Indecision candles on Gold / will Trade the breakout
Gold's general commentary: Gold is Trading on Neutral candles after it failed to break below it’s Hourly 1 chart Support zone. This sequence is similar to the September #24 - #28 pattern when a Double Bottom was made before the strong rebound. It is therefore possible to re-test #1,802.80 before rebounding, but not certain, as the DX touched its Hourly 4 chart’s Support and broke it strongly (Double Top rejection on Weekly chart (#1W)). Also Gold's strength is Highly correlated with the mixed values on the Bond Yields which is struggling to make Bullish comeback. Gold is still Trading near #1,802.80 Resistance zone as #1,788.80 is still Supporting the uptrend and is untouched since #2 sessions, which Gold would need to break firmly in order to revive the downtrend extension.
Fundamental analysis: No strong Bullish impulse regarding yesterday's U.S. session opening, as Gold didn’t engaged decent recovery and broken both Resistances on one hit (I cannot treat #1,788.80 test as an breakout since strong Volatility Gold is Trading under). This is a typical sign that the market should continue consolidating, waiting for a catalyst to reveal an direction. Since Gold is Buying every Bottom since early November, fractal which is repeated #3 times, and statistically, every variance that Gold repeats #3 times or more, it becomes a cycle which every Gold Trader should take into consideration. As Fed minutes usually arise Buyers on the aftermath - Gold continues the Buying sentiment, engages the consolidation Rectangle (lately #12 sessions of #15 point Trading on average), then engages the steeper fall. Fundamentally, the risk-off sentiment that DX Investors had these past few sessions should fade away after this result as Investors will remove capital from riskier assets such as DX and Bond Yields, and can go back to safe-haven metals such as Gold with confidence. Meaning that if DX gains value, Bond Yields should benefit along with the Stock markets, which can engage the Selling sequence on Gold, and vice-versa, which is the case at the moment, regarding my configuration. However, pullback to the #1,788.80 and possible Price-action rejection is a Buy opportunity, below #1,788.80, I expect last week's late Sellers to yield and push the Price-action towards #1,772.80 again. It is highly important to note that Gold always repeats it’s cycles, as they are the key in being Profitable on Gold markets, along with the patience to remain on sidelines until Profitable pattern emerges.
Technical analysis: Throughout November #11 - #12 fractal, Gold dipped on E.U. session towards the #1,856.80 and as market closing approached, Bought back the dip and finished session near #1,884.80. On November #16 (cycle fractal), market sentiment delivered almost the same movement, decline towards #1,864.70, and tomorrow’s session market closing near Weekly High priced at #1,895.80 (again similar scenario). Throughout the yesterday's session, E.U. opening was flat but as Wall Street approached, Price-action dipped on an aggressive spike towards #1,788.80, and Bought back just within few hours towards #1,800.80 barrier, so - according to Daily cycles, every dip to the Support was Bought back, and if Gold experiences aggressive push towards the Support and Price-action rejects it, I don’t see why Gold won’t repeat this kind of sentiment and follow the statistic rules. On the contrary, if #1,788.80 is broken, Sellers may arise and engage Short-term takedown towards #1,766.80 Support.
My position: Regarding the Buying order I engaged on #1,797.80 throughout yesterday's session, I have closed it after holding for more than #2 Hours without showing any results (and my Stop-loss was priced on #1,786.80 which was #2 points below the #1,788.80 Support, and even if I kept it, I would still have my Buying order active. Bottom line, as Gold didn't risen since on a new virus outbreak, DX loosing with every Hourly candle and Bond Yields on #5-session Low's, it makes me believe that Buying bias is showing signs of exhaustion and may came to an end. If however #1,802.80 - #1,804.80 Resistance cluster breaks, I will Buy Gold towards #1,820.80 again, and if #1,788.80 Support breaks on the other side, I will Sell on spot towards #1,766.80 Higher Low's extension. It is clash which benchmark will break first. I am confident that Gold is Bearish on Medium-term, and sooner or later Gold will break #1,759.80 Medium-term Support (Targeting #1,727.80 and #1,678.80 in succession).
Fundamental analysis: No strong Bullish impulse regarding yesterday's U.S. session opening, as Gold didn’t engaged decent recovery and broken both Resistances on one hit (I cannot treat #1,788.80 test as an breakout since strong Volatility Gold is Trading under). This is a typical sign that the market should continue consolidating, waiting for a catalyst to reveal an direction. Since Gold is Buying every Bottom since early November, fractal which is repeated #3 times, and statistically, every variance that Gold repeats #3 times or more, it becomes a cycle which every Gold Trader should take into consideration. As Fed minutes usually arise Buyers on the aftermath - Gold continues the Buying sentiment, engages the consolidation Rectangle (lately #12 sessions of #15 point Trading on average), then engages the steeper fall. Fundamentally, the risk-off sentiment that DX Investors had these past few sessions should fade away after this result as Investors will remove capital from riskier assets such as DX and Bond Yields, and can go back to safe-haven metals such as Gold with confidence. Meaning that if DX gains value, Bond Yields should benefit along with the Stock markets, which can engage the Selling sequence on Gold, and vice-versa, which is the case at the moment, regarding my configuration. However, pullback to the #1,788.80 and possible Price-action rejection is a Buy opportunity, below #1,788.80, I expect last week's late Sellers to yield and push the Price-action towards #1,772.80 again. It is highly important to note that Gold always repeats it’s cycles, as they are the key in being Profitable on Gold markets, along with the patience to remain on sidelines until Profitable pattern emerges.
Technical analysis: Throughout November #11 - #12 fractal, Gold dipped on E.U. session towards the #1,856.80 and as market closing approached, Bought back the dip and finished session near #1,884.80. On November #16 (cycle fractal), market sentiment delivered almost the same movement, decline towards #1,864.70, and tomorrow’s session market closing near Weekly High priced at #1,895.80 (again similar scenario). Throughout the yesterday's session, E.U. opening was flat but as Wall Street approached, Price-action dipped on an aggressive spike towards #1,788.80, and Bought back just within few hours towards #1,800.80 barrier, so - according to Daily cycles, every dip to the Support was Bought back, and if Gold experiences aggressive push towards the Support and Price-action rejects it, I don’t see why Gold won’t repeat this kind of sentiment and follow the statistic rules. On the contrary, if #1,788.80 is broken, Sellers may arise and engage Short-term takedown towards #1,766.80 Support.
My position: Regarding the Buying order I engaged on #1,797.80 throughout yesterday's session, I have closed it after holding for more than #2 Hours without showing any results (and my Stop-loss was priced on #1,786.80 which was #2 points below the #1,788.80 Support, and even if I kept it, I would still have my Buying order active. Bottom line, as Gold didn't risen since on a new virus outbreak, DX loosing with every Hourly candle and Bond Yields on #5-session Low's, it makes me believe that Buying bias is showing signs of exhaustion and may came to an end. If however #1,802.80 - #1,804.80 Resistance cluster breaks, I will Buy Gold towards #1,820.80 again, and if #1,788.80 Support breaks on the other side, I will Sell on spot towards #1,766.80 Higher Low's extension. It is clash which benchmark will break first. I am confident that Gold is Bearish on Medium-term, and sooner or later Gold will break #1,759.80 Medium-term Support (Targeting #1,727.80 and #1,678.80 in succession).
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
