In terms of the macro cycle, I think we are somewhere similar to early 2002. I.E. We're fresh out of a cycle low for and which means the new bull market has already started, but it can only be seen in momentum, for particular ( copper & wheat ), and smart money moving into the past few months. By the time price is showing a technical breakout smart money will be selling into from moving average breakout chasers. That being said, this commodity bull market can last a long time but it won't come without its . it will be important not to chase extreme moves, but rather be patient and wait to buy on pullbacks. Experience has taught us to wait for weakness to buy and to sell into strength.
If you're not convinced Agriculture is breaking out, look at $IPI Intrepid Potash $Corn $Sugar.
With the assumption that is in the 2nd or 3rd inning of the cycle, stocks like $ICL still have a lot higher to go even though its moved a lot off of its cycle low. Notice that the cycle low was right at the opening original price 14 years ago. The long-term structure of $ICL's price trends shows a well-managed and healthy company that does well in commodity cycles and shareholders haven't been diluted to death in a long-term bear market.
Additionally, $ICL is a similar company to $IPI intrepid potash , but it is better managed and more diversified and internationally-oriented which gives it less market risk and an advantage in terms of globalism-accelerating and Israel having a security and investment advantage on the global market. This being said, $ICL still has 500% upside over a trend-duration to get to a new all-time high, while $IPI potentially has much more than that (1000%+) should it ever overcome the long-term bear market and equity dilution.
Not an equity analyst or licensed professional. Do your own DD.
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My views expressed here are separate from and do not reflect the views of iGoldAdvisor. iGoldAdvisor is a mentor and a friend.