I have drawn out the resistance levels for gold based on the supply that halted the last two advances. We happen to be bumping into the supply here, which is why the price is just sitting here, in my opinion.
How will this market will unfold to capture the most amount of people on one side of the market? Once that happens we will have a great trade setup. Right now we wait.
Cheers to all. Technical Tim Friday, Feb 18, 2012 10:35AM EST
You dismiss non-anecdotal evidence by saying the “future is not the past.” Granted. However, if a set of conditions existed several to many times in the past and I applied an investing strategy each time and lost money, I’d be pretty confident that I’d lose money with the strategy in the future. By the same token, just because I caught a big tuna a couple times doesn’t convince me that I will have fishing success again in the future. Drawing conclusions based on small samples (fishing) can be very risky.
I have a long-standing policy that I don’t invest using a particular strategy until I have some solid evidence that it would have produced better profits over the long term in the past than what the strategy did that I am already using.
I can think of at least three ways to produce non-anecdotal evidence. (A) Back-test the strategy over an extended period of time to determine how much profit it makes. (B) Forward-test it over an extended period of time. (C) Invest money in it and determine the resulting IRR.
Over the years, I have read / heard about hundreds of strategies. This web site probably has hundreds of them. For all I know, you are a genius and have become wealthy with your investment strategy. However, how can I conclude that yours is any better than the others?
I don’t mean to particularly pick on you. I just started trying out this web site and I will likely have the same reaction to strategies offered by other people. I can only ask, hope, that, in addition to describing their investment strategies, that people will back-test them over extended periods on time and share the results. We’re all looking for an investing strategy that materially out-performs the Long Term Buy and Hold strategy. But, how can we separate the wheat from the chaff?
I would suggest that anyone who is inclined to think along these lines read David Aronson’s book, Evidence Based Technical Analysis.
As for "back-testing" and such: I've watched systems that have worked for decades bankrupt a firm (Nick Leeson at Barings, using a 50-200 day moving average cross) that forgot to apply money management in their effort to make money or to "be right". I have designed many systems that seem to be great in back-testing, walk-forward-testing and yet they still needed adjustments after short periods of time. I gave up on that effort because it truly isn't what I "believe" works or shall I say it isn't what I want to be doing each day. I like to think for myself and figure out when the "crowd" has positioned itself in such a way to create a low-risk entry.
As for my strategy, what is missing at this site is how much risk is in each trade to the overall portfolio. Furthermore, what is also missing is the portfolio of trades that are "on". Also, I may use options to get exposure instead of outright positions. At some point, that layer of information can be added so you can see the P&L of the collection of ideas with an NAV associated with it, perhaps like Covestor's website. That may help you see if the strategy (me) is making money or not.
To summarize my performance: Since September when I started posting ideas to this website as a journal-entry or blog-type of experience, I would imagine that I have made money each month, but I also have positions that you don't see listed here on this site because they were in the portfolio prior to September.
I am not perfect by any means and I do make losing trades with regularity, but I don't get upset by them. I am very good at holding onto winning trades and adjusting my stops as they develop.
I will take a peek at David Aronson's book on TA.
(I have a fever, so I reserve the right to go back and edit these comments :-)
If I were to describe my overall strategy, it would go along the following lines:
1. Buy value. Own companies that have great free-cash-flow and add to positions when bad news occurs. Also, sell call-options to generate additional income when stocks get a bit overvalued.
2. Buy after bad news has driven an asset down to a decent price and when it has shaken out most technical analysis players. Mutual fund portfolio managers usually take a few days to finish selling after bad news.
3. Watch how the news impacts the market. If good news can't rally a market, then it is time to get out. When bad news can't drive a market down, then it is time to consider buying.
4. Avoid, at all costs, gambling ahead of quarterly earnings releases. I find it is far safer to wait for after the news to assess what to do.
5. Sell short companies that are overvalued and have weak relative strength recently (versus the market).
6. If you are anxious about an idea, it may be because the position size is too high or that you haven't done your homework. Anxiety is a great barometer to help you.
I'm going to leave it at this for today. I'll await your reply and see if anyone else has comments to continue this thread.
Tim 11:34AM EST, March 1st, 2012
Don't if it's possible, but it would be great to have a "portfolio" feature here. just to show and test different ideas from the community members here. Will make the request
Our approaches are close to night and day from this standpoint. I rarely pay attention to news. I am a trend follower and believe that the price trend reflects the views of many, many people, not just what mine might be which could be wrong.
Continued success with your investing.
Tim West wrote :
I sure enjoy the mudslinging in here – it is better than a tennis match. I’ll try to summarize – we sure agree that it is important to protect ourselves from the Government’s printing 7 trillion worth of dollars ($3 trillion by our faithful Fed and $4 trillion by the ECB). However, when the market cannot rally on the announcement of all of these injections and investments AND when China announces that they expect to grow slower (and consume less “stuff” relatively speaking), then the game has changed. The fact that the largest speculative positions are now LONG gold is a sign that the buyers and holders of gold have something to prove. The sellers have the upper hand now and it is just a matter of time to see what they do with it. How bad you beat your opponent when you have the advantage is a matter of sport and helps set the tone for future “games” together. If you had control of the gold market, where would you send it? Down a little or down a lot? Perhaps down “medium” to flush out most of the players? What is your vote?"
I'm new to the site and I must say that my jaw dropped at the quality of these browser based charts. They are great. Really spectacular. Though option time decay is where i focus my trading energy, it accounts for less than 20% of my portfolio. Mostly I trade the intermediate term, investing with technical analysis supported by macroeconomic market study. I'm only so so as a directional trader, and I respect the art of successful swing traders. I hope to pick up some insight here and get better at it. I'm an experienced option spread trader and know a few strategies very strategies well, and trade even fewer proficiently. I'm willing to help anyone struggling to learn them