Critical session for Gold regarding Short-term / CPI on stage
Gold's general commentary: Gold has formed one narrow and one wider Ascending Channel on the Hourly 1 and 4 chart. Since Price-action broke above the #1,822.80 mark with force (and comfortably Trading above it), the Hourly 1 chart’s reversal crossed into a Bullish territory, and with Bond Yields on a downtrend (struggling to make Bullish comeback for more than #5 sessions horizon), Buyers re-appeared as Gold entered the Bullish formation, with #1,832.80 - #1,835.80 as an ultimate Top zone. On the other hand, Buying response was expected regardless as Price-action broken the upper Bollinger bands line (last time such scenario occurred is on the September #23 fractal). As such any pullback towards the #1,812.80 and apparent rejection remains an additional Selling opportunity. Unless the strong Support breaks (#1,817.80), the Bullish sentiment remains intact. Engaging a Selling order is tempting but it is Highly dangerous to Sell on a such Buying (Fundamental) bias. Further upwards, the previous Month High could be challenged, but chances for that outlook to develop are very slim. A breach of the #1,817.80 key Support could trigger a sharp takedown towards #1,800.80 psychological barrier, than June #2020 Low’s of around #1,722.80, on Medium-term.
Fundamental analysis: Gold has hit and invalidated the #1,820.80 July #16 Low, which is currently posing as an Resistance (remember my rule: what was the Support when broken becomes the Resistance and vice-versa). The Daily chart’s Support zone is far away from current configuration and in #2 Years it has always provided the Medium-term accumulation point for Sellers (slight exception the March #13 break on the virus asset wide meltdown which still lasted for less than #10 sessions). Since #1-Week High is broken of #1,823.80 and Gold didn’t extended the recovery candles towards #1,832.80 rejection, therefore I believe a Selling towards #1,817.80 Lower High extension offers great value currently, if market closes below #1,823.80. It is important to note that surrounding the DX extended some support to the DX-denominated commodity and might help limit any further gains on Gold, at least for current configuration. Sellers await for a sustained break below the #1,817.80 mark before positioning for any further takedown move within relevant market-moving economic data (macro-economic). If #1,835.80 breaks however (as an last line of the defence for Sellers), Gold could spike up towards #1,847.80 extension (less likely with critically Overbought indicators and CPI numbers announcements ahead).
Technical analysis: Gold has tested and reversed near the #1,834.80, July #16 peak High, which is currently posing as an Resistance zone. I spotted necessary similarities on Daily chart after the latest #1,838.80 Monthly High, in a candle sequence that resembles the sideways movement from July #15, July #29, (abnormal wick on August #4), September #3, and November #9. This suggests that Technically, Hourly 4 chart can’t stay Bullish anymore and should turn fully Bearish any moment due to the eminent recovery on Bond Yields. This slowdown on Daily chart is also an indication that the Bearish trend / correction is not far away, and that the Weekly chart is charging Medium-term Bearish reversal. I still didn’t spotted Profitable pattern and my focus on the Usd-Jpy and Bond Yields is Higher than before since Investors should pull all capital from Gold to riskier assets. DX was strongly rejected on #93.80 Support and can reach #94.20 before it rebounds. Keep cross checking with Bond Yields also as a Price-action below current one invalidates Bearish continuation (#1,817.80 and below). A flat Trading session so far on Hourly 4 chart (with #2 minor spikes and Spinning Tops (indecision candle)) which raises no further need for analytical approach than what I’ve already done. Gold is Trading above the Bollinger bands (last time Gold was Trading on similar values, January #6), Gold engaged almost #150 point decline on the aftermath). Current fractal offers no Medium-term “firm ground” for upside potential to be sustainable, which haven’t been met. As discussed lately "this Trading week comes packed with major economic announcements that can affect Gold's Price-action”, and I see that throughout today’s session, emphatically as there is CPI catalyst to move the Price-action downwards or upwards. I shifted my focus on Bond Yields which will dictate Price-action of Gold. If #1,817.80 Support breaks, that should be a call for #1,800.80 extension, so I’ll take that opportunity if it arises. Another rejection so far on #1,832.80 - #1,835.80 Resistance cluster, after one of the many failed break attempts since early July. If another attempt fails and CPI delivers greater numbers than the forecast, Gold should pierce #1,800.80 extension within #2 sessions on Hourly 1 chart’s Bearish Divergence.
Fundamental analysis: Gold has hit and invalidated the #1,820.80 July #16 Low, which is currently posing as an Resistance (remember my rule: what was the Support when broken becomes the Resistance and vice-versa). The Daily chart’s Support zone is far away from current configuration and in #2 Years it has always provided the Medium-term accumulation point for Sellers (slight exception the March #13 break on the virus asset wide meltdown which still lasted for less than #10 sessions). Since #1-Week High is broken of #1,823.80 and Gold didn’t extended the recovery candles towards #1,832.80 rejection, therefore I believe a Selling towards #1,817.80 Lower High extension offers great value currently, if market closes below #1,823.80. It is important to note that surrounding the DX extended some support to the DX-denominated commodity and might help limit any further gains on Gold, at least for current configuration. Sellers await for a sustained break below the #1,817.80 mark before positioning for any further takedown move within relevant market-moving economic data (macro-economic). If #1,835.80 breaks however (as an last line of the defence for Sellers), Gold could spike up towards #1,847.80 extension (less likely with critically Overbought indicators and CPI numbers announcements ahead).
Technical analysis: Gold has tested and reversed near the #1,834.80, July #16 peak High, which is currently posing as an Resistance zone. I spotted necessary similarities on Daily chart after the latest #1,838.80 Monthly High, in a candle sequence that resembles the sideways movement from July #15, July #29, (abnormal wick on August #4), September #3, and November #9. This suggests that Technically, Hourly 4 chart can’t stay Bullish anymore and should turn fully Bearish any moment due to the eminent recovery on Bond Yields. This slowdown on Daily chart is also an indication that the Bearish trend / correction is not far away, and that the Weekly chart is charging Medium-term Bearish reversal. I still didn’t spotted Profitable pattern and my focus on the Usd-Jpy and Bond Yields is Higher than before since Investors should pull all capital from Gold to riskier assets. DX was strongly rejected on #93.80 Support and can reach #94.20 before it rebounds. Keep cross checking with Bond Yields also as a Price-action below current one invalidates Bearish continuation (#1,817.80 and below). A flat Trading session so far on Hourly 4 chart (with #2 minor spikes and Spinning Tops (indecision candle)) which raises no further need for analytical approach than what I’ve already done. Gold is Trading above the Bollinger bands (last time Gold was Trading on similar values, January #6), Gold engaged almost #150 point decline on the aftermath). Current fractal offers no Medium-term “firm ground” for upside potential to be sustainable, which haven’t been met. As discussed lately "this Trading week comes packed with major economic announcements that can affect Gold's Price-action”, and I see that throughout today’s session, emphatically as there is CPI catalyst to move the Price-action downwards or upwards. I shifted my focus on Bond Yields which will dictate Price-action of Gold. If #1,817.80 Support breaks, that should be a call for #1,800.80 extension, so I’ll take that opportunity if it arises. Another rejection so far on #1,832.80 - #1,835.80 Resistance cluster, after one of the many failed break attempts since early July. If another attempt fails and CPI delivers greater numbers than the forecast, Gold should pierce #1,800.80 extension within #2 sessions on Hourly 1 chart’s Bearish Divergence.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
