Gold still without a major move / Inverted H&S

Gold's general commentary: Gold is Trading on eminent side Swings as I realised that after yesterday's session traditional Fed decision (rate change as expected), it is important to monitor independently how the result will be interest hike or no hike - each result - except a very surprising and markets shaking interest hike by the Fed - will be DX friendly since it will move away the paralyzing fear of uncontrolled tightening. Based on my personal forecast, my estimation points that generally the Stock markets will continue with an aggressive decline and so called risk aversion will disappear. When risk taking is returning to the markets the U.S. Dollar will gain further against all major currencies. From my personal point of view the best opportunity is to shorten Gold on the Long-run. The anomaly in the Euro rate - the overvaluation - beginning since autumn #2021 will be reduced in steps during the next weeks and the Euro rate will return to the equilibrium rate, which is #5 -#10% Higher than today. DX is defined overvalued while I will continue to operating with my Selling orders on Gold. On Wednesday, Fed announced the biggest interest rate hike since #1,990's to stand against the Inflation.


Technical analysis: As expected, the failure to break #1,806.80 once again throughout yesterday’s session, brought a Lower High’s Lower zone test as the Price-action was approaching market closing. Price almost hit the #MA200, Trading at #1,843.80 while Gold is rebounding strongly, indicating that this is the strongest Support level on the Short-term. With Daily chart still Bearish marginally, I still favor Selling Gold on both Short and Medium-term, so I will await another opportunity to Sell Gold which may appear throughout early U.S. session. My Medium-term Target is still #1,752.80 psychological barrier. Keep in mind that current Gold’s weakness is directly attributed to the strong uptrend on DX, which has hit the local Top of its own Ascending Channel, so I am expecting a retrace (Gold and DX are diagonally correlated). Fed raised the rate as expected, but dovish surprise from Powell attracted Buyers on Fed’s aftermath. It is important to note that Selling potential is directly counterbalanced by inverted Head and Shoulders pattern on Hourly 4 chart, so since market is still in cautious mode, I assume no new orders and will only Buy Gold if Price-action breaks and closes the session above #MA200 on Hourly 4 chart.


My position: I am currently on sidelines, protecting my capital against sudden change of trends which traditional Volatility delivers on the High impact macro-economic announcements aftermath. #1,821.80 Low's test and break represents excellent Selling entry for Gold's Sellers (of course with DX on green Intra-day candles) is the opportunity worth taking. If Buying pressure on Gold intensifies, I will chose not to Trade this.