Buying bias very limited / Gold still within Bear cycle
Gold's general commentary: Constant DX weakness is postponing my Selling model, and the fact that Gold still didn't peaked with a Lower High’s Lower zone, leads me to believe that it is being used as a hedge instrument against renewed Inflation fears. However, Hourly 4 chart’s Technicals suggest that if #1,842.80 breaks, (the Hourly 4 chart’s Ascending Channel is invalidated) and Gold should should test the #1,817.80 Support in extension. It is Highly important to note, statistically / when Gold Trades on such configuration (ignoring the correlating instruments) Volume for #7 - #17 sessions, aggressive decline occurs on the aftermath. (September #14 - #21, October #1 - #6, October #8 - #13 #2020. fractal on Hourly 4 chart), as I don’t see reason why Gold shouldn’t repeat it’s Short-term cycle. When the Daily chart’s Ascending Channel’s rejection point turns into strong Resistance (rejecting any recovery attempt in extension), Gold tends to pull back roughly #50 points (#1,916.80 - #1,903.80, as it did on August #20 - #27, #2020). This Price action is beyond doubt not related to the essential Technical rules, so I’ll approach with extreme caution, as any Technical rules do not apply on such sessions. As discussed, unless the Hourly 4 chart’s Support breaks at #1,842.80 and market closes below it, I can't be expecting a sustainable correction. Personally, I believe these are the right circumstances for Gold to test the Daily chart’s Support zone again, once the DX stabilizes.
Fundamental analysis: Throughout Friday’s session, Traders witnessed how Fundamentals (Gold’s Price-action very sensitive to DX on mild decline and totally ignoring motion when DX is trending upwards) can momentarily distort Technical trends, as an seemingly Bearish Hourly 4 chart’s candle closed the market on positive fashion. Bullish Daily chart’s trend of Ascending Channel still weighs but on predominantly Neutral to Bullish bias, since Gold is still Trading above the #1,848.80 Bullish variance and pressure point. If my Weekly (#1W) regressional analysis is correct on a future Bearish Weekly chart’s candle succession, then early Monday’s E.U. session late U.S. session opening Bell, Gold should Trade below #1,848.80 variance and close the session in losses. As discussed, the proposed Channel which I mentioned in my previous remarks is still dominating the Trade. Since then a Weekly Engulfing Bearish reversal pattern should negate most of the gains which are delivered at the moment, as the EPS by Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan beat the estimates, spurring excitement on Wall Street and making Investors relocate again their capital from riskier assets to Gold (as an well known safe-haven in High demand).
Technical analysis: Despite this, Gold is still a Sell option, as since breaking #1,842.80 - #1,833.80 Support zone should largely negate the positive bias of current Volatile week’s, making a Descending Channel on bigger charts practically cancelling out the Lower High’s attempt. Gold's greatest “success” last week was posting it's first Weekly chart’s Engulfing candle with gains since #3 straight on heavy losses which weren’t instantly Bought. Interesting cycle caught my attention where every Higher High’s peak that Gold delivered, engaged aggressive multi-Month Selling sequence where Gold dipped approximately (# -14.96%) to (# -16.70%). Those were from August #10, #2020 - March #1, #2021; April #18, #2022 - September #19, 2022 and January #30 - still Trading in progress. Each Selling sequence lasted minimum of #150 days where current Selling sequence is only on it’s #27th session / day. Aswell it is crucial to detect that within those configurations and declines, relief rallies were staged (current sequence has many similarities with May #16 - June #6) where Gold delivered Top near #1,877.80 pressure point, and delivered aggressive take-down of almost #200 points. If the sequence is translated to current market configuration, Gold is on healthy Bearish Medium and Long-term, with current relief rally very limited. Even if the Price-action closes the session above #1,848.80 pressure point once again, Buyer’s maximum is seen Trading within #1,862.80 - #1,867.80 belt. I am expecting values widely below #1,800.80 psychological benchmark within roughly #15 - #30 sessions. In addition, current recovery attempts are nothing more than typical correction processes within Gold’s (#1W) Weekly chart’s Medium and Long-term trend.
My position: As explained above, I am Highly sceptical regarding further Buying (even though Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is forming) as #1,862.80 Resistance should represent furthest point of relief rally extension and only if market closes above it, I will consider Buying. However, my re-Sell point is far away from current market Price so I will comfortably remain without the order and observe the Price-action from sidelines.
Fundamental analysis: Throughout Friday’s session, Traders witnessed how Fundamentals (Gold’s Price-action very sensitive to DX on mild decline and totally ignoring motion when DX is trending upwards) can momentarily distort Technical trends, as an seemingly Bearish Hourly 4 chart’s candle closed the market on positive fashion. Bullish Daily chart’s trend of Ascending Channel still weighs but on predominantly Neutral to Bullish bias, since Gold is still Trading above the #1,848.80 Bullish variance and pressure point. If my Weekly (#1W) regressional analysis is correct on a future Bearish Weekly chart’s candle succession, then early Monday’s E.U. session late U.S. session opening Bell, Gold should Trade below #1,848.80 variance and close the session in losses. As discussed, the proposed Channel which I mentioned in my previous remarks is still dominating the Trade. Since then a Weekly Engulfing Bearish reversal pattern should negate most of the gains which are delivered at the moment, as the EPS by Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan beat the estimates, spurring excitement on Wall Street and making Investors relocate again their capital from riskier assets to Gold (as an well known safe-haven in High demand).
Technical analysis: Despite this, Gold is still a Sell option, as since breaking #1,842.80 - #1,833.80 Support zone should largely negate the positive bias of current Volatile week’s, making a Descending Channel on bigger charts practically cancelling out the Lower High’s attempt. Gold's greatest “success” last week was posting it's first Weekly chart’s Engulfing candle with gains since #3 straight on heavy losses which weren’t instantly Bought. Interesting cycle caught my attention where every Higher High’s peak that Gold delivered, engaged aggressive multi-Month Selling sequence where Gold dipped approximately (# -14.96%) to (# -16.70%). Those were from August #10, #2020 - March #1, #2021; April #18, #2022 - September #19, 2022 and January #30 - still Trading in progress. Each Selling sequence lasted minimum of #150 days where current Selling sequence is only on it’s #27th session / day. Aswell it is crucial to detect that within those configurations and declines, relief rallies were staged (current sequence has many similarities with May #16 - June #6) where Gold delivered Top near #1,877.80 pressure point, and delivered aggressive take-down of almost #200 points. If the sequence is translated to current market configuration, Gold is on healthy Bearish Medium and Long-term, with current relief rally very limited. Even if the Price-action closes the session above #1,848.80 pressure point once again, Buyer’s maximum is seen Trading within #1,862.80 - #1,867.80 belt. I am expecting values widely below #1,800.80 psychological benchmark within roughly #15 - #30 sessions. In addition, current recovery attempts are nothing more than typical correction processes within Gold’s (#1W) Weekly chart’s Medium and Long-term trend.
My position: As explained above, I am Highly sceptical regarding further Buying (even though Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is forming) as #1,862.80 Resistance should represent furthest point of relief rally extension and only if market closes above it, I will consider Buying. However, my re-Sell point is far away from current market Price so I will comfortably remain without the order and observe the Price-action from sidelines.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
