perspectives for next week are GER30 will not break the resistance of 14600 and it may stay between 13900 and 14600. That’s why I am currently short on $GER30.»

As last week, I was good on the first part of the week. But completely wrong on the end. Even if the start of a fall finally arrived Friday.

So, what happens this week?

Monday: Astra Zeneca vaccination was stopped all around Europe: the fear of secondary effect. The possible change in the vaccination policy take the lead and then the GER30 fall a bit towards 14500 with a spike at 14400.

Tuesday and start of Wednesday : those two days were very calm days because the investors were waiting for the FED decision. The anticipation of the good world economic recovering push GER30 up

Wednesday evening: FED decision was revealed… the interest rates may remain the same up to 2023. Very good news for $GER30 and $NSDQ100 which explodes

Thursday: Thursday, the effect of the FED decision continues and $GER30 touches 14800.

Friday: It was a calm day, but FED decided to stop some avantages concerning US banks which pushes GER30 fall at around 1.00pm UTC.

Moreover since Thursday, there are tensions between Biden’s administration and Russia and also between Biden’s administration and China. I didn’t see a massive effect last week, neither on $GER30 nor on $NSDQ100, nevertheless I am expecting to see some effects next week if it continues.

My perspectives for next week:
- I don’t see GER30 break the resistance of 14800 (but I have prepared a plan if it breaks, because as we saw last week: we never know).
- Except if bad news occur like: new lockdowns, rise of US/Russia tensions or US/China tensions, I don’t see a big fall.
- I think next week will be the good week to take some selling positions around 14700 and wait for it to fall during the last week of the month.


What to follow next week?
At first, like the weeks before: the US Bond during the whole week and the German and French Bonds also.
Then: US/Russia tensions and US/China tensions
Finally:
- Monday: China national Bank interest rates;
- Tuesday: Calm;
- Wednesday: German manufacturing PMI and US Crude Oil Inventories
- Thursday (Big day):
- Switzerland: Interest rates;
- Bank of England and European Central Bank speeches simultaneously;
- US: GDP and initial jobless claims
- Friday: German Ifo business climate and US Budget (possible).

I wish you a good trading week,

Please feel free to ask me questions, I will be glad to connect with you over the comments or by private messages.
Stay safe,
Alexandre
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