goldenBear88

Gold's Short-term still very Neutral and indecisive

TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold's general commentary: Very flat Trading numbers since late E.U. session, ranged on the Hourly 1 chart within roughly #1,805.80 - #1,815.80 which are the Bollinger Bands optimal breakout zones. As long as it lasts, this makes an basic Neutral Rectangle Trading without any major changes. The Medium-trend remains fully Bearish but lately Technicals are easily distorted by Fundamental announcements, which are adding strong uncertainty on Bond Yields - directly affecting Gold. On a normal day/session and as U.S. opening Bell is approaching, I would take the opportunity gladly and engage my set of Selling orders, but this is not fair Technical value and proper trend so I am forced to wait more as I will not make any orders too early without a confirmation. DX is correcting losses and Bond Yields are comfortably Trading near the Resistance for #3-session horizon, mix which should practise Selling pressure on Gold, but due strong Buying pressure from Fundamental side, Gold is not on a decline, keeping #1,815.80 test as distinct possibility. #1,797.80 break constitutes that Buying bias is invalidated.


Technical analysis: Gold has finally entered the #1,805.80 - #1,815.80 Zone which has seasonally been the strongest Selling accumulation point since July. Daily chart is naturally stabilized as I shift my focus on Weekly and Monthly chart, both of which are calling for a Long-term Bearish sequence, but on the Short-term (with Hourly 4 chart's RSI near Overbought waters), Gold should be timed for downswing. The aftermath of Fed minutes climate should be the main driver behind this mild recovery on Gold and should be Sold immediately if #1,815.80 main Resistance rejects the additional gains. There is always an outside factor that drives the Price to the Resistance seasonally (mixed values on Bond Yields) but all are Bought there. It is possible to have Neutral #4 sessions period Trading within #1,800.80 - #1,815.80 before the Price-action breaks one of benchmarks though based on the #2018/2019 cycle, as historically, these are holiday times and usually this kind of sessions offers no strong Short-term conclusions. New Selling outlook on Gold will come as no Technical surprise since other assets are Trading favourably for Gold's decline, and sooner or later Gold will erase current gains (from #1,815.80 or from #1,832.80 Top's). Keep in mind that my approach is Swing trading (#10 - #15 point Targets) within quarterly cycles and my goal is identifying the correct trend for a longer period of time, even if it lags to a small extent.


My position: It is Highly important to note that I found strong correlation of Gold with Real Yields (currently they are Trading on Neutral values aswell) and that might be the crucial factor in the coming Year. As Gold is still Neutral, it is too dangerous to Buy or Sell without a firm confirmation. If #1,815.80 - #1,817.80 breaks, Gold may test #1,832.80 Quadruple Top zone, however on the other side, #1,800.80 break negates Bullish bias regarding Short-term. I am expecting #1,678.80 or less within first few Months of #2022.

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