Gold may remain under heavy Selling pressure / Fed session

Gold's general commentary: Gold is Trading within an steep Descending Channel on Hourly 4 chart with the latest Weekly Low’s at #1,806.80 (representing configuration only few points from strong Support zone aswell) as the Lower High’s / Higher Low’s diagonal is priced at #1,827.80 - #1,831.80 extension. If Lower High’s zone gets invalidated to the upside, Selling bias is postponed (very slim chances). In my opinion, I should keep focusing on the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,806.80 strong Support level and enormous Selling pressure (from DX which will most likely remain strong for the week) which aims Lower Targets below the Hourly 4 chart’s first Support (such as #1,792.80 and #1,752.80 Medium-term Support) which is the key level and optimal Medium-term viable Target for Sellers. So as long as the Lower High’s Lower zone and Hourly 4 chart’s Support are intact, Gold will be under huge Volatility, following identical movements as DX, which is not advisable to Trade upon before the confirmation candles. Since #1,827.80 Support zone is broken and Price-action engaged decent reversal, solid chance exist for a re-test of #1,827.80 (even a Top of Higher Low’s zone at #1,831.80, if the #1,806.80 Support holds). As discussed, as long as those points are intact, Price-action fluctuation (which is evident on the charts) will continue to be visible and Gold will continue to Trade in Bearish fashion. I am expecting Fed’s aftermath to add even more pressure on Gold, where DX should continue with Buying sequence and strong possibility of Gold closing the weekly candle below #1,800.80 psychological barrier.


Technical analysis: If #1,827.80 Resistance breaks, Gold will most likely resume the Short-term recovery towards #1,848.80 (but if Dead Cat bounce reverses into a recovery which currently has slim chances), Buying bias is limited to a great extend. I doubt this week’s news are enough to push Gold through, most likely the market (and DX which is the key for Gold's recent struggles) is waiting for a catalyst. Statistically, every time from September #2 / when RSI get’s rejected near the Resistance (what is the case at the moment), Price-action starts the aggressive decline of #40$ points within #5 sessions. I am not yet interested in Buying, as there is only #3 strong Resistance lines between current Price-action and #1,852.80 extension, which seems far away from current variance. It is important to note that I am expecting Gold to finish June's cycle below #1,800.80 psychological barrier. I have awaited yesterday’s session PPI event, but report missed the estimates and added even more uncertainty to the markets and DX especially (hence DX is inversely Bullish for Gold).


Fundamental analysis: The Daily chart's #MA200 is holding as a Resistance in a similar way the July #30 - August #9 sequence did (just on the other side, representing an Support), as mentioned numerous times on my remarks, the current Selling sequence resembles that of August. Daily chart is about to turn Bearish once again aswell and on the Fed's aftermath, I expect the Price-action to post a Lower Low's at (or below) #1,800.80 barrier. The DX is keeping Gold Lower, otherwise, as mentioned on my previous posts, the #3-session rise on Bond Yields and Real Yields in particular, is practising enormous Selling pressure. I am expecting rate change on Fed minutes, with hawkish stance which can engage aggressive takedown on Gold. However, on dovish surprise, Gold may attract Buyers and add violent Volatility on Gold.


My position: As I am more than satisfied with my current Trading results, I won't Trade ahead of Fed minutes, as I will await the news outcome. Keep in mind that as long DX is not pressured by red numbers, Gold will be a Selling option.