#1,835.80 Quadruple Top point near / Buying strongly limited
Gold's general commentary: #2 important things on early E.U. opening. #1st, even though the Price-action broken the Lower High trend line from #1,800’s earlier, it failed to test and break the #1,823.80 - #1,825.80 Resistance zone, so Technically it is still below Higher High’s Upper zone, just non-linear resemblance. DX is still consolidating and is near Friday’s Low’s, as it is counterbalanced by the pullback on Bond Yields. Gold remains High under the circumstances. Price-action continues to consolidate on the Hourly 1 chart’a basis. However, Gold broke the last barrier of #1,812.80 on Spot prices, confirming the last upside wave towards the multi-Month Weekly Resistance Zone (possible Quadruple Top rejection point). Daily and Hourly charts turned Bearish again but based on the Daily chart’s Descending Channel since September #11, it is safer to Buy after every red Weekly candle (those were on November #4, December #9 and January #13 fractal). The DX is on critical crossroads and should stay above #94.10, but that is likely to have little or no effect on Gold in the coming sessions.
Technical analysis: First Short-term extension, currently Trading at #1,835.80 should reject the Price-action (Spot prices) as the diverging Ascending Channel on Hourly 4 chart is extending the recovery towards Resistance cluster again and already mentioned Higher High Upper zone. Last #3 out of #3 more serious declines on Bond Yields instantly affected Gold with enormous Buying pressure (#100% times sharply), while #5 out of #5 more serious uptrends on DX (including #52-Week High attempt lately) were strongly ignored by main correlation I have at the moment (DX - Gold), which indicates how manually Short-term fair Technical trend is affected by market speculators on Intra-day basis. My only explanation for unprecedented Volatility is that the speculators are postponing (but not altering) the (#1W) downtrend / meltdown, keeping Support zones intact for more than #25 sessions now. Gold is already in strong Overbought waters on Hourly 4 chart, while Daily chart timeframe already showing Selling signals. What is driving the Gold market though (besides the Bond Yields) is Usd-Jpy pair (DX is not important at the moment) as discussed numerous times, that has seen Trading within Neutral Rectangle since November #1 and Price-action currently testing #1-Month Support. The emerging Weekly chart’s Descending Channel will always pressure for an Selling sequence (inflated prices of Gold will be wiped out with more than #100 points within #1 Trading week shortly) could issue a serious pullback, so since I preserved my capital throughout current Bullish “hybrid” rally, I will gain more on expected Selling sequence with #1,678.80 as an final extension before Stabilization zone. That market is not under Normal conditions, indicates High impact Fundamental report NFP meeting the forecast, and on such reading, Gold was gaining (fractal last seen on #2012 Year). It would be best to wait for contact once again with the #1,812.80 first Support and stabilization on Bond Yields, to make move on Gold.
Gold tends to struggle after pricing the ATH (reminder): One of the bigger charts (#Monthly) caught my attention where ATH from #1,980 Year was Sold back later on. Second ATH , Year #2008 (Housing crisis), Gold engaged the aggressive takedown on the aftermath. Another ATH seen on August #2011, was Sold instantly and engaged multi-Week Descending Channel . Many similarities with current fractal has another August ATH (#2020 Year), where Gold engaged serious decline and is currently Trading below that level. As Gold is cyclical asset, according to my model, Gold tends to struggle after pricing new ATH , as soon High is priced, aggressive takedown occurs and Price-action forms Long-term Descending Channel , and that’s why I am heavily on Bearish side (Selling every High) as Shorting is the best way to make Profits as a retail Trader.
My position: Gold is current Trading on healthy Ascending Channel on Daily chart, but few points made me sceptical about Buying sustainability. Those are, possible Quadruple rejection on Daily chart, RSI near Overbought levels, and Bond Yields rejection throughout early E.U. session. I will Buy Gold only if #1,835.80 breaks (towards #1,850.80 configuration), while I give more probabilities to the downside, where I will Sell on spot if #1,812.80 breaks (towards #1,792.80 Support zone), aswell confirmed with Bond Yields recovery in continuation. Traders will witness how easy to fall Gold has become, as it is Trading currently on Inflated prices.
Technical analysis: First Short-term extension, currently Trading at #1,835.80 should reject the Price-action (Spot prices) as the diverging Ascending Channel on Hourly 4 chart is extending the recovery towards Resistance cluster again and already mentioned Higher High Upper zone. Last #3 out of #3 more serious declines on Bond Yields instantly affected Gold with enormous Buying pressure (#100% times sharply), while #5 out of #5 more serious uptrends on DX (including #52-Week High attempt lately) were strongly ignored by main correlation I have at the moment (DX - Gold), which indicates how manually Short-term fair Technical trend is affected by market speculators on Intra-day basis. My only explanation for unprecedented Volatility is that the speculators are postponing (but not altering) the (#1W) downtrend / meltdown, keeping Support zones intact for more than #25 sessions now. Gold is already in strong Overbought waters on Hourly 4 chart, while Daily chart timeframe already showing Selling signals. What is driving the Gold market though (besides the Bond Yields) is Usd-Jpy pair (DX is not important at the moment) as discussed numerous times, that has seen Trading within Neutral Rectangle since November #1 and Price-action currently testing #1-Month Support. The emerging Weekly chart’s Descending Channel will always pressure for an Selling sequence (inflated prices of Gold will be wiped out with more than #100 points within #1 Trading week shortly) could issue a serious pullback, so since I preserved my capital throughout current Bullish “hybrid” rally, I will gain more on expected Selling sequence with #1,678.80 as an final extension before Stabilization zone. That market is not under Normal conditions, indicates High impact Fundamental report NFP meeting the forecast, and on such reading, Gold was gaining (fractal last seen on #2012 Year). It would be best to wait for contact once again with the #1,812.80 first Support and stabilization on Bond Yields, to make move on Gold.
Gold tends to struggle after pricing the ATH (reminder): One of the bigger charts (#Monthly) caught my attention where ATH from #1,980 Year was Sold back later on. Second ATH , Year #2008 (Housing crisis), Gold engaged the aggressive takedown on the aftermath. Another ATH seen on August #2011, was Sold instantly and engaged multi-Week Descending Channel . Many similarities with current fractal has another August ATH (#2020 Year), where Gold engaged serious decline and is currently Trading below that level. As Gold is cyclical asset, according to my model, Gold tends to struggle after pricing new ATH , as soon High is priced, aggressive takedown occurs and Price-action forms Long-term Descending Channel , and that’s why I am heavily on Bearish side (Selling every High) as Shorting is the best way to make Profits as a retail Trader.
My position: Gold is current Trading on healthy Ascending Channel on Daily chart, but few points made me sceptical about Buying sustainability. Those are, possible Quadruple rejection on Daily chart, RSI near Overbought levels, and Bond Yields rejection throughout early E.U. session. I will Buy Gold only if #1,835.80 breaks (towards #1,850.80 configuration), while I give more probabilities to the downside, where I will Sell on spot if #1,812.80 breaks (towards #1,792.80 Support zone), aswell confirmed with Bond Yields recovery in continuation. Traders will witness how easy to fall Gold has become, as it is Trading currently on Inflated prices.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
