Gold soaring on Fundamental pressure / correction ahead
Gold's general commentary: As I expected, the Hourly 4 chart #1,894.80 has worked as a Resistance and as mentioned previously rejected the Price-action (on yesterday's early E.U. session back below the #1,887.80 Support which triggered my Selling order towards the day's Lower High’s. Surely, that configuration was certainly a Bearish sign and since the U.S. macro reports reported Lower readings than the forecast, the DX picked up the Buying sentiment (which was again Bearish for Gold). If it wasn't for the parallel pressure on the Bond Yields this week, I estimate Gold would have been near #1,833.80 by now at least. Gold was Trading within my projected values and #1,871.80 is my next point of interest with #1,800.80 as an final extension on this Bearish leg. Keep in mind that my approach is Swing Trading (Long-term positions) within quarterly cycles and my goal is identifying the correct trend for a longer period of time, even if it lags to a small extent.
Fundamental analysis: As expected Gold almost hit #1,871.80 benchmark and what was even more unclear to me, got rejected on Technical Support on more than #24 point recovery. Gold was near my Support zone I’ve been mentioning all week aswell I planned that CPI will have Bullish reaction on Bond Yields which could be used as final push-and-break of the #1,871.80 where I was ready with my Selling position, but Gold miraculously risen on the aftermath, of unknown to me reasons (most likely speculators postponed the downtrend). Like I said on my previous post that level (#1,871.80) representing the Weekly crucial Support since June #4 and if broken the doors would be open for #1,850.80. The last rejection on that level caused Gold to drop to #1,180.80 (June #2013 and December #2013). I am expecting a symmetrical reaction and Bearish reversal on the long run towards #1,705.80 at first, if breaks then the #1,678.80 in extension, before regrouping. Needless to say, I am expecting #1,871.80 break on early phase regarding next week.
Technical analysis: The Price of Gold firstly started the session in Bearish fashion, then increased in value # +0.37% and instantly tested upper levels with Bond Yields (Dead Cat bounce) on Annual Low’s as a catalyst. The DX, calculated by factoring in the exchange rates of six major World currencies, failed to maintain this week’s upside momentum and now should marginally close in red. In addition to this, the U.S. Treasury #10-Year Yield note (Bonds Yield) crossed below # -2.4%. Both tend to be inversely correlated with Bullish and that is Short-term reason of Gold’s constant Bullish spikes. The Technical outlook on the Weekly chart for Gold, after clearing its #2020 Yearly opening, displays a reasonably clear run towards the #1,800.80 psychological barrier, as well as nearby Support seen Trading at #1,871.80. Daily chart turned fully Bearish with RSI again on critical levels. A closer analysis of the Price-action on the Hourly 4 chart has the candles interfering with Bearish pressure point #3 points near the Resistance, which means that Gold is on it’s final try to break the Resistance, if rejected I will treat this as an Technical Top. What is worth mentioning is that the Price-action also correlates perfectly with Bond Yields and is compressing within an mini former Channel Up (Low: #0.500, High: #1,688). What’s also worth noting from a Technical configuration on Gold's RSI, displaying a divergence/Overbought reading which gives strength for Gold to finally break the Support on much expected Technical move. As Gold's Buying continuation is still not ruled out, I am not interested in Buying the market yet (unless #1,919.80 breaks where I revise my strategy). A decisive Hourly 4 chart close below #1,892.80 (entry/risk levels can be decided according to this breakout candle if the Trader wishes), opens up new Bearish scenario regarding Short-term and announces new Support test. As long as Bond Yields are on Annual Low’s, I will implement strict Risk management. My model is very Bearish regarding both Short and Medium-term.
My position: As I am more than satisfied with my Monthly results, I won' jump onto new pattern, especially after yesterday's session Volatility. Even if my first Support breaks, I will wait for Bond Yields confirmation (aswell with weekend break ahead) for now.
Fundamental analysis: As expected Gold almost hit #1,871.80 benchmark and what was even more unclear to me, got rejected on Technical Support on more than #24 point recovery. Gold was near my Support zone I’ve been mentioning all week aswell I planned that CPI will have Bullish reaction on Bond Yields which could be used as final push-and-break of the #1,871.80 where I was ready with my Selling position, but Gold miraculously risen on the aftermath, of unknown to me reasons (most likely speculators postponed the downtrend). Like I said on my previous post that level (#1,871.80) representing the Weekly crucial Support since June #4 and if broken the doors would be open for #1,850.80. The last rejection on that level caused Gold to drop to #1,180.80 (June #2013 and December #2013). I am expecting a symmetrical reaction and Bearish reversal on the long run towards #1,705.80 at first, if breaks then the #1,678.80 in extension, before regrouping. Needless to say, I am expecting #1,871.80 break on early phase regarding next week.
Technical analysis: The Price of Gold firstly started the session in Bearish fashion, then increased in value # +0.37% and instantly tested upper levels with Bond Yields (Dead Cat bounce) on Annual Low’s as a catalyst. The DX, calculated by factoring in the exchange rates of six major World currencies, failed to maintain this week’s upside momentum and now should marginally close in red. In addition to this, the U.S. Treasury #10-Year Yield note (Bonds Yield) crossed below # -2.4%. Both tend to be inversely correlated with Bullish and that is Short-term reason of Gold’s constant Bullish spikes. The Technical outlook on the Weekly chart for Gold, after clearing its #2020 Yearly opening, displays a reasonably clear run towards the #1,800.80 psychological barrier, as well as nearby Support seen Trading at #1,871.80. Daily chart turned fully Bearish with RSI again on critical levels. A closer analysis of the Price-action on the Hourly 4 chart has the candles interfering with Bearish pressure point #3 points near the Resistance, which means that Gold is on it’s final try to break the Resistance, if rejected I will treat this as an Technical Top. What is worth mentioning is that the Price-action also correlates perfectly with Bond Yields and is compressing within an mini former Channel Up (Low: #0.500, High: #1,688). What’s also worth noting from a Technical configuration on Gold's RSI, displaying a divergence/Overbought reading which gives strength for Gold to finally break the Support on much expected Technical move. As Gold's Buying continuation is still not ruled out, I am not interested in Buying the market yet (unless #1,919.80 breaks where I revise my strategy). A decisive Hourly 4 chart close below #1,892.80 (entry/risk levels can be decided according to this breakout candle if the Trader wishes), opens up new Bearish scenario regarding Short-term and announces new Support test. As long as Bond Yields are on Annual Low’s, I will implement strict Risk management. My model is very Bearish regarding both Short and Medium-term.
My position: As I am more than satisfied with my Monthly results, I won' jump onto new pattern, especially after yesterday's session Volatility. Even if my first Support breaks, I will wait for Bond Yields confirmation (aswell with weekend break ahead) for now.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
