Bullish pressure showing signs of exhaustion / Indecision candle

Gold's general commentary: The Hourly 4 chart’a Ascending Channel is still untouched, so Technically I don't have confirmation of a possible reversal (which will occur if Bond Yields extend the recovery). Most likely, I will get Selling signal this week, so patience if during this flat week no Selling signals are delivered. DX is still consolidating and is near Friday’s Low’s, as it is counterbalanced by the pullback on Bond Yields. Gold remains High under the circumstances. Price-action continues to consolidate on the Hourly 1 chart’a basis. However, Gold broke the last barrier of #1,812.80 on Spot prices, confirming the last upside wave towards the multi-Month Weekly Resistance Zone (possible Quadruple Top rejection point). Daily and Hourly charts turned Bearish again but based on the Daily chart’s Descending Channel since September #11, it is safer to Buy after every red Weekly candle (those were on November #4, December #9 and January #13 fractal). The DX is on critical crossroads and should stay above #93.80 Support (Neutral Rectangle), but that is likely to have little or no effect on Gold in the coming sessions. Gold is now Fundamentally equipped for pausing an uptrend, but I cannot speculate until when. Technically, both on Oscillators and Candlesticks , Gold should lose value with every Hourly candle minimum to #1,800.80 barrier. Trading against Fundamentals (Stimulus already digested by the markets as I expect normal market conditions in the next #3 Months) is dangerous game and I will approach with extreme care. Again, Gold should fall but Fundamentals again are guiding the market so I will continue Selling the market as situation stabilize. This Trading week is action packed with macroeconomic factors so expect High Volatility, especially on current important Short-term crossroads. If #1,812.80 breaks, it will be quick spike towards #1,800.80, while #1,825.80 break (and market closing above, indicates #1,835.80 test and Buying extension.)


Technical analysis: Bond Yields panic continues as Investors (as usual) use Gold as a safe-haven. Final Resistance is not compromised and if Gold closes today’s session below it (#1,832.80.) it is sign of that Bullish potential is near the end (or at least showing signs of exhaustion). Personally, with RSI above consolidation Rectangle and Bond Yields on mini recovery attempt, I doubt that I will see some Bullish action throughout today’s session. Friday's session Gap is filled, Daily chart got the necessary Technical correction as I should be seeing a continuation of the downtrend back towards the Support priced at #1,812.80. That would be on any other occasion however as due to Fed tightening speculations and cautious sentiment (passing the Bill), market is not under normal conditions. This is obvious as DX is Trading within Daily chart’s Rectangle (Lower zone) aiming to yet another Low and Bond Yields on a spiral downtrend (but showing recovery signs). This configuration adds more Buying pressure on Gold regarding Short-term. In my opinion Bond Yields are they key, if they extend their recovery (and Usd-Jpy makes it’s first Bullish Daily engulfing candle) Gold will follow it’s Technical Bearish course towards fair Technical Price (Medium-term). Otherwise it will have to be postponed until end of the week. I am not willing to Buy Gold as these are Fundamentally driven sessions, as Technical rules don’t apply much in similar situations. At the moment the Price-action is merely consolidating regarding Hourly 1 chart, as I am not making strategy shift so far. The Price-action has been struggling to get past the #1,822.80 barrier all session long (U.S. opening) as the possible Quadruple Top and Daily chart’s Resistance applies Selling pressure besides Bond Yields on Weekly Lows. However, with the Fundamental reports announcements reaction staying flat and Bond Yields struggling to make Bullish comeback - Bearish outlook is postponed, but not invalidated. However, the downside offers more potential and I will wait for the rejection again on early U.S. opening Bell. Unless the Trade war escalates down the road, which is a largely unpredictable factor, Gold will engage the correction.


My position: I cannot rule out #1,835.80 test ahead, but taking aspects in consideration, there are certain aspects that made me sceptical about #1,850.80 in extension. #1,835.80 should be Ultimate Top area, and better Selling signal awaits there. However, if #1,817.80 gets tested and aggressively broken, Gold will pursue #1,812.80 Support. If broken #1,800.80 barrier will be on the cards. #1,812.80 break negates Short-term Buying bias.