Gold under Buying pressure, #1,727.80 by end of the week

Gold's general commentary: Gold has hit the #1,752.80 Resistance and didn’t seemed to struggle to get past it. But until #1,790.80 breaks, I can't call for a continuation of current uptrend, even though the dominant Hourly 1 chart pattern is an solid Channel Up. As a result I suggest to continue Buying the #3 consecutive sessions uptrend, monitoring the Bear and Bull clash / which side would prevail, as I give more probabilities to the upside. Fundamentally, the Fed delivered assurances that the markets needed and Chair Jerome Powell gave more than was expected, pledging for more Years of Low interest rate. That development alone was Fundamentally Bearish for the DX and Bond Yields, hence Bullish for Stock markets and Gold. On the Technical configuration, both Hourly 1 and Hourly 4 charts created an Channel Up which as long as it remains Support by the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,750.80 fractal, it aims at the critical #1,790.80 level (earlier on has been a Support on June #28 and was representing the Resistance on July #2). If that breaks the Daily chart’s #1,800.80 psychological barrier should be tested (#26 points away on Spot prices currently) which will provide the sentiment for the next #1 - #2 week’s horizon, with High impact announcement on Wednesday, which may add enormous Selling pressure on Gold where Price-action could yet again engage the aggressive decline.


Technical analysis: Very interesting Technical fractal regarding Hourly 1 chart as Gold soared almost #25 points throughout Friday's U.S. session (#3 consecutive sessions of gains on Gold), previously discussed on my Friday's commentary. That this uptrend should be in continuation (regarding #1 - #2 session horizon), confirms the Daily chart’s configuration on Bond Yields, where Price-action almost broken the February #20, #2020 Year High (which has been holding for #5 straight Months), as on the aftermath, Gold (February #24 - March #19 fractal) engaged almost #200 point decline, which currently I am expecting on Medium-term. My estimation shows that Gold’s fair Technical value should be around #1,700.80 next, with possibility of #1,595.80 test (Medium/Long-term). As Gold always repeats it’s cycles, I am well known as an Medium-term Trader and as such, I am heavily on Bearish side regarding Medium-term. Indeed Gold was Trading on predicted values (within my model) and current Buying sequence didn’t came as an Technical surprise. With Daily chart’s Resistance zone invalidated, Gold should continue the Short-term recovery, as I expect #1,700.80 psychological barrier test on the aftermath. I expect configuration to escalate as Gold should deliver #1,780.80 test within #2 sessions if #1,783.80 is recovered Intra-day throughout today's session. Gold almost got rejected near the #1,778.80 fractal so the Short-term direction remains Bullish and the Price-action is yet again headed towards the Hourly 4 chart’s (Channel Up / Upper zone) for Resistance. If broken, the Short-term trend shifts to Bullish too and can escalate then as High as #1,792.80 and even #1,800.80 in extension, as I expect Fed to add strong Selling pressure on Gold and test #1,727.80 Intra-week.. The trend will resume the Bullish bias only if those benchmarks breaks.


My position: As I am currently on #5 consecutive Profits run, my model leans more to the Bullish side, but I cannot allow myself Technical Stop-loss of #18 points away, if market goes against me would endanger my capital. For the stated reasons, I will choose to remain on sidelines for today's session.