Cincinnatuus
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GOLD Look Ahead for week starting 1/12/20

TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold is in a long-term Bull Market with price trading above the 50 week ema , which is above the 200 and 800 week emas. The long term emas are currently still trending up, despite price action correcting over the last week. As geopolitics with Iran has settled down price has corrected back down. Price would have to drop all the way down to 1500 in order to be considered to be correcting on the weekly charts.

Other factors affecting the price of Gold such as recent Dollar strength and FED Repo/ QE programs pumping liquidity, have become headwinds or are having a lesser impact now that we are in the New Year. The dollar has a little higher to go in the week ahead, so expect Gold weakness as a result.

The Commodity is in a long-term Bull Market with price trading above the 50 day ema , which is above the 200 and 800 day emas. The 50 day ema is currently up trending, with Gold trading up in a strong b-wave flat that traded over the previous highs of 1557.10 before trending down again. In an Elliott Wave flat correction the c-wave trades down below the a-wave low, which is at 1445.50, so expect the down-trend to head back down there before completing longer term.

The Commodity is in a Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price above the 50 ema , which is above the 200 ema , which is above the 800 ema . The long term emas have flattened out here as price has corrected down from the new high. With price breaking back above the 9 and 13 emas, gold has technically went back into a bull market.

On a trading time frame, the Elliott Wave patterns start becoming more recognizable, and point to a degree of caution in the near term. It looks like gold needs to roll over and go down to test the lows before having a chance at making another run at the highs. This fits in with the trend and position of the dollar, and likely timing on tensions in the Middle East.

This is my GOLD look ahead for my own trading purposes. COMMODITIES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
Trade closed: target reached: Gold followed the pattern last week, though testing the lows early before trading higher later in the week. The test of the lows was a clear three waves, so not impulsive, and shows market weakness, implying a deeper wave lower in the near future. Gold needs to finish out this b-wave with a final c-wave above the a-wave highs. Note the stop hunts at the highs and lows of the a-wave 5th wave...

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