goldenBear88

Gold near the Neutral Rectangle once again

Short
TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold's general commentary: Important Bond Yields related developments for Gold as DX broke the #96.30 Hourly 4 chart's Resistance as expected, should cause Gold to decline even more on the aftermath, as an Hourly 4 chart's Engulfing Bearish candle. The Higher Low rejection on Bond Yields (# +0.45%) is Technically call for an mini decline on Gold aswell, as I believe that crossing the Resistance level on Yields was the necessary Selling confirmation for Gold. I spotted connection of Gold aswell (# -0.15%) to Usd-Jpy pair (# +0.16%) which leaves Usd-Jpy totally in Gold correlations assets list. For now, I see only Bearish development on Hourly 4 chart, which shifted Gold from Neutral to almost Bearish regarding Short-term, with strong rejection near #1,815.80 - #1,818.80 Resistance cluster. According to statistics, last #4 times Gold touched the Higher High's extension, resulted as an #15 point decline, and another decline within #3 sessions, means if #1,800.80 breaks, I may see quiet a Bearish session on the aftermath. It is Natural to expect a pullback, but as long as Bond Yields are not pressured by disappointing numbers I expect smooth diagonal correlating (Bond Yields - Gold) Trading fueled by Inflation which will constantly impulse the Bond Yields purchase, and add strong Selling pressure on Gold. Strong Bid/Ask Volume usually reveals that strong movement session is ahead, and if Gold breaks the Support, could easily engage Lower Low's sequence and even deeper test of #1,759.80 ultimate Support zone, break of can extend the bigger proportion decline towards #1,588.80 (March #27, #2020 Year Bottom). Upper extension remains #1,818.80, as I doubt that Gold will pierce it, at least for this Year. Especially since Daily chart is critically Bearish again.


Technical analysis: Regarding Medium-term, Gold is surely Bearish as the new #9-Month Low is on the cards, but on the other hand - I cannot rule out the strong correction (identical as on June #29) as Gold became so clueless in the last Trading Month, testing High's which are instantly Sold and vice-versa. Bond Yields are still consolidating instead of rising on hopes of this better macroe-conomic outlook. In essence the one works as counter to the other, hence Gold stays ranged still near the Bottom (even below), visible on Daily chart configuration. This gives me the impression that Gold is more tied to the Bond Yields index movements at the moment than any other asset, so I will Trade accordingly and take it into consideration. The slightest Bullish upswing on Bond Yields should add Selling pressure on Gold. If #1,800.80 breaks, I will wait until it touches the Hourly 4 chart Support Trading at #1,797.80, contemplating Selling the market, and my Target will be #1,778.80.

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