Gold is Trading on Inflated Price-action, correction ahead
Gold's general commentary: No surprises so far throughout today’s session as the Price-action is pulling back on Hourly basis having been rejected just below the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,927.80 Resistance. As I've mentioned previously, Gold is basically Overbought on all main charts within roughly #1,900.80 - #1,915.80 Rectangle and Scalpers of the Bollinger Bands are getting the most return out of this Price-action on Intra-day basis. I will continue utilizing my Medium-term Selling pattern and Trading this as long as it lasts but keep in mind that on Long-term the Price-action is still Bearish (was contained within the Weekly chart’s (#1W) Descending Channel), able to test #1,800.80 psychological benchmark once Fundamentals leave the scene.
Fundamental analysis: Capital moved from Bond Yields is Buying back every dip on Gold and that sequence turned Short-term from Neutral to Bullish (however configuration may be short-lived). Still, I haven’t got confirmation for Medium-term Selling opportunity which I await as it is still not worth entering the market without tight Risk management. Practically, my Selling bias is unchanged as I will treat Bearish spikes as an oscillation from Overbought to Neutral (Williams%), which may deliver new space for Bearish aggressive correction (Inflated prices easily lose value, therefore aggressive take-down may be on the cards). The Resistance broke but shortly after Gold rebounded and is currently within the (former) #1,900’s Support zone fractal. The Hourly 4 chart was at it’s Highest since the #1,805.80 pressure point (currently on #7-session Buying spree) aswell the Daily chart’s Bullish values are well preserved, able to convert to Bearish anytime once Gold loses it’s role as an safe-haven in demand due SVB collapse. These are all negative signs for the Short-term Gold Sellers but as discussed throughout Monday’s session, the market has turned to Fundamentals again for direction as Bond Yields are on Top of my importance list (currently on parabolic downtrend which was later on Bought back) as I spotted Short-term correlation shift to Gold / Bond Yields. Failure to deliver a supportive sentiment may panic the Yields more and Gold may gain double the effect, however Yields should find the Support and continue to gain in value (eminent recovery) with Investors using it as hedge against Inflation (note that this was similar to what happened in February and early March (virus parabola)).
Technical analysis: This week’s Fundamentals missed their estimates by a respectable margin and the DX found the Support and already pulling back on a strong Hourly 4 chart’s Bull candle. Bond Yields also followed that sequence (found Buyers on spiral downtrend aftermath) and the only reason Gold hasn't acted according to it’s first negative then diagonal correlation is the consolidation of Investors capital on High levels (using Gold as an safe-haven in High demand). Soon enough I am expecting #2 Gaps to be closed (DX upwards and Gold downwards) which will be ultimate Profit opportunity where Gold will deliver aggressive Selling sequence where I will be ready to pursue #1,852.80 psychological barrier first then #1,800.80 benchmark in extension. However the Price-action is just above its Daily chart’s Support zone and it should start trending downwards, so according to my Technicals and assuming no new Fundamental surprises, Gold is on the verge of an aggressive Bearish trend shift. As long as Hourly 4 chart remains stable (isolated within Bullish Flag), Gold has more chances of breaking the #1,927.80 Higher High’s local peak than testing and breaking Daily chart’s Support zone #1,900.80 barrier (and below). I remain fully Bearish on the Long-term, and I expect #1,852.80 test within #8 - #10 session horizon. Influenced by a pullback on Yields, Hourly 4 chart’s action pressed Gold as far upwards as current values. Ultimately, I believe if the market tests Daily chart’s Support zone and breaks it (highlighted above), rotation to the upside and evident Bullish continuation will be taken out from consideration. This is simply because both Weekly and Daily timeframes agree's on the same Support and same Selling Targets. The break through Hourly 4 chart’s Support aswell, if happens, theoretically clears the majority of Buyers out of the market, unlocking the pathway to Lower levels.
Fundamental analysis: Capital moved from Bond Yields is Buying back every dip on Gold and that sequence turned Short-term from Neutral to Bullish (however configuration may be short-lived). Still, I haven’t got confirmation for Medium-term Selling opportunity which I await as it is still not worth entering the market without tight Risk management. Practically, my Selling bias is unchanged as I will treat Bearish spikes as an oscillation from Overbought to Neutral (Williams%), which may deliver new space for Bearish aggressive correction (Inflated prices easily lose value, therefore aggressive take-down may be on the cards). The Resistance broke but shortly after Gold rebounded and is currently within the (former) #1,900’s Support zone fractal. The Hourly 4 chart was at it’s Highest since the #1,805.80 pressure point (currently on #7-session Buying spree) aswell the Daily chart’s Bullish values are well preserved, able to convert to Bearish anytime once Gold loses it’s role as an safe-haven in demand due SVB collapse. These are all negative signs for the Short-term Gold Sellers but as discussed throughout Monday’s session, the market has turned to Fundamentals again for direction as Bond Yields are on Top of my importance list (currently on parabolic downtrend which was later on Bought back) as I spotted Short-term correlation shift to Gold / Bond Yields. Failure to deliver a supportive sentiment may panic the Yields more and Gold may gain double the effect, however Yields should find the Support and continue to gain in value (eminent recovery) with Investors using it as hedge against Inflation (note that this was similar to what happened in February and early March (virus parabola)).
Technical analysis: This week’s Fundamentals missed their estimates by a respectable margin and the DX found the Support and already pulling back on a strong Hourly 4 chart’s Bull candle. Bond Yields also followed that sequence (found Buyers on spiral downtrend aftermath) and the only reason Gold hasn't acted according to it’s first negative then diagonal correlation is the consolidation of Investors capital on High levels (using Gold as an safe-haven in High demand). Soon enough I am expecting #2 Gaps to be closed (DX upwards and Gold downwards) which will be ultimate Profit opportunity where Gold will deliver aggressive Selling sequence where I will be ready to pursue #1,852.80 psychological barrier first then #1,800.80 benchmark in extension. However the Price-action is just above its Daily chart’s Support zone and it should start trending downwards, so according to my Technicals and assuming no new Fundamental surprises, Gold is on the verge of an aggressive Bearish trend shift. As long as Hourly 4 chart remains stable (isolated within Bullish Flag), Gold has more chances of breaking the #1,927.80 Higher High’s local peak than testing and breaking Daily chart’s Support zone #1,900.80 barrier (and below). I remain fully Bearish on the Long-term, and I expect #1,852.80 test within #8 - #10 session horizon. Influenced by a pullback on Yields, Hourly 4 chart’s action pressed Gold as far upwards as current values. Ultimately, I believe if the market tests Daily chart’s Support zone and breaks it (highlighted above), rotation to the upside and evident Bullish continuation will be taken out from consideration. This is simply because both Weekly and Daily timeframes agree's on the same Support and same Selling Targets. The break through Hourly 4 chart’s Support aswell, if happens, theoretically clears the majority of Buyers out of the market, unlocking the pathway to Lower levels.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
