Gold's general commentary: Despite last week's strong response to #1,917.80 peak, Gold failed to maintain those High levels and was rejected near the Hourly 4 chart's #1,907.80 - #1,917.80 Resistance zone. Yet, it still found Support on the Daily Higher High Lower zone #1,892.80, which remains Bearish and has High potential to contain this pullback. If Support is broken and #1,898.80 variance is activated, I expect aggressive decline and Bearish Gap fill towards #1,871.80. By every Technical factor, Bullish outlook is invalidated, at least for Short-term. Factors that may break Support zone: 1) the DX being on Higher Low levels, expected to rise to #90.80 on Biden’s #6 Trillion planned spending again and 2) Bond Yields were on decent recovery, as Fed had to skyrocket Yields in order to fight Inflation on ATH currently. Also the Daily chart has been Overbought for some time and unless Gold Trades at least sideways for this Month, Daily chart will always pressure for a Support test with the #MA50 levels as an Target which means that current Bullish action has Low sustainability chances. Personally I remain Short on two Targets. Market closing is crucial to monitor, if Gold closes the session above #1,900.80 psychological barrier, I might have reversal on my hands early on tomorrow's E.U. session below - every aspect is timed for a downswing.
Fundamental analysis: Price-action fluctuation and aggressive Volatility came as no surprise after Friday’s U.S. session opening which caused Bond Yields to Trade sideways and add uncertainty on Gold which resulted as almost #10 - #17 point Hourly 1 Price-action fluctuation. Hourly 4 chart turned Bearish but Daily chart stayed Neutral, which may be hinting towards #1,927.80 again (reason of current pullback). I don’t think that Gold is ready for Bearish full scale reversal towards Lower levels yet, but surely I cannot rule out wider decline within #5 sessions. Price-action is Trading around the Resistance on Hourly 1 chart, indication of indecision ahead. Also, today’s Bearish Hourly 4 candlestick pattern is an indication of increased tension and market expectations (Gold used as an hedge against Inflation). At the moment Investors should place their capital on equity markets, which are on hard Resistance levels. Gold Prices are still on late August / early September consolidation levels and historical regression analysis shows that when Trading for long on those levels, aggressive decline follows on the aftermath. Besides this, nothing else supports the upwards argument since all Hourly charts are showing Bearish values but still Fundamental pressure is evident, since Biden’s #6 Trillion spending negotiations are still present on the markets. As I said, prepare for huge Volatility/rally on Gold with Bullish / Bearish spikes all along. Fundamental catalyst for the week: NFP.
Technical analysis: I will manage the risk carefully and wait another opportunity to add additional set of Selling orders. Remember, what was an Support, becomes a Resistance when broken and same rule applies for Resistances (becoming Supports). I am fully Bearish on Gold’s Medium-term. My estimation even shows #1,800.80 possibility (Long-term) once #1,850.80 benchmark is broken. Weekly chart regressions show that Gold should continue Trading sideways for a few more weeks (aggressive Support and Resistance breaks). All my previous Resistance and Support levels remained the same/valid. Regarding Fundamentals again, outcome indeed was not the ordinary since reports came out Bullish for DX, so Gold should have dipped at least #20$ more (as statistic shows), regardless I think the market is waiting for the NFP report. It is possible though due to the less news, to see a Low Volumed flat Price-action throughout today's session, not worth risking my capital. But overall, current configurations seems like pricing the new Medium-term Resistance which confirms my Selling sentiment and outlook.
My position: As discussed above, Gold can turn both ways so I will look to extend my Profits row to #8 (#1 Stop-loss hit) and comfortably Trade the breakout. If #1,913.80 breaks, I will pursue #1,927.80 with my Buying orders. However, if #1,900.80 breaks, Price-action will trigger my Selling order with #1,871.80 Target. I will approach with extreme care and as Gold has habit lately to strongly reject the Price-action, my Stop-loss will be moved accordingly.
Fundamental analysis: Price-action fluctuation and aggressive Volatility came as no surprise after Friday’s U.S. session opening which caused Bond Yields to Trade sideways and add uncertainty on Gold which resulted as almost #10 - #17 point Hourly 1 Price-action fluctuation. Hourly 4 chart turned Bearish but Daily chart stayed Neutral, which may be hinting towards #1,927.80 again (reason of current pullback). I don’t think that Gold is ready for Bearish full scale reversal towards Lower levels yet, but surely I cannot rule out wider decline within #5 sessions. Price-action is Trading around the Resistance on Hourly 1 chart, indication of indecision ahead. Also, today’s Bearish Hourly 4 candlestick pattern is an indication of increased tension and market expectations (Gold used as an hedge against Inflation). At the moment Investors should place their capital on equity markets, which are on hard Resistance levels. Gold Prices are still on late August / early September consolidation levels and historical regression analysis shows that when Trading for long on those levels, aggressive decline follows on the aftermath. Besides this, nothing else supports the upwards argument since all Hourly charts are showing Bearish values but still Fundamental pressure is evident, since Biden’s #6 Trillion spending negotiations are still present on the markets. As I said, prepare for huge Volatility/rally on Gold with Bullish / Bearish spikes all along. Fundamental catalyst for the week: NFP.
Technical analysis: I will manage the risk carefully and wait another opportunity to add additional set of Selling orders. Remember, what was an Support, becomes a Resistance when broken and same rule applies for Resistances (becoming Supports). I am fully Bearish on Gold’s Medium-term. My estimation even shows #1,800.80 possibility (Long-term) once #1,850.80 benchmark is broken. Weekly chart regressions show that Gold should continue Trading sideways for a few more weeks (aggressive Support and Resistance breaks). All my previous Resistance and Support levels remained the same/valid. Regarding Fundamentals again, outcome indeed was not the ordinary since reports came out Bullish for DX, so Gold should have dipped at least #20$ more (as statistic shows), regardless I think the market is waiting for the NFP report. It is possible though due to the less news, to see a Low Volumed flat Price-action throughout today's session, not worth risking my capital. But overall, current configurations seems like pricing the new Medium-term Resistance which confirms my Selling sentiment and outlook.
My position: As discussed above, Gold can turn both ways so I will look to extend my Profits row to #8 (#1 Stop-loss hit) and comfortably Trade the breakout. If #1,913.80 breaks, I will pursue #1,927.80 with my Buying orders. However, if #1,900.80 breaks, Price-action will trigger my Selling order with #1,871.80 Target. I will approach with extreme care and as Gold has habit lately to strongly reject the Price-action, my Stop-loss will be moved accordingly.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
