Buying bias very limited / Fed minutes on main stage

Gold's general commentary: #1,800.80 first Target was concluded already, along with the Hourly 4 chart’s Support of #1,797.80 break which was on the cards, Gold was Trading on it’s much anticipated Lower High’s zone. The Hourly 4 chart merely rejected the Price-action and since November #24, every marginal rejection near the #1,832.80 peak was followed with #35 point further decline (calls for #1,778.80 once Support breaks) which turned into a rebound on the aftermath. However, since Daily chart's #MA200 rejected the Price-action, it was natural to expect a bounce back to #1,821.80 Resistance and if broken, as today’s session market closing is crucial regarding week’s trend continuation. The anticipated U.S. data should have a positive impact on Bond Yields and negative wise on Gold but not if the DX start losing again (as Gold is much more positively correlated lately to Bond Yields and partly with DX, only on #4 out of #21 sessions). It is vital to understand that with the risks involved on a Weekly scale, only if February #23 High of #1,817.80 is crossed and market closes above the point, Buying Gold will add to confidence, and re-Sell zone will be invalidated. Daily chart demonstrates that this is a Profit taking favoured zone since March #2014 (ADX # Low inclination) as Bearish momentum is expected to be utilized to it’s maximum. I can note with certainty that Medium-term Bearish trend is on a very own start. Hourly 4 chart should turn into Descending Channel and progressively test Higher Low levels, but for now I will remain on sidelines waiting for #1,805.80 and #1,798.80 break. Today’s session has #90.17% chances to be the trend setter and with a major move on the aftermath, pointing me to be extra careful as U.S. opening Bell approaches. Strong Bid/Ask Volume usually reveals that strong movement session is ahead, and if Gold breaks the Support, could easily engage Higher Low sequence and even deeper test below #1,750.80 psychological barrier, breaking the violent Volatility belt Gold is Trading within for a while. Upper extension remains #1,832.80, as I doubt that Gold will pierce it with Bond Yields and DX (was) on such aggressively Bullish Price-action. Especially since Daily chart is about to turn Bearish again. Since Gold was rejected instantly above the Support on Hourly 4 chart, I will treat #1,800.80 as an Bottom, with the next Technical stop on the #1,778.80 zone if Bottom gets invalidated. At this point I would like to share a key landmark on the monthly scale - Gold hasn’t still harmonized with DX. Bullish reversal is only sustainable if #1,832.80 is broken, but by my calculations, chances are slim regarding that outlook as I am not interested in further Buying.


Technical analysis: Personally, I am confident that once again, downtrend continuation was manually prevented by market speculators, with DX near #52-Week High's and Bond Yields on Annual High's, one could not expect Gold to soar on more than #15 points Intra-day, as current move on Gold was random by all means. Market speculators are preventing full scale oscillation towards Lower levels #5 times in a row now, Buying back every Low and keeping the Price-action within Neutral belt. Gold shows High durability on a near new Intra-day High but there are certain aspects that make me sceptical on whether or not this can be sustainable. Those are: Extremely strong uptrend on Bond Yields with the #10Y near the February High's. In addition to that the DX should reverse Intra-day and should be near a #4-session High. And on top of that, Gold is ignoring main correlation I found recently, Real Yields, which was the driver for the last #7 sessions. Based on the above, Gold shouldn’t be above its #1,805.80 Short-term Support. However, with the further Fed game and always changing tightening speculations (adding Volatility almost on Hourly basis, visible on every candle), I won't be surprised to see a very negative trend on Gold on the Fed minutes aftermath, subsequently adding Selling pressure on Gold. My advice would be to wait for the right opportunity to add Selling orders and that's definitely not now ahead of U.S. session opening Bell. Similar cycle has happened on December #17, December #28 and January #2, where every High was Sold towards the Short-term Support, but this time, I am expecting Selling sustainability once the Price-action Trades below the Support comfortably. Remember, capital preservation is equally important as an Profitable call. On this tight Price-action, I have no other alternative than to approach with strict Risk management and await Normal market conditions.


My position: As Daily chart's #MA200 was preserved throughout the yesterday's session (#1,797.80) I remained on sidelines without a Profitable pattern, and decision seemed to work out as Gold is on recovery candles. However, I am confident that Buying bias is limited and I will await a decent opportunity to Sell Gold towards #1,778.80. If #1,814.80 breaks, next Technical stop is #1,805.80 Support, where I will be ready to Sell Gold towards #1,778.80 or less.