CalebDismuke
Long

Still biased to the long side(GOLD)

AMEX:GLD   SPDR GOLD TRUST GOLD SHARES NPV
GLD held the broken trendline and the $110 level.

The price action at these levels does not jump off the screen at me, meaning it looks shaky IMO .

I would not be surprised if we revisit $100.

I still believe the long-term R/R is to the upside from these levels.

I will be looking to buy dips b/w 100-110. I would stop out under 100.

Let's breakdown the R/R.

I am willing to risk up to $12 to the downside.

I like the upside to be 3x my risk. My initial upside target is $147.75-(3*12)+111.75.

In trading you are looking for positive expected value propositions.

To get this you take the probability of loss times the amount of possible loss from the probability of gain times the amount of possible gain.

It is an imperfect measure, but it allows you to frame your trades on a consistent basis so you can compare what the best available trades are at a given moment.

Any comments or question, please leave below, look forward to hearing your opinions.

Caleb
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