MagicPoopCannon

Corporate Bonds Flash Signs of Collapse! (HYG)

AMEX:HYG   ISHARES TRUST IBOXX USD HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND ETF
Hi friends! Welcome to this never-before-seen analysis, on the High Yield Corporate Bond market, via the weekly chart for the HYG ETF! Let's get right to it!

Looking at the high yield corporate bond market, we can immediately see that the technical picture is quite grim. We have a very clear, massive head and shoulders pattern that is currently developing. Specifically, price is in the process of completing the right shoulder. Keep in mind, that this is a weekly chart, so each candlestick on the chart contains an entire week of trading. As you can see on the chart, the past few months have been practically straight down.

In case you aren't sure about what high yield corporate bonds are, they can be described as a type of corporate bond that offers a higher rate of interest because of its higher risk of default. When companies with a greater estimated default risk issue bonds, they may be unable to obtain an investment-grade bond credit rating. As a result, they typically issue bonds with higher interest rates in order to entice investors and compensate them for this higher risk.

High-yield bond issuers may be companies characterized as "highly leveraged" or those experiencing financial difficulties. Smaller or emerging companies may also have to issue high-yield bonds to offset unproven operating histories or because their financial plans may be considered speculative or risky. That is how the SEC defines high yield corporate bonds.

With that said, it's no secret that Corporate America is heavily leveraged to debt. As I've reported before, they are depending on EPS growth and increased stock prices, to sustain themselves during this period of historic debt leveraging. Corporate America is engaging in high risk activity, and they will be completely destroyed if the stock market collapses.

According to the SEC's definition of economic risks, in relation to the high yield corporate bond market, they warn that "if the economy falters, some investors are likely to try to sell their bonds. In what is known as a “flight to quality,” a number of investors may decide to replace their riskier high-yield bonds with safer ones, such as US Treasury bonds. In addition, some companies that issue high-yield bonds may be less able to weather challenging economic circumstances, increasing the risk of default."

In response to the "flight to quality" scenario, I would argue that US Treasury bonds aren't "high quality" at all. Sure, they may currently be rated as AAA , but there is a very clear debt bubble, a bubble in the bond market, and the potential for foreign nations like China, to sell trillions of dollars of US Treasuries into the market, which would collapse the bond market and cause interest rates to skyrocket.

Regardless, it's clear that the high yield corporate bond market is under major pressure. The reason is because the stock market is beginning to implode, and the holders of these high risk GARBAGE corporate bonds, are starting to run for the hills. This chart is showing us that the stock market is likely to continue to fall. It's showing us that declining equity prices are likely going to PUNISH companies who are over leveraged to debt. That's why I've said in recent analyses that we could see rolling corporate bankruptcies in the US, as companies default to the debt that they are so heavily levered against.

On the chart, price is clearly forming a head and shoulders pattern. Price is also in a massive downtrend channel (in blue) that extends as far back as 2007. To reach the bottom of the channel, bond prices could fall 45% from current levels, and it could get much worse than that. Sell side volume is exploding on the chart. I don't want to spread panic, but this is a very serious issue that could easily cause a domino effect of debt defaults worldwide. That's why I believe we could even witness a currency crisis, if things get bad enough.

Happy New Year Everyone!

I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.

***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***

-JD-


@MagicPoopCannon, the HYG data on trading view is bad for the early years here. They do not properly list the adjusted price of HYG in the 2007-2009 years, so that trendline you drew doesn't actually exist. Just thought you should know. You can check it out on other charting services or yahoo finance.
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What does this mean for XBT?
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purplewavez marcandrecowie
@marcandrecowie, looks inversely correlated... for now...
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@MagicPoopCannon ive been stalking your views for some time, but recently hit the follow button. Saw your call on the btc short from ath and am a believer. Based on how this market is looking, what are you doing to prepare for a collapse?
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@MagicPoopCannon, Excellent explanation Mr. Poop. Very interesting scenario unfolding. Well done. Good to have someone showing us where things are really at.
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Awesome analysis MagicPoopCannon
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This etf will hit $78.50 by Jan 21
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Could you look at Silver (SLV) or silver futures?

I'm bigger on silver then gold for SHTF on bonds... but what do you think of Silver or other precious metals?
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NQ95 crayola11
@crayola11, what other precious metals are you talking about?
(About Silver Im thinking the same actually, structurally, the graph is amazing for it)
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Thanks for doing all these different charts MPC

I know it isn't easy and takes a lot of time.

What are your thoughts on Treasuries? SHY, BND etc?

Happy holidays bro!
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