goldenBear88

Engaging Buying order / Gold to extend the uptrend Intra-day

Long
TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold's general commentary: The Price-action was under Buying pressure throughout today’s E.U. session (from Bond Yields on spiral downtrend) and got higher on each Hourly 4 candle (evident Short-term uptrend formation previously printed) but on a slow pace which may be an indicator that the Short-term Buying trend is almost over or near exhaustion. However, I need to see the Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance of #1,800.80 broken (in order to Price the Resistance, always move it #3$ point up and keep that as your breakout point every session if it remains intact) and close the market above it to confirm a Buying continuation regarding Short-term. As discussed last week, with the Daily chart on eminent uptrend (mini Channel Up of #4 consecutive sessions of gains), I believe Gold’s current uptrend is well Supported within #1,778.80 - #1,781.80. Still, I won’t take risks below that zone as current and next week is packed with macro-economic reports (Fed chair speech within today's session) which may add the Volatility index and pause the Bullish reversal. Do not be surprised if Gold continues the consolidation as there are #3 Supports and Resistances on both sides, as the Price-action can continue the Neutral trend until major move is revealed. I give more probabilities to the upside since Yields are under Selling pressure once again.


Technical analysis: Despite the spiral downtrend on Bond Yields and DX found the Support, (Gold almost flat), Price-action has managed to rise throughout the U.S. session and enter the #1,780.80 - #1,790.80 Hourly 4 first Resistance Zone. This is the Bullish extension of the Lower Low sequence within the Hourly 4 chart. There is evident Double Bottom formation (December #7 and December #10 Low’s) and last time Gold printed Double Bottom formation on Hourly 4 chart (October #8 - October #13) Gold spiked up almost #90 points, as I don’t see why it shouldn’t be the case at the moment, just on the other side (Selling). It is evident on the charts that Gold is Trading on classic Investment banks strategy (creating dips which are instantly Bought, visible on December #2, #4, #6) as E.U. session’s decline was instantly Bought throughout yesterday’s session, implying that Gold always repeats it’s cycles and that historical resemblance is key aspect in Gold Trading. In my opinion #1,808.80 is the Highest extension of the current Daily chart’s Channel Up. If however #1,800.80 breaks, Gold can peak towards #1,812.80 variance Intra-day. Otherwise, #1,752.80 is my Support and if invalidated, #1,727.80 should be the next extension. No strategy shift so far as Weekly chart shows Selling configuration on almost all Moving Averages.


Regarding Fed's chair speech: I am expecting aggressive takedown towards #1,752.80 on the speech aftermath (and traditional Volatility). I engaged my Buying order on #1,790.80 Resistance break, calling for #1,808.80 Buying extension as my Target. If #1,800.80 barrier rejects the Price-action, I might close my Buying order there and await the speech. On the contrary, if #1,800.80 breaks Intra-day, I will remain my order ahead of the speech as it would be in decent Profit by then and moving the Stop-loss on breakeven will do the trick and comfortably listen to Powell's speech.

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