goldenBear88

Engaged my Selling order on #1,870.80 calling for #1,833.80 Low

Short
TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold's general commentary: Gold broke the last barrier of #1,857.80 on Spot prices, confirming the last upside wave towards the multi-Month Weekly Resistance Zone of #1,870.80 - #1,880.80. Daily chart is still Bearish biased, aswell based on the Weekly chart’s and Daily chart’s possible Double Top rejection, it is indicating, by my Technical analysis, that Buying is strongly limited (Technically), but not under current market conditions (strong Fundamental Buying pressure by disappointing announcements readings which are disastrous for DX and Bond Yields). The DX (# +0.16%), is on critical crossroads and should stay above #89.75 and is likely to have strong effect on Gold. I will monitor the Price-action and which direction Gold will Trade on but surely, it is a clash between critical necessity for an aggressive correction towards #1,833.80, and Fundamental side which can pressure Gold towards #1,900.80 Higher High extension.


Fundamental analysis: I engaged my Selling orders as soon as I spotted Bullish Gap fill on Bond Yields (my main marker at the moment) and as expected Gold was priced before the new US - China report issue - and despite the report coming out negative, Bond Yields were Trading under strong pressure, which was giving me nothing but mixed signals on Gold. With Gold restricted below the Hourly 4 chart Resistance anyway, the DX decline adds extra Buying pressure. No strategy shift so far as I patiently monitor every dip that Gold makes (did that successfully throughout April). Hourly 4 chart has taken a pause from the Channel Up course to form a # 1- #2 session Rectangle on Hourly 1 chart as the absence of economic news should cause sideways action (besides FOMC minutes). Apart from that, this week's #1,860.80 - #1,868.80 High can be distinguished as an Support zone, demonstrating that the trend remains fully Bullish on Short-term, but as said, Bond Yields are Trading on a recovery candles which triggered my Selling order. With the attention still on the Trade tensity, Investors should seek for direction on this week’s Fundamental events, being a leading indicator to Inflation, directly affecting Gold. At the moment, Technically Gold is Overbought, but Fundamental pressure (debacle on most announcements) is what's keeping Gold without more aggressive decline.


Technical analysis: As Gold still tries to achieve an equilibrium with DX (currently on # +0.16% to # -0.30%), Gold still gains value more than DX does, indicating an elemental Bullish trend. Investors are still on sidelines, waiting for FOMC minutes to make their move, while peak above the Resistance line is pure speculation, especially given the Bullish Daily pattern on Bond Yields and Inflation chart on ATH. I am expecting a gradual decline to the #1,833.80 (even though that Gold is Trading on Golden Cross), before I can confidently speak about a steeper fall. At the moment Daily chart is being rejected on the #1,877.80 first Resistance fractal. The next few Daily chart candles Gold should continue to consolidate to form the right Top on the Channel Up pattern and Price-action action indicates that spikes to #1,880.80 are better off to be Sold. Global capital is on a Buying frenzy state as Gold positively beat estimates as well as the unemployment rate. With such pace capital will fly to Gold (on Long-term). For Short-term, everything is set for an aggressive correction.


My position: I engaged my Selling order on #1,870.80, calling for #1,833.80 extension. My Stop-loss is priced on #1,880.80 Resistance (Higher High upper zone). If #1,857.80 breaks, I will add more Selling orders.

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