Gold on the way to complete my #127 decline projection

Gold's general commentary: My #127 decline projection is so far providing results as Gold is not displaying extreme durability as despite the Bearish pressure provided by the Technical necessity for the Lower Low extension, besides the parallel decline of DX and Bond Yields, the Spot prices are testing #1,855.80 - #1,850.80 May #19 Support zone throughout today’s session, extending the range to #1,827.80 (Higher Low Support). In addition to that, Friday’s session High bounced exactly on the pressure point which is a sign that #1,827.80 is not far away, but may be postponed with #1,877.80 reversal on Short-term as Bond Yields are still without recovery to confirm the downtrend continuation. Hourly 4 chart's Channel Up of #2 Months was invalidated firmly, but at the same time, Weekly chart is on Negative gradient so only a new Higher High upper extension test (#1,919.80) can restore the Short-term Bullish sentiment which now seems too far away. Friday’s Resistance is posing as the Top at the moment (#1,894.80) of the Price-action but on top of it - Gold risen generally throughout last Trading week, as DX was Selling every rise and Bond Yields were on a Dead Cat bounce and still unable to find a Support which was keeping Gold on High’s. I cannot speculate how many sessions this uncertainty will last but I can confirm that Bond Yields cannot stay on Annual Low’s for more longer and even mini recovery will kickstart and practice Selling pressure on Gold (as Gold is on strong decline even without confirmation from Bond Yields). I am ready to engage my Selling order and will be patiently contemplating to do so, but engaging a position is still a gamble: #1) There is no point for Selling anymore the Fundamental aggressive rise (Yields on Low’s) #2) There is also no point in opening Buying order since Price-action can turn downwards any moment and invalidate my Position. Remember, Fundamental rises are most Volatile times as the Price-action is Trading on big spreads so finding myself on wrong end can be vulnerable for my capital. At the moment Gold is not favored heavily but all developments (Technical) are calling for Lower levels, and I can start Selling the market if #1,853.80 - #1,855.80 breaks and Yields above the Resistance.



Technical analysis: The Hourly 4 Channel Up is strongly invalidated as Price-action is now close to my projected #1,855.80 Lower High (which is also the Lower High and current Medium-term Support on Xau-Usd) and if the pattern holds, I should get a pullback towards the #1,870’s Consolidation Rectangle zone again. However, in case of the Support break, then Hourly 4 Selling extension (priced at #1,827.80) can be easily tested. If #1,853.80 - #1,855.80 breaks, next stop should be #1,827.80 - #1,833.80 Higher Low extension. Gold broken the Monthly High but failed to maintain those inflated prices and was rejected with almost #50 point dip. Remember, when you are unsure of the Medium or Long-term direction on Gold, always look for clues on correlating assets and Trade accordingly. Only when Bond Yields print an Daily chart Higher Low, I will be able to say with a Higher degree of certainty that the Bearish reversal on Gold is sustainable. Until then Gold is a Selling option but anytime, if Yields continue the Dead Cat bounce (Trading on Annual Low’s), Gold will Buy back the dip and reverse on Bullish note regarding Weekly scale. However, observing the market closing, Price-action got back on levels which can be promising structure for another Selling opportunity early on U.S. session, as I might not wait for validation of Yields to engage my Selling model. Upside seems strongly limited as Gold has underlying Selling momentum which I’ve been mentioning and referring to almost all week. Personally, I am strongly on Bearish side. Hourly charts are showing Bearish values, Daily chart turned from Neutral to Bearish. #1,827.80 and #1,800.80 are my next points of interest.


My position: Even though Bond Yields are without a recovery, I will engage my Selling order if #1,852.80 breaks, calling for #1,827.80 extension, Selling on every High. However, if Gold recovers #1,877.80 in the absence of macro-economic announcements, I will Sell from there, calling for #1,850.80 again and #1,827.80 in continuation. Since Bond Yields are without a recovery, Gold can shift very easily so make sure to apply strict Risk management and move Stop-loss every #5/6 points.