Hello everyone,
This week, I offer my analysis of the movements of $GER30 during the week and my outlook for next week.
Have nice reading and be pleased to comment if you want.
So, what happens last week?
Monday: After a smaller progress in the European PMI than expected, which caused a fall in the morning.
The worst news of the day on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, 60.7 whereas the consensus expected 65.0 and the PMI of March was 64.7, didn’t have any impact on GER30.
GER30 climbed on Monday, pushed by energy and materials on signs of an ongoing recovery because the reopening of the economy is still in a good way.
Tuesday: a big correction occurred.
First of all, investors dumped growth stocks to seek shelter in more defensive parts of the market, amid concerns on rising interest rate and uncertainty over an upcoming jobs report.
Then, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen talk about the potential need for interest rate hikes further exacerbated the tech selloff, as investors worry higher rates would weigh on valuations of growth companies.
Wednesday: After the fall of yesterday, bulls tried a pull back with success.
$GER30 rose from around 2%, despite the PMI indicators which were medium.
Moreover, the result of the survey from ADP on jobs helps $GER30 to continue the rise.
Thursday: Fear of inflation compensate the optimism of bulls but finally $GER30 finished in green.
Friday: The optimism on US jobs report pushed $GER30 to the top but when the news came out, the disappointment encourage $GER30 to fall until the bull looked at the $NSDQ100 and realize that it was not such a bad news (thinking at the speech of Yellen earlier in the week).
This week, I took the opportunity given by Janet Yellen to reduce my exposure on $GER30 because even if an important fall is coming and I be part of it, it seems to be postponed to June ;-) . I decided to keep around 10% of my portfolio on $GER30 in case an event urge it.
My perspective for next week:
- 50% : $GER30 stay in the range 15176- 15412;
- 20%: $GER30 rise to is top 15514 and don’t go higher;
- 20%: $GER30 fall under 15176;
- 10%: $GER30 rise over is top.
What to follow next week?
Globally:
- The situation in India and the possible discovery of an Indian coronavirus case in Germany or in Europe.
- Inflation: the rise of petrol and other raw material, moreover most of the country are giving their inflations number for April.
- The US 10 years interest rates.
Day by day:
- Monday: Calm;
- Tuesday: Inflation in China (PPI), German and UE ZEW economic sentiment, US JOLTs Jobs opening and OPEP monthly report on $OIL;
- Wednesday (the big day!):
- Inflation: UK, Germany, France, US and India
- UK: GDP and Manufacturing Production;
- US: Crude Oil;
- Thursday: US: initial jobless claims and PPI (which affects inflation).
- Friday: ECB Monetary Policy, US Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales ans Michigan Inflation Expectations.
I wish you a good trading week,
Please feel free to ask me questions, I will be glad to connect with you over the comments or by private messages.
Stay safe,
Alexandre
This week, I offer my analysis of the movements of $GER30 during the week and my outlook for next week.
Have nice reading and be pleased to comment if you want.
So, what happens last week?
Monday: After a smaller progress in the European PMI than expected, which caused a fall in the morning.
The worst news of the day on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, 60.7 whereas the consensus expected 65.0 and the PMI of March was 64.7, didn’t have any impact on GER30.
GER30 climbed on Monday, pushed by energy and materials on signs of an ongoing recovery because the reopening of the economy is still in a good way.
Tuesday: a big correction occurred.
First of all, investors dumped growth stocks to seek shelter in more defensive parts of the market, amid concerns on rising interest rate and uncertainty over an upcoming jobs report.
Then, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen talk about the potential need for interest rate hikes further exacerbated the tech selloff, as investors worry higher rates would weigh on valuations of growth companies.
Wednesday: After the fall of yesterday, bulls tried a pull back with success.
$GER30 rose from around 2%, despite the PMI indicators which were medium.
Moreover, the result of the survey from ADP on jobs helps $GER30 to continue the rise.
Thursday: Fear of inflation compensate the optimism of bulls but finally $GER30 finished in green.
Friday: The optimism on US jobs report pushed $GER30 to the top but when the news came out, the disappointment encourage $GER30 to fall until the bull looked at the $NSDQ100 and realize that it was not such a bad news (thinking at the speech of Yellen earlier in the week).
This week, I took the opportunity given by Janet Yellen to reduce my exposure on $GER30 because even if an important fall is coming and I be part of it, it seems to be postponed to June ;-) . I decided to keep around 10% of my portfolio on $GER30 in case an event urge it.
My perspective for next week:
- 50% : $GER30 stay in the range 15176- 15412;
- 20%: $GER30 rise to is top 15514 and don’t go higher;
- 20%: $GER30 fall under 15176;
- 10%: $GER30 rise over is top.
What to follow next week?
Globally:
- The situation in India and the possible discovery of an Indian coronavirus case in Germany or in Europe.
- Inflation: the rise of petrol and other raw material, moreover most of the country are giving their inflations number for April.
- The US 10 years interest rates.
Day by day:
- Monday: Calm;
- Tuesday: Inflation in China (PPI), German and UE ZEW economic sentiment, US JOLTs Jobs opening and OPEP monthly report on $OIL;
- Wednesday (the big day!):
- Inflation: UK, Germany, France, US and India
- UK: GDP and Manufacturing Production;
- US: Crude Oil;
- Thursday: US: initial jobless claims and PPI (which affects inflation).
- Friday: ECB Monetary Policy, US Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales ans Michigan Inflation Expectations.
I wish you a good trading week,
Please feel free to ask me questions, I will be glad to connect with you over the comments or by private messages.
Stay safe,
Alexandre