What does the future bring in terms of Gold? One might say, if the markets and economy collapses, gold will rise as people flood to safety. This is both true and not. Take a look at gold during the biggest economic turmoil events in the passed 20-years. Specifically, 2008 Great Recession and 2020 Pandemic Collapse.
Both 2008 and 2020 share the same moves. During times of absolutely fear, everything sold, including Gold. Gold fell 34% from March 2008 to Oct 2008 before investors fled into gold which rallied it 180%. During March 2020 collapse, Gold fell 14% before rallying 43%.
The point is, if the markets fall due to numerous events as listed in the chart, we can see gold sell before rallying. Depending on how bad the damage is... gold may recover or may not. I see two possible scenarios:
1) The current Monetary Fiat System faces unrivaled turmoil and the once unthinkable national defaults occur, pushing gold to unimaginable highs where world central banks agree to establish a new world monetary system based on an established rate for gold probably over $10,000 an ounce.
2) Gold declines so low that there is no desire to hold or hedge into it. I still believe a new monetary system would be established.
These events seem... beyond reasoning right? We have to face realities that we never faced before. There has been at least 2 new world monetary systems since 1900s. Bretton Woods was one of them. No Fiat currency ever lasted forever. The debt is unsustainable, and will never be paid down. Hyper Inflation and Stagflation are two words becoming used more and more even by mainstream economists. We can't be naive to the fact that even the mightiest world fiat currencies can fail. The problem is when we do not consider this a possibility or brush it off as "not in my lifetime". The Germans said that with their Mark. I'm sure they said this in Zimbabwe with their currency. It comes down to, not if, but how soon and what event will cause it? Be safe. Things can change on a dime these days.