Engaging Selling order (Bond Yields on Higher High)

Gold's general commentary: The Daily chart RSI sequence is identical to the February #24 - #27 #2017, which after it almost hit the #MA200, resulted into the aggressive rise to #1,566.80 (was #MA200 then), as I don’t doubt that this will be the case now as Gold historically repeats it’s Cycles as I expect same movement, just on the Bearish side from this point. At the same time Bond Yields were recovering the losses, but on yesterday's E.U. session engaged the Weekly chart (#1W) correction (# -0.77% down from last week’s Lower High) and DX is on a semi-correction, more flat than Trading on a trend (# +0.06%). That outlook should pile on the Buying pressure on Gold but (can be retroactively) that outlook is gone as Bond Yields are Trading on miraculous recovery. Gold got the necessary Technical correction as I should be seeing a continuation of the downtrend and break of Hourly 1 mini Channel Up. June fractal should be fully Bearish (for Gold), also what is worth noting is that current week is packed with Bullish Fundamental reports - but my analysis always is based on Medium-term and filters such events, so both ways, Gold should engage the downtrend continuation. Bond Yields are on a spiral uptrend which also adds more Selling pressure on Gold (lately jumped from #1,898.80 Resistance towards #1,906.80 Higher High extension). In my opinion Yields are they key (essential), if they extend the uptrend (and DX starts an Short-term recovery) Gold will Trade on losses and negate further gains.


Technical analysis: As expected, yesterday’s session was approaching market closing without much of a Price-action. Mostly, Monday’s sessions are traditionally with thin Volume, without major moves (nor a catalyst). However, #1,913.80 is Short-term Resistance and #1,900.80 - #1,897.80 is Short-term Support zone so Medium/Long term Trader’s goal should be to focus on those Resistance / Support levels. My estimation shows that the base case scenario is even extending the Price-action towards #1,850.80 if Daily chart’s Channel Up breaks to the downside, which supported aggressive Buying Price-action since March #31, but it is too early to mention Lower Low levels, since there is no strong Resistance zones between #1,913.80 and #1,945.80 Higher High Upper levels. Gold is on a tight balance at the moment, positively biased by the Selling pressure from rising Bond Yields and indecision candles on DX, but still on a Medium-term negative cycle due to the continuous Volatility and Technical necessity for an bigger proportion decline. As for the current Price-action / the outlook for Buyers is a cause for alarm, as Gold is simply kept Lower due to Fundamental pressure, on the other hand Technically Gold is strongly Bearish. I am expecting a Technical bounce soon with #1,945.80 as an Ultimate Top zone for this Bullish fractal. Last time Gold was on current RSI levels (regarding Daily chart) on August #6, Gold dipped more than #150 points on the aftermath. I spotted that Gold have been consolidating on Hourly 4 chart all session long and this is the typical pricing of a Support base. Gold was on a tight #1,900’s range Hourly 4 chart High Volatility belt as the Price-action was absorbing conflicting pressures from the (then) falling Bond Yields and the weak DX. The result is this tight balance you saw throughout yesterday’s session. Much will depend on the Fundamental developments over the Trading week but the underlying trend remains Bearish and with Daily chart entering Neutral zone.


My position: Indeed Gold is Technically Bullish as I should see Gold above #1,920.80 already (Technically), but Fundamentally, Bond Yields skyrocketing recovery can alter the Short-term uptrend as I have more confidence in Fundamental side at the moment. I have engaged Selling order on #1,913.80 and will pursue #1,892.80 extension, with my Stop-loss on #1,920.80 (#7 points away) and if my outlook fails, I will continue Buying. I am ready to move my Stop-loss as Price-action dips to prevent unexpected rejections (which are the new norm lately).