Next moves for NASDAQ (IXIC)? Bull/bear scenarios, bear emphasis
The NASDAQ (IXIC) is now at a decision point. It has completed wave 5 and its subsequent ABC correction of a significant 5 wave cycle that started in June of 2016 (I'll post a log scale image indicating this below). The above chart demonstrates the drop to the trend line on 4/2 that completed this major wave.
Now we await the next move in the NASDAQ. Bulls could hope for a new cycle to start and the NASDAQ to go on to new all time highs.
Bears (myself included at this time) may be looking for a pull back in the coming weeks, possibly to the logarithmic trend line (around roughly 6200) for a cycle that started in February of 2016. This would complete wave 3 and 4, and would be the start of a (possibly truncated) wave 5. Under this scenario, after this 5th wave is completed, the NASDAQ would fall to the log trend line of an even larger 5 wave cycle that started in 2009. This is a pretty far out projection (months to even a year or more), but it is an important consideration because the implication would be that the NASDAQ has already reached its all time high for the near future, and we need to plan for a potential bear cycle to start in the coming months/years.
For the immediate future however, I am watching to see if we get a continued retracement of the recent ABC correction. This could be a move up to the 7200 to 7300+ range as noted above for a 50-61.8% retracement of the recent move down off the all time highs. Alternatively, the more modest retracement the NASDAQ/IXIC has already completed could be just about all we get, and the move toward the lower trend line ensues more rapidly. This will become more clear in the next few days.
I have not really elaborated on a more long term bull scenario at this time as I have a hard time seeing the NASDAQ moving on the new all time highs. I will explain in more detail via images below.
Now we await the next move in the NASDAQ. Bulls could hope for a new cycle to start and the NASDAQ to go on to new all time highs.
Bears (myself included at this time) may be looking for a pull back in the coming weeks, possibly to the logarithmic trend line (around roughly 6200) for a cycle that started in February of 2016. This would complete wave 3 and 4, and would be the start of a (possibly truncated) wave 5. Under this scenario, after this 5th wave is completed, the NASDAQ would fall to the log trend line of an even larger 5 wave cycle that started in 2009. This is a pretty far out projection (months to even a year or more), but it is an important consideration because the implication would be that the NASDAQ has already reached its all time high for the near future, and we need to plan for a potential bear cycle to start in the coming months/years.
For the immediate future however, I am watching to see if we get a continued retracement of the recent ABC correction. This could be a move up to the 7200 to 7300+ range as noted above for a 50-61.8% retracement of the recent move down off the all time highs. Alternatively, the more modest retracement the NASDAQ/IXIC has already completed could be just about all we get, and the move toward the lower trend line ensues more rapidly. This will become more clear in the next few days.
I have not really elaborated on a more long term bull scenario at this time as I have a hard time seeing the NASDAQ moving on the new all time highs. I will explain in more detail via images below.
Trade active:
My wave analysis dating back to 2009 on the log scale.
Given Elliott Wave principle suggests two waves are typically of similar size (here waves 3 and 5 on the log scale), we could be lead to believe that wave 5 has peaked and that we are now due for a retracement.