Gold on over-extended recovery / #1,792.80 Target to monitor
Gold's general commentary: Gold has hit the #1,845.80 Resistance (posing as an Support on February #15 configuration) and struggled to get past it. However unless #1,823.80 breaks, I can't call for a continuation of a downtrend, even though the dominant Hourly 4 chart’s pattern is an Neutral Rectangle. As a result I suggest to continue operating with Selling orders, this #2-consecutive session corrective consolidation, monitoring the Bear and Bull clash / which side would prevail as I give more probabilities to the downside.
Technical analysis: Interesting cycle caught my attention (August #15 - September #26) where current fractal has many similarities with. Selling sequence which started on August #15, found the Support (August #22 Bottom), and engaged relief rally. Within #1 session, Price-action delivered another slide, which was once again altered throughout September #1 session. Naturally, relief rally occurred, where Gold delivered #2 more declines (September #13, September #23), which represents cycle which have lasted for #42-session horizon. I have spotted similar sequence currently, where Selling sequence has began on February #2 (non-stop decline) which so far delivered #3 declines and #3 (#3 - #5 session) relief rallies. If Gold honours the cycle and repeats it, expect one more downturn opportunity towards #1,792.80 - #1,800.80 strong Support zone (which is so far showcasing strong durability) as there are #14 sessions left for the Price-action to replicate the fractal. Keep in mind that December #5 trendline was invalidated on full scale Bullish breakout, means that every time sequence was Trading widely above or below, it always touched #MA50 on Daily chart since early November, so realize the significance of #MA50 in current sequence. Current parabolic decline should be far from over, and after eminent #1,800.80 benchmark test, expect approximate #100 point correction towards #1,862.80 - #1,872.80 Resistance zone first, and if invalidated, #1,900.80 psychological benchmark in continuation.
Fundamental analysis: Fundamentally, the Fed delivered assurances that the markets needed and Powell gave more than was expected, pledging for more Years of battle against the Inflation, as long as that state lasts, DX will constantly suffer Short and Medium-term declines in form of aggressive spikes. It is important to note that #1,823.80 pressure point will provide the sentiment for the next #1 - #3 session horizon. Spot how today’s session miraculous recovery on DX, wasn’t fairly symmetrical with Gold’s Price-action, where Gold should be significantly Lower under the circumstances. Price-action is near my estimated #1,842.80 - #1,852.80 Resistance zone where I expected first wave of recovery candles to arrive. On #5 successive Hourly 4 chart’s candles (February #28 - March #1), Price-action was under total Bullish domination which revived Buyers, however, Daily chart’s Volume remains strong as relief rally is showing signs of exhaustion (pricing a Top here, temporary or not). Gold is isolated within the consolidation phase on Hourly 4 chart (in form of a Neutral Rectangle), inside the final sessions of current Selling sequence. If however #1,845.80 Resistance breaks, #1,852.80 and #1,862.80 will represent optimal Targets for Buyers. Break of #1,823.80 Support of utmost importance can be distinguished as an confirmation for #1,800.80 psychological benchmark test.
Technical analysis: Interesting cycle caught my attention (August #15 - September #26) where current fractal has many similarities with. Selling sequence which started on August #15, found the Support (August #22 Bottom), and engaged relief rally. Within #1 session, Price-action delivered another slide, which was once again altered throughout September #1 session. Naturally, relief rally occurred, where Gold delivered #2 more declines (September #13, September #23), which represents cycle which have lasted for #42-session horizon. I have spotted similar sequence currently, where Selling sequence has began on February #2 (non-stop decline) which so far delivered #3 declines and #3 (#3 - #5 session) relief rallies. If Gold honours the cycle and repeats it, expect one more downturn opportunity towards #1,792.80 - #1,800.80 strong Support zone (which is so far showcasing strong durability) as there are #14 sessions left for the Price-action to replicate the fractal. Keep in mind that December #5 trendline was invalidated on full scale Bullish breakout, means that every time sequence was Trading widely above or below, it always touched #MA50 on Daily chart since early November, so realize the significance of #MA50 in current sequence. Current parabolic decline should be far from over, and after eminent #1,800.80 benchmark test, expect approximate #100 point correction towards #1,862.80 - #1,872.80 Resistance zone first, and if invalidated, #1,900.80 psychological benchmark in continuation.
Fundamental analysis: Fundamentally, the Fed delivered assurances that the markets needed and Powell gave more than was expected, pledging for more Years of battle against the Inflation, as long as that state lasts, DX will constantly suffer Short and Medium-term declines in form of aggressive spikes. It is important to note that #1,823.80 pressure point will provide the sentiment for the next #1 - #3 session horizon. Spot how today’s session miraculous recovery on DX, wasn’t fairly symmetrical with Gold’s Price-action, where Gold should be significantly Lower under the circumstances. Price-action is near my estimated #1,842.80 - #1,852.80 Resistance zone where I expected first wave of recovery candles to arrive. On #5 successive Hourly 4 chart’s candles (February #28 - March #1), Price-action was under total Bullish domination which revived Buyers, however, Daily chart’s Volume remains strong as relief rally is showing signs of exhaustion (pricing a Top here, temporary or not). Gold is isolated within the consolidation phase on Hourly 4 chart (in form of a Neutral Rectangle), inside the final sessions of current Selling sequence. If however #1,845.80 Resistance breaks, #1,852.80 and #1,862.80 will represent optimal Targets for Buyers. Break of #1,823.80 Support of utmost importance can be distinguished as an confirmation for #1,800.80 psychological benchmark test.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
