Gold is Targeting #1,778.80, my Selling entry point very near

Gold's general commentary: As discussed, Gold’s Price-action could be very Volatile to be predicted with accuracy in the Short and Medium-term; however, they behave cyclically in relation to DX and Bond Yields (in some cases, Stock markets and Usd-Jpy pair). This knowledge opens a door for better understanding the behavior of Gold's Prices in the Medium and Long-term. As Gold is a commodity / metal, it tends to behave in a positive relation to energy Prices and in a negative relation with financial markets and macro-economic indicators. It is so, since Gold is seen as a safe-haven when hazardous times hit the global economy, and taken to a second place when the economy is doing well and thus it is more attractive to invest in companies than in Gold itself. Although the supply of Gold on the international markets is negligibly increased by small gains in production and some Central banking policies, these increases are not enough to meet the demand that has been going on since the financial crisis of #2008, resulting in a Gold deficit for covering a Stock market and macro-economic downfall that may occur. In other words, the supply of Gold, although increasing slightly in absolute terms, is generally decreasing in terms of availability in this kind of circumstances. The Gold rush then is predicted to be stronger after #2021 Year and a repetition of history would take place if that happens, that is, Gold Prices would decrease dramatically as the DX should engage a rally.


Fundamental analysis prior to Medium-term: One of the bigger charts caught my attention where ATH from #1,980 Year was Sold back later on. Second ATH, Year #2008 (Housing crisis), Gold engaged the aggressive takedown on the aftermath. Another ATH seen on August #2011, was Sold instantly and engaged multi-Week Descending Channel. Many similarities with current fractal has another August ATH (#2020 Year), where Gold engaged serious decline and is currently Trading below that level. As Gold is cyclical asset, according to my model, Gold tends to struggle after pricing new ATH, as soon High is priced, aggressive takedown occurs and Price-action forms Long-term Descending Channel, and that’s why I am heavily on Bearish side (Selling every High) as Shorting is the best way to make Profits as a retail Trader. Keep in mind that with this Trading week's macro-economic Fundamentals all positive wise for DX, the market was yet again perfectly timed for strong Bearish takedown. The only important reports left are Fed minutes and NFP. The latest eruption in the U.S. - China Trade dispute pushed a widely watched Treasury market recession indicator to the Highest alert since #2007. Rates on Bond Yields sank aggressively, completely erasing the surge that followed Trump’s #2016 election. At one point, they yielded #32 basis points less than #3-Month bills, the most extreme Yield curve inversion since the lead-up to the #2008 crisis. Gold could be in a significantly Lower-rate environment for a while. The outlook for Medium-term configuration on Gold declines resonated in options markets, too, which Price-action is Targeting typically a drop through #1% on #Q1. If current #1,759.80 benchmark isn't broken, I also note the potential for a further leg upwards in the Bond Yields curve. Potentially, the curve starts to rise since Fed is being pressured by a combination of data and obviously downside risks on the market, which advises retail Traders to be more careful. Heavy Buying in Fed funds futures contracts since the Fed delivered its quarter-point reduction lately means the market is now pricing in another reduction. My formula points that the signal from the curve suggests money markets should be pricing in a Higher probability of the Fed’s policy rate unchanged all the way towards #Q2 (as I was right on each Fed minutes). Keep in mind that my approach is Swing Trading (Long-term positions) within quarterly cycles and my goal is identifying the correct trend for a longer period of time, even if it lags to a small extent.


Technical analysis: It is evident on current market configuration is that there is a clear Descending Channel on bigger proportion charts and on smaller time-frames, Gold is Trading above all Pivot points also invalidating all Resistances in the same manner, which are traditionally instantly Sold. Expect a corrective drop / takedown towards #1,778.80, after possible #1,805.80 Lower High’s test (happening currently), consolidation around Stabilization area as equity holders / Investors digest the news and evaluate their strategy. Gold didn’t clearly accumulated all the panic capital from Bond Yields and is bound to give some back. On Weekly (#1W) basis and as a result of strong Williams%, my Target remains #1,678.80. My Daily chart’s indicators still provide the safe Selling zone as they still haven't readjusted to the aggressive (today’s session) decline. I will approach today’s session with extreme caution and keep an eye on Indicators turning Bearish. Gold is far from breaking Weekly chart’s Descending channel and what Supports Selling is Technical projection which is not pointing on Bullish sustainability regarding both Short and Medium-term. Both ways, Gold is eyeing for Medium-term aggressive takedown.


My position: As I am looking at a decent chance to continue my #8 Profits run, Price-action is very close to my Selling entry point of #1,800.80. If #1,800.80 barrier breaks, I will Sell Gold on spot towards #1,778.80 extension. There is only #1 strong Support ahead of #1,778.80 Higher Low's extension, which is seen Trading at #1,798.80, which adds strong confidence to Sellers.