Gold's general commentary: Friday's E.U. session delivered correction towards Higher High’s Lower zone again as DX was comfortably Trading above the Support and with the Yields market on Bearish Gap fill, I can see further mini upside within few Hours which can deliver optimal Selling opportunity early on throughout U.S. session opening (it is important to position myself before High impact macro-economic announcements throughout the week). As discussed, Hourly 4 chart is still an Descending Channel aiming at the #1,832.80 - #1,835.80 Lower High’s Support. Short-term Traders can take on step at a time though, as I have calculated the next Lower High’s Lower zone seen Trading at #1,805.80, near #1,800.80 psychological barrier. Price-action is supporting this whole move (defending the downtrend extension) at #1,832.80 (previous Triple Top rejection), and if broken can result in #1,800.80 benchmark test regarding Short-term. Inflation chart is at it’s Highest since #2003 Year, so keep an eye, but currently, Gold is struggling to overcome Selling pressure, so I give more probabilities to the downside. Remember that my analysis is based on Gold Spot numbers and not the futures contract. Since #1,862.80 and #1,870.80 Short-term Resistances are still intact; I might have upside momentum towards #1,892.80 (as mentioned on my yesterday’s commentary if first Resistance breaks), while if Support belt breaks, I expect #1,805.80 configuration or less in extension.
Fundamental analysis: Gold was among the losers of the Fed's speech hawkish aftermath. Valuable ground's given and #1,900.80 psychological barrier looks unreachable for at least not before #Q1 or further Fed decisions. Investors clearly show their interest to try riskier assets (after Fundamentally driven soaring on Gold due Inflation on Highest level since #2003) like equities and as long as Bond Yields and DX continue to hit historic Intra-day High’s, Gold will keep losing ground, Selling every High. Regarding Daily chart, Gold is clearly on critical Support level as Yearly and Quarterly Investors will pressure the #1,800.80 benchmark based on current Fundamental environment where Investors are unlikely to use Gold as an sole hedge against Inflation (what was driving Gold lately). #1,850.80 Support is broken and market closed below it, indicating Selling sustainability (and possible decline towards Weekly chart’s Support belt), and if the Daily chart’s Support belt of #1,832.80 - #1,835.80 gets invalidated, next Technical stop should be near #1,800.80 psychological barrier.
Technical analysis: Selling pressure has the potential to make a run towards the middle Bollinger Band’s line (Daily chart’s BB). If Gold achieves consolidation there, the Hourly 4 chart’s Ichimoku #1,850.80 - #1,860.80 may be Targeted once again (less likely). The sentiment is leaning more to the Bearish side as the Price-action cannot rebound more at the moment. Gold didn’t corrected most of the Friday’s session losses with a Hourly 4 chart’s twin candle on today's "Selling effect" and High Volatility on Hourly 1 chart is nothing more than Gold spiking downwards as an answer to a small Bond Yields correction and as discussed, hawkish stance from Fed commentary. Geopolitical tension has not receded and Daily chart’s displays very balanced Bearish Technicals. In any case, if today's Daily candle is still Bearish and if the U.S. session closes like this then my #1,800.80 Target will still be in effect.
Commentary prior to Fed possible outcome: My formula points that the Fed is forced to leave the rate unchanged (at least until the #Q1, not arising Buyers traditionally after the Fed minutes aftermath. Historically, Fed is doing same maneuvres ahead of every financial crisis, so Traders can take advantage of that and mimic the movements spotted on the bigger Gold's charts (Fed is not solving the issues, just postponing it by printing more and more currency out of the thin air). Since current financial system of the world is only functioning only when. money is circulating, once the crisis appears, money stops circulating and crisis tends to be stronger and more lengthy.
My position: It seems that Inflation Fundamental Buying pressure on Gold is near exhaustion, and on current Bearish Technicals on most charts, it is dangerous to Buy Gold (unless #1,860.80 is cleared and broken violently). I took my chances and engaged Selling order (#1,846.80 entry point), with #1,805.80 Target. If Price-action rejects the Selling bias near above explained Support belt, I may alter my order there. If #1,840.80 breaks, I will move my Stop-loss on breakeven.
Fundamental analysis: Gold was among the losers of the Fed's speech hawkish aftermath. Valuable ground's given and #1,900.80 psychological barrier looks unreachable for at least not before #Q1 or further Fed decisions. Investors clearly show their interest to try riskier assets (after Fundamentally driven soaring on Gold due Inflation on Highest level since #2003) like equities and as long as Bond Yields and DX continue to hit historic Intra-day High’s, Gold will keep losing ground, Selling every High. Regarding Daily chart, Gold is clearly on critical Support level as Yearly and Quarterly Investors will pressure the #1,800.80 benchmark based on current Fundamental environment where Investors are unlikely to use Gold as an sole hedge against Inflation (what was driving Gold lately). #1,850.80 Support is broken and market closed below it, indicating Selling sustainability (and possible decline towards Weekly chart’s Support belt), and if the Daily chart’s Support belt of #1,832.80 - #1,835.80 gets invalidated, next Technical stop should be near #1,800.80 psychological barrier.
Technical analysis: Selling pressure has the potential to make a run towards the middle Bollinger Band’s line (Daily chart’s BB). If Gold achieves consolidation there, the Hourly 4 chart’s Ichimoku #1,850.80 - #1,860.80 may be Targeted once again (less likely). The sentiment is leaning more to the Bearish side as the Price-action cannot rebound more at the moment. Gold didn’t corrected most of the Friday’s session losses with a Hourly 4 chart’s twin candle on today's "Selling effect" and High Volatility on Hourly 1 chart is nothing more than Gold spiking downwards as an answer to a small Bond Yields correction and as discussed, hawkish stance from Fed commentary. Geopolitical tension has not receded and Daily chart’s displays very balanced Bearish Technicals. In any case, if today's Daily candle is still Bearish and if the U.S. session closes like this then my #1,800.80 Target will still be in effect.
Commentary prior to Fed possible outcome: My formula points that the Fed is forced to leave the rate unchanged (at least until the #Q1, not arising Buyers traditionally after the Fed minutes aftermath. Historically, Fed is doing same maneuvres ahead of every financial crisis, so Traders can take advantage of that and mimic the movements spotted on the bigger Gold's charts (Fed is not solving the issues, just postponing it by printing more and more currency out of the thin air). Since current financial system of the world is only functioning only when. money is circulating, once the crisis appears, money stops circulating and crisis tends to be stronger and more lengthy.
My position: It seems that Inflation Fundamental Buying pressure on Gold is near exhaustion, and on current Bearish Technicals on most charts, it is dangerous to Buy Gold (unless #1,860.80 is cleared and broken violently). I took my chances and engaged Selling order (#1,846.80 entry point), with #1,805.80 Target. If Price-action rejects the Selling bias near above explained Support belt, I may alter my order there. If #1,840.80 breaks, I will move my Stop-loss on breakeven.
- My official and only Telegram Channel: t.me/goldenBear88
- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
