Critical session for Gold regarding Short-term

Gold's general commentary: The Hourly 4 chart RSI sequence is identical to the February #24 - #27 #2017, which after it hit the #MA50, resulted into the sharp decline to #1,566.80 (was #MA200 then), as it could be the case now as Gold historically repeats it’s Cycles as I expect steeper fall from this point. At the same time Bond Yields are Trading on Descending Channel after Resistance / Top rejection (# - 1.03% up from Friday’s Higher High) and DX is on a semi-correction. This should pile on the Buying pressure on Gold (Xau-Usd as always on my commentary) but (can be retroactively) without any major Macro reports today, I may have to wait until tomorrow’s session for more significant action. Gold got the necessary Technical correction (as discussed, every time that Gold gets rejected on Lower High variance, Higher High zone will be tested) and I should be seeing a continuation of the downtrend if market closes below #1,851.80. May’s fractal should be fully Bearish (for Gold), as Gold become so slow to fall and quick to rise, as market speculators are preventing fair Technical trend for at least #20 sessions.


Technical analysis: Despite the Higher High test, fair Technical value of Gold (Spot prices) should be around #1,817.80 by now, according to my estimations. Gold didn’t collapsed since Fundamentals once again distorted Technical trends and postponed my expectations. DX took a decent hammering as the Price-action strongly bounced back from Resistance levels and tested Higher Low zone, which added huge Buying pressure on Gold which is evident as U.S. session approaches. The Price-action has approached the same as November #28 Bottom on a typical Intra-day Bullish fluctuation. The High Hourly 1 Volatility is an outcome of the reports missing the Target and early interpretation that positive numbers will result into more aggressive hikes. I have to account the roll over effect for futures before considering a #1,817.80 test as a product of Fibonacci scale, as the Price-action is closer to Lower High, than to Higher Low, indicating indecision on today’s session. Expect the Volatility to increase as end of May is approaching and clear formation of already mentioned pattern with #1,678.80 as an Final downside extension. Q2 is historically is most Volatile period for Gold on a Yearly cycle as I think the cycle won’t change this Year. Once the Bond Yields corrects the dip and start recovering, I can expect Lower areas to be met. Bottom line: all depends on #1,875.80 Resistance - closing above will be a call for #1,892.80 extension, below - Price-action will be calling for #1,827.80 Support test.


Fundamental analysis: Besides possible Double Top rejection on both Daily and Weekly chart (and Technical values pointing on a possible correction), Gold is rising purely on disappointing numbers on report announcements, which Buying pressure from falling DX and Yields (struggling to make a Bullish comeback) can spike up Gold towards #1,900.80 Higher High upper extension. It is indeed a clash between Technical necessity for a correction towards #1,844.80, and Fundamental Buying pressure from debacle on U.S. announcements, which has possibility to push Gold upwards towards #1,900.80.


My position: As I am well known for my Technical side, I will follow fair Technical course and add Selling order now, calling for #1,844.80 Selling extension (with Stop-loss on #1,876.80). If that fails, I will wait for #1,879.80 break, and engage Buying order, pursue #1,900.80 with my Buying order.