Gold near the ultimate Top / expecting another Selling leg

Gold's general commentary: Price-action was close to reaching again Short-term Resistance of the Higher High #1,855.80 last week (mentioned in my latest comments) much sooner than I expected as the market turned this fear into a parabolic decline similar to the March’s virus parabola that begun on mid-February. As it happened then, the market psychology was similar, and as soon as the Bond Yields start reversing again, Gold's move will deflate and reach at least the #0.500 - #0.618 Fibonacci retracement from last week's (and current) ultimate Top. That is around #1,805.80 - #1,815.80. As it was my point many times, as long as Support zone holds and rejects the Price-action, Gold will always push for the Higher High on the aftermath. It was indeed a decent Selling opportunity with Yields near Higher High on Weekly chart and DX without a recovery, but Gold ignored all those factors and remained idle for the session. The Daily chart is vastly Overbought and the RSI in particular near the #3-Month Resistance. As Traders understand even though I am a strong Long-term Seller, I am also Trading Medium-term set-ups.


Technical analysis: As expected, strong Buying pressure on Gold was surely visible as Gold on the other hand is defending the first Support quiet well. What is keeping Gold above the Support are declines on both DX and Bond Yields, taking strong hits on Friday's Wall Street opening Bell. Friday’s session violent Bullish candle sequence was calling for #1,852.80 - #1,858.80 Resistance zone test, since every Lower High test was Bought on the aftermath since February #11. Personally, I still don’t see valid reason why should I enter the market. I cannot speculate what this week will bring but surely, on Short-term Gold is Bearish (unless Price-action closes above the #1,851.80 on Hourly 4 chart). Hourly 4 chart Resistance break restores Short-term Bullish trend, below Gold is calling for Selling extension. Remember when you are uncertain of Gold's trend, look for clues at the underlying correlating instruments. As Gold still tries to achieve an equilibrium with DX (last week Trading on a mere # -0.40% DX, and # +0.69% Gold / focus on Daily numbers), DX still losses more value than Gold does. The Fundamentals of the Trade tension makes defining Technical entry/exit points extremely difficult as Volatility candles occur outside of the Technical Channels. At this point it is essential to either choose a range to Scalp or engage Medium-term position (what I will do). When the Resistance rejects the trend more than #3 times (which is the case currently) means that Buyers intent is not that strong and bigger proportion Selling leg is possible if Support breaks. I personally remain Bearish on Medium/Long-term under the Daily Neutral action of the past several weeks which suggests that Trading will continue to be performed within the #1,790.80 - #1,810.80 wide zone until Breakout occurs. Still low Risk/Reward ratio, not worth entering the market.


My position: As Gold is pumping back the Price-action on pure Fundamental catalyst, Technically Gold is Overbought on all parameters and fair Technical Price is #1,818.80 and below. Therefore, I will Sell on spot if #1,845.80 breaks, calling for #1,827.70 extension. If #1,827.80 breaks, Gold will most likely test the #1,812.80 Support, and restore Bearish sentiment on Short-term. I will contemplate Buying Gold only if market closes above #1,851.80 on today's session. As I am more than satisfied with my Profits (#4 Profits row) and I have no urge/rush to engage a new position. I will comfortably wait for a breakout.