goldenBear88

Engaged my Selling order, Targeting #1,759.80 Support variance

Short
TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold's general commentary: All is set for the multi-Month Bearish cycle on Gold. In addition to that, DX is near #96.60 - #96.65 Resistance zone, Bond Yields are Trading on excellent recovery and Usd-Jpy has reversed Intra-day and is near a #4-session High. Based on the above, Gold shouldn’t be above its #1,800.80 - #1,804.80 Short-term Resistance. It is important to note that the Price-action is near the Daily chart’s middle of Bollinger bands, points that there is still enough room for downtrend. Stock markets had aggressive Bearish Gap fill throughout Monday’s session, but had less or no impact on Gold, which removes it from main correlating assets list.


Technical analysis: Gold remains Bearish on Hourly 4 basis and will continue to do so as long as the Daily chart’s #1,800.80 - #1,804.80 is holding. The Lower High zone since September #30 is about to break for the first time if Gold close a full Daily chart candle below #1,778.80, or typically break #1,772.80 (November #30 Low’s trendline, and rejection on December #15). Fair Technical Price should be around #1,727.80 by now already if there was no Buying pressure coming from Bond Yields (on recent Low's). Technically, I see the potential for an Descending Channel extension on Hourly 1 chart as sustainable, calling for #1,778.80 configuration, as market is Trading on Fundamental catalyst where Bond Yields were losing with every candle, engaging Daily chart’s parabolic downtrend, and now correcting losses on spiral uptrend (comfortably Trading near Resistance zone). According to my formula, looks like that yesterday’s session sharp pullback had to do with Bond Yields on recovery candles (still struggling to make Bullish comeback) than the minor decline on DX as no other asset correlations validated it (nor Usd-Jpy pair or Stock markets), and well done if you Sold from #1,797.80 towards current Price-action. It is possible though that the market is repeating the Technical pullback that it always does after it hits the Daily chart Neutral Rectangle zone following a market bottom (October #8 - #10 and December #6 - #9), and the current Top’s around #1,800.80 - #1,804.80 Resistance cluster.


Conclusion: The Daily chart’s Williams% points that Gold is closer to the Top on than the Bottom on the Medium-term but like I said on multiple occasions, the key is the Weekly chart’s (#1W) symmetrical #1,778.80 - #1,788.80 Support zone. As long as mentioned zone holds, Price-action will attract Buyers (Buying the dip) and always push for Resistance test, until one side gets heavily invalidated. Closing the Weekly candle below the Support cluster, is Bearish Medium-term signal (what I am expecting), representing multi-Month Bearish cycle ahead and excellent Medium-term opportunity for Sellers. Bulls will dominate above the Daily chart’s #1,800.80 closing (restoring Bullish Short-term trend, but slim chances for that). If #1,778.80 fractal breaks, I see many similarities with November #1 - November #3 cycle, where Support break engaged almost #50 point takedown. If #1,759.80 breaks, Sellers may pursue #1,727.80 and #1,678.80 in succession.


My position: I engaged my Selling order with #1,789.80 as an entry point, Targeting #1,759.80 Selling extension. If #1,772.80 stalls the downtrend I may close my order there. Aggressive takedown on Gold may be on the cards, with #1,759.80 possible break of utmost importance regarding Gold's Medium-term.

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