Griffon Harmonics: Monthly Bat/Crab Confluence
Griffon Corp. is a diversified management and holding company, which conducts business through its subsidiaries. It provides direction and assistance to its subsidiaries in connection with acquisition and growth opportunities. It operates through the Consumer and Professional Products and Home and Building Products segments. The Consumer and Professional Products segment sells products globally through a portfolio of brands including True Temper, AMES, and ClosetMaid. The Home and Building Products segment conducts its operations through Clopay. GFF Highs a very good quant score of 5-6, high analyst ratings for buy and hold, plus a okay dividend payout per fiscal year.
In this idea, we have a deep-crab pattern and bat-pattern showing us that price should reverse from a bottom between 12.47 - 9.94. This is a discount of approximately 75% from the high. I expect price to reverse right at 11.27, to form a bottoming pattern. This bottom should arrive somewhere around the beginning of the year 2026. I would set the stop-loss for 3%; however, I'd consider averaging into a position on this trade, if price goes below the stop (I don't expect it to). I would sell my position at the "B point" of the harmonic pattern, between 25.97 - 26.85. After price has reached the half-way point between entry and exit, I would set stop-loss runners to trail price by the 'Average True Range' of monthly and weekly timeframes. The target nets 130% (Risk-to-Reward of 43.21). Adding for the dividend (I would expect to hold this for at least one year), one would profit approximately 131.6% of their original investment.
Plugging in the probability for success of a deep-crab pattern and the R:R values into our Kelly Criterion betting calculator for an account of $1000, we get;
TARGET
Probability: 0.93
Odds: 43.21
Bankroll:$1000
Calculation:
Kelly Criterion (Adjusted) - 0.9284
Bet This Much (Adjusted) - $928.38
Therefore, one should bet approximately 92.84% of their normal lot size. Good luck and trade safely!
In this idea, we have a deep-crab pattern and bat-pattern showing us that price should reverse from a bottom between 12.47 - 9.94. This is a discount of approximately 75% from the high. I expect price to reverse right at 11.27, to form a bottoming pattern. This bottom should arrive somewhere around the beginning of the year 2026. I would set the stop-loss for 3%; however, I'd consider averaging into a position on this trade, if price goes below the stop (I don't expect it to). I would sell my position at the "B point" of the harmonic pattern, between 25.97 - 26.85. After price has reached the half-way point between entry and exit, I would set stop-loss runners to trail price by the 'Average True Range' of monthly and weekly timeframes. The target nets 130% (Risk-to-Reward of 43.21). Adding for the dividend (I would expect to hold this for at least one year), one would profit approximately 131.6% of their original investment.
Plugging in the probability for success of a deep-crab pattern and the R:R values into our Kelly Criterion betting calculator for an account of $1000, we get;
TARGET
Probability: 0.93
Odds: 43.21
Bankroll:$1000
Calculation:
Kelly Criterion (Adjusted) - 0.9284
Bet This Much (Adjusted) - $928.38
Therefore, one should bet approximately 92.84% of their normal lot size. Good luck and trade safely!