CharlesPark
Long

IOTA, Torturing me 2 months!

BITFINEX:IOTUSD   IOTA / U.S. Dollar
Hello. There are several things I want to show you.

First of all,
we need to see the chart. I drew three types of line in the price chart.
1.Blue dot line(Support / Resistance line)
2.Pink dot line(I connected open/close bottom price recently)
3.Red line(It's not about the price, it's about volume downtrend)

Blue dot line is showing you that the price was drawing some kind of triangle pattern , which had breakout yesterday, and going below the resistance line, which is really fearful news!
You need to consider this : breakout should be confirmed by volume .
Especially we're dealing with two-months old big triangle which is not common in cryptocurrency trading, which means that the breakout trading volume should be bigger(enough to pop out of red volume trend line I drew) and should bring bigger downtrend.
Yesterday the price decreased from $2.5 to $2.2 in one day, which is huge(about 15% loss) but not more than that. So I'm suspicious of the "break" happened yesterday.

Well, pink dot line is not ordinary trend line . I may missed fundamental TA study,
but I think trend line should be connected using highest price and lowest price. not like the way I used.
I just connected open/close price of the bottoms recently(in 2 months) and it has its own trend!
I think it is some kind of secret support.
And if you look into the chart yesterday carefully, you may notice that "break" yesterday touched the "secret" line I drew. The price didn't go below than that. Isn't it odd?
(By the way, about the "secret" trend line , I think it is not ordinary way to draw, but I'm not sure. If you know this kind of drawing trend line is also acceptable, please tell me about that. I'm newbie and need to learn.)

I have hypothesis that the secret line I drew may be real support line,
which makes this triangle looking pattern expanded to descending wedge pattern, which is bullish .

Secondary, I have indicators to show you.

MACD and RSI went down almost same level / lower than the level before 2 months, when the pump of IOTA price happened, but the price is still higher than 2 months ago. It is called hidden divergence, and it happens often in growing market, to gather the power to jump further level.
(Indicators : lower low / Price : higher low)
will it recover soon? I have no idea. Yes the hidden divergence is bullish signal in this situation, but it don't tell you when exactly it'll recover the price and go higher level.

OBV is also looking good. Even the price decreased almost 60% in two months considering all time high($5.8), weird thing is that OBV is in stable state(decreasing not so much) This is another divergence, may suggest that the demand(buying power) has stayed stable for 2 months even in downtrend.
(indicator : stable trend / price : downtrend)

Overall, with not ordinary trend line drawing and some indicators, I have hypothesis that it is actually descending wedge pattern, which want us to sell IOTA to gather power, so that the price jump to next level.

Should we buy now then? I don't think so. I said previous article about ICX that we should buy at the breakout point, not in the consolidation phase(like now...)
There is possibility that I have wrong opinion, and may go downward to torture me more 1 month.
Breakout point will be break of resistance line I drew.

One more thing : you should consider BTC             bearish movement, because recent all the crash and pump affected IOTA movement.
Even if I'm right about the chart, BTC             have enough potential to drag IOTA out of my analysis.
Comment: My "secret support" line was broken yesterday, and didn't come back to that(the price just touched "secret" and came back to its lower price.)
Yes.. how horrible is that...! Maybe the "secret" was't important at all.
(But I did that 1 month ago, I regret it)

I don't see any hope yet, but I don't give up and will update with new analysis.
I think this chart was fundamentally wrong with the basic "secret support" idea.
Comment:

I found this idea and it is similar point of view(descending wedge)
But it does not prove me I'm right. I'll study more, and will come back with good news!
Comment:
If you cannot see the chart exactly, you can click the chart to enlarge.

IOTA recently dropped from the descending wedge pattern because of panic selling of BTC 9.55% .
and the price recovered like BTC 9.55% , and just touched previous support line(resistance line now)

So what would be next movement? I think it'll get in the descending wedge again.
The indicators can be used to explain the pattern.

RSI is making kind of double bottom pattern, RSI is going above of previous resistance peak,
and also we need to consider that RSI went below 30 zone which is oversold. so overall I think buying power will be dominant, unless something bad(like BTC 9.55% crash again) happen.

Momentum also confirms decreasing bearish power.
Although the price made lowest low considering recent 2 month 2 days ago, actual bearish power was strongest about 1 week ago. It is divergence between momentum and the price, which implies us potential of emerging bullish power.

Aroon , another indicator is also can be used compare strength of bearish power vs bullish power.
But it doesn't confirm the trend yet.
It is true : Bullish power(orange line) is increasing, but It is also true : Bearish power(Blue line) is still dominant.
In this case, Aroon should make cross line like MACD . It seems to make two lines met, but who knows? until those two line meet, I cannot figure exact information.

Overall, 2 of 3 indicators implies me that it just met the bottom and may change the trend( bearish to bullish )
and 1 of 3 indicator doesn't confirm current situation.

I still think IOT 14.29% will be bullish .
Comment: Quick update : local(4h chart, not daily chart) RSI signal shows me that it is overbought phase; locally(in 4h chart) the price will go down lower. Which also means that it will be away from the resistance line.
Comment: The price came back to wedge inside.
"which had breakout yesterday, and going below the resistance line, " -> below the support line. sorry about that.
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