Unexpected Gap fills both on Gold and DX (main correlation)

Gold's general commentary: So far Gold has failed at attempt to break the #1,805.80 - #1,800.80 Support zone on Hourly 4 chart, despite an #3-consecutive sessions of weakness and #2-Month old Support zone coming strong from below. Since Support zone managed to showcase strong durability and Price-action delivering #27+ point uptrend on Intra-day basis (March #9 - March #10 sessions), such aggressive spike confirms that Support zone is now even stronger and that area represents the trend’s Ultimate Bottom. Keep in mind on the other side that #1,875.80 Resistance have to broken firstly on Hourly 4 chart to continue the Buying sequence, and with DX on spiral downtrend, is the mix which is keeping Bullish Short-term bias alive. Even though the December #5 trendline was invalidated, Hourly 4 chart was on healthy Descending Channel, DX was testing it’s #106.100 Short-term Resistance + most importantly hawkish bets from the Fed / all of those developments weren’t enough to invalidate much expected Support zone break where market speculators were preventing total Selling domination and full oscillation towards #1,778.80 Lower Low’s Lower zone.


Technical analysis: Interesting fractal on Daily chart where Price-action is Trading above the Upper zone of Bollinger bands, which isn't instantly rejected as always Price-action tends to Trade within Bollinger Bands since #2002 Year. Historically, last time Gold was rejected above the Bollinger Bands on Daily chart (January #6 #2021), Gold extended the Medium-term decline of more than #150 points on the aftermath (currently, Price-action may Target #1,752.80 way below Lower Bollinger Band line). Irregular movements on Gold currently and according to the cycle, configuration starting November #15 - December #31 was most Volatile Annual period when market gives and instantly takes back almost every gain delivered, so patience is required until market reverses again to normal Trading conditions. With all Technical reasoning for #1,800.80 psychological benchmark test-and-break and hawkish Fed bets, what was even more unclear is NFP meeting my forecast, however DX was on spiral downtrend, taking strong hits / sequence last seen on January #2009 Year fractal. My latest Target is still not met nor tested even though slim chances for such recovery on Gold followed with break of #1,852.80 Resistance which turned Daily chart from Bearish to Bullish out of thin air (no viable catalyst), and spike upwards which you witnessed throughout Friday’s and today’s session were strongly extended (mostly market speculators manually preventing the downtrend). Be aware that Gold delivered almost #70 point #2-session recovery which is rarely seen on Gold chart’s without viable catalyst. Overall, from Technically and Fundamentally Bearish week for Gold, Price-action manages to Trade above #1,852.80 psychological benchmark comfortably. Daily chart may continue to consolidate to form the ultimate Top pricing patterns as Price-action indicates that spikes towards #1,875.80 Resistance in extension are better off to be Sold. Global capital is on a Buying frenzy state as Fed positively beat estimates aswell as the Unemployment rate. With such pace capital should not flee to safe-havens in High demand such as Gold, regardless Gold soared. I am not entering any more positions until market returns into normal conditions, as I am still expecting #1,800.80 Support zone to break which may fill #1,778.80 contact point on the aftermath (within #3-session horizon after the break).


My position: My Friday's order triggered my #10-point Stop-loss and now I assume no new orders. Be aware that these Fundamentally driven movements can be altered anytime and take extra caution due Gap fills both on Gold and especially DX if you decide to Trade this. No new orders as I will expect my re-Sell zone to be met and then make my move.