d3dave

2021 GOLD Monthly Chart follows 2012

TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
2021 GOLD Monthly Chart follows 2012


On this chart you I am using the builtin "MA Exp Ribbon" indicator found on the Tradingview Toolbar
and "Bars Pattern" Drawing Tool.

I find it ironic the years are transposed 2 and 1 for those into numerology ... 2021 vs 2012 ...
but looking at the monthly chart we can see the fractal pattern (ghost bars) cloned from
2012 to 2014 looks like a perfect match.

Forecast/Bar Clone is laid over a Fib Retracement to show potential levels of support and resistance .

Based on the Fib levels, can see the following possible forecast:

  • a possible bounce from 0.50 Fib level of $1617
  • back to 0.78 Fib $1883 ( est Sept 2021)
  • then descending down into 0.23 Fib $1300 est . Nov 2021.

Not financial advice, etc... purely speculative idea of possibly playout.

Best of luck guys.

Comments

Great post, you are certainly on track to be honest. There are many factors aligning with your chart, to say the least, but the largest one sucking away golds luster is the crypto movement. The DXY bull run that's developing. and JP naked shorting the hell out of it are certainly in play. Cup and handle is certainly forming for some time, in the long run gold may come back stronger than ever, but the crypto space will always be a threat. Look into JDST, it may be worth considering for scalp or swing trades, I personally love it.
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2012 is not 2021. the fundamentals are different and the basing pattern is way different.
This is the handle forming on a huge 10 year cup and handle pattern. It is nearing the low probably for the year this month. This is a great time to buy
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d3dave awh2830
@awh2830, I'm new to Gold investing.. ... could this handle still be "forming" as I have shown? down to $1300 then upwards? or would that be two cups side by side? I'm totally still learning TA and FA etc... Thank you for your sharing of insight, probably you are right... I agree the environment is surely different, have you considered the influence of Bitcoin as a "store of value" or as a "Hedge against inflation?" instead of Gold? and the impact of new Gold deposits being discovered... What are your thoughts on the play between Silver and Gold ratio?
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awh2830 d3dave
@d3dave,



THe cup has formed over the last 10 years and is complete. THe handle is completing now. the handle depth is roughly 33% sometimes to 38.2 retrace. Right now it is a perfect retrace to 38.2. The breakout confirmation is above $1850. Minimum price target of the pattern is $2850.
+2 Reply
awh2830 d3dave
@d3dave, I've been investing in the metals for over 20 years. Stick to the long term plays, its how you make the real money.
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d3dave awh2830
@awh2830, NICE Chart... so it looks like you draw a FIB from end of cup to bottom and handle completes typically at 33-38% drawdown? I trust you really know what you're talking about ... GOLD dealers charge such high spreads and premiums... for example i bought some gold bullion at $1875 but paid $120 premium 1995/oz... now GOLD spot is down by $nearly $200 to 1685, however the dealer premium is increased now... They know what their doing. I read that Bullion dealers trade futures contracts to hedge their investments and insure profits. Can we also follow dealers trades in these ways for better short term gains?
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awh2830 d3dave
@d3dave, The paper market is not the physical market. THey are rapidly diverging from each other. THe physical price is much closer to reality. Look at the spreads on Silver even higher than gold on a percentage basis.

Gold hit the Fib retracement perfectly yesterday, within $5 of the low. It is time to buy. Only suckers are shorting down here.
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d3dave awh2830
@awh2830, You are right.... I have seen TA from others calling for reversal and a strong Buy Signal on GOLD... yesterday it moved up quite a bit... Its all up from here I suppose. What do you think the next level of resistance would likely be? Top line of your Descending Parallel Channel (handle formation) looks around $1800 ??? It would have retest and/or break out of that to confirm the bullrun for GOLD ?
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