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I am assuming the arrow shows a higher low in price action, I will have to see if this bears out. But, for a minute lets take the rally from 1687 to 1919 as being the first push in a larger secular bull market. There are a lot of reasons to suspect that this is possible including:
- Massive Federal and other Central Bank money printing and direct stimulus payments,
- Rather concerning central bank debt issues around the world. In those countries that lend in their sovereign currency, this will tend to depress central bank bond yields (through central banks forcing yields down through necessity) - there is no possible way to repay the principal in anything but a highly devalued (future) currency.
- The US 10 year treasury yield is down a wee bit from recent local highs and is now around negative 3% real yield (yield 1.2% minus 5% inflation). The safest possible investment security provides is a guaranteed loss. Why hold the US 10 year when average gold returns since 2000 average 9.3% in USD terms since 2000 (goldprice dot org as at 8th Jul 2021?
I am getting side-tracked. There are other fundamental factors. Of the others; I find the fact that gold has zero counter-party risk one of the most attractive. Anyhoo, back to my speculative rant..
IF, the move from 1687 to 1919 was part of a longer-term rally, that has retraced slightly more that 62% before bouncing. If you put any stock in Elliot Wave, that would be wave 1 and 2 (potentially), and wave 2 normally retraces the previous gains sharply and deeply. A steep retrace of 50% or more is common. If we have wave 1 and 2 in place, there are three more moves to go (2 impulsive up and 1 corrective that tends to be shallower, take longer, and be more complex). If this bears out, I would put 2140 as a low-side estimate.
There is some bullish RSI divergence on the 4hr chart that developed between April and this week.
The MACD histogram and moving averages are looking like crossing over to the upside.
But who knows, the daily MACD looks a bit grim. Only time will tell. Look after those funds and avoid unallocated precious metals derivatives, synthetics, and paper gold.
I am assuming the arrow shows a higher low in price action, I will have to see if this bears out. But, for a minute lets take the rally from 1687 to 1919 as being the first push in a larger secular bull market. There are a lot of reasons to suspect that this is possible including:
- Massive Federal and other Central Bank money printing and direct stimulus payments,
- Rather concerning central bank debt issues around the world. In those countries that lend in their sovereign currency, this will tend to depress central bank bond yields (through central banks forcing yields down through necessity) - there is no possible way to repay the principal in anything but a highly devalued (future) currency.
- The US 10 year treasury yield is down a wee bit from recent local highs and is now around negative 3% real yield (yield 1.2% minus 5% inflation). The safest possible investment security provides is a guaranteed loss. Why hold the US 10 year when average gold returns since 2000 average 9.3% in USD terms since 2000 (goldprice dot org as at 8th Jul 2021?
I am getting side-tracked. There are other fundamental factors. Of the others; I find the fact that gold has zero counter-party risk one of the most attractive. Anyhoo, back to my speculative rant..
IF, the move from 1687 to 1919 was part of a longer-term rally, that has retraced slightly more that 62% before bouncing. If you put any stock in Elliot Wave, that would be wave 1 and 2 (potentially), and wave 2 normally retraces the previous gains sharply and deeply. A steep retrace of 50% or more is common. If we have wave 1 and 2 in place, there are three more moves to go (2 impulsive up and 1 corrective that tends to be shallower, take longer, and be more complex). If this bears out, I would put 2140 as a low-side estimate.
There is some bullish RSI divergence on the 4hr chart that developed between April and this week.
The MACD histogram and moving averages are looking like crossing over to the upside.
But who knows, the daily MACD looks a bit grim. Only time will tell. Look after those funds and avoid unallocated precious metals derivatives, synthetics, and paper gold.
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