Hey guys,
If any of you have seen, I was calling a 500 point (conservative) dip in the Nasdaq a couple weeks ago and we seem to have got around that (A 900 point dip, even better).
Correction seems to be over for the most part. We have a positive slopping 5 Day Moving Average, the Ichimoku cloud seems to have some good readings here indicating a strong uptrend. Only thing I'd be worried about is that 0.236 retraction. I expect it to show some resistance due to the heavy uptrend over the past couple days, only question is whether or not it will act as resistance for the uptrend or support for the downtrend...
So let's say the correction is over and we're back up. I expect Nasdaq to move up to .236, then back down to .382 (Which is the yearly vwap on the QQQ if you use that) and then continue on upward to the ATH. If the .236 level acts as a very minor resistance point, uptrend is 100% confirmed, get in immediately if that's the case until we hit the ATH.
Let's say correction is not over, which it could not be due to the negative CPI report released on Wednesday. If that's the case, we expect some support on the way downward such as the top of the cloud, the 5 Day MA, or the .382 retractment. However, due to the high VIX level, odds are a move downward would be very strong, lots of volume, and would blow right through all those points. Final target for that would be around 6400.
Either way, money is to be made. Be smart and Optimize profits guys. Don't tell the market what to think, listen to it.
Good Luck and if you have questions, ask away in the comments.
If any of you have seen, I was calling a 500 point (conservative) dip in the Nasdaq a couple weeks ago and we seem to have got around that (A 900 point dip, even better).
Correction seems to be over for the most part. We have a positive slopping 5 Day Moving Average, the Ichimoku cloud seems to have some good readings here indicating a strong uptrend. Only thing I'd be worried about is that 0.236 retraction. I expect it to show some resistance due to the heavy uptrend over the past couple days, only question is whether or not it will act as resistance for the uptrend or support for the downtrend...
So let's say the correction is over and we're back up. I expect Nasdaq to move up to .236, then back down to .382 (Which is the yearly vwap on the QQQ if you use that) and then continue on upward to the ATH. If the .236 level acts as a very minor resistance point, uptrend is 100% confirmed, get in immediately if that's the case until we hit the ATH.
Let's say correction is not over, which it could not be due to the negative CPI report released on Wednesday. If that's the case, we expect some support on the way downward such as the top of the cloud, the 5 Day MA, or the .382 retractment. However, due to the high VIX level, odds are a move downward would be very strong, lots of volume, and would blow right through all those points. Final target for that would be around 6400.
Either way, money is to be made. Be smart and Optimize profits guys. Don't tell the market what to think, listen to it.
Good Luck and if you have questions, ask away in the comments.
Comment:
7300 seems to be broken! Maybe it's a little early for a confirmation but I'm moving up stop losses on all my positions and gonna enjoy the ride up!
Comment:
As I was watching the market above 7300, I noticed some really significant signs that influenced some of my decisions today. Volume was ridiculously low on the green bars we experienced, so the moment I saw a red bar with significant volume today, I decided to take an all cash position (when the nasdaq was up 0.8%).
Proved to be a decent move, I'm completely cash right now, and just waiting on what the market wants to do. We still have a rising 5-Day MA, but I'm very skeptical right now about an upward move due to the pessimistic trading occurring. Not gonna make any predictions, just sitting in cash until the market decides to go up or down
Proved to be a decent move, I'm completely cash right now, and just waiting on what the market wants to do. We still have a rising 5-Day MA, but I'm very skeptical right now about an upward move due to the pessimistic trading occurring. Not gonna make any predictions, just sitting in cash until the market decides to go up or down
Comment:
Just because I'm trying to keep this post updated everyday for those interested, today was a very eye opening day.
7200 has been confirmed as a ridiculous support point with some immense strength, however these frequent retest are very frightening. If you look closely, you may even be able to see a complex head and shoulders forming.
I'm gonna wait to see whether or not this support holds, but a drop down could give it a price target of 7080 or so, so be on the lookout for a drop.
This is why we're cash in uncertain times. It's harder to make back money you've lost than it is to make money in the first place!
7200 has been confirmed as a ridiculous support point with some immense strength, however these frequent retest are very frightening. If you look closely, you may even be able to see a complex head and shoulders forming.
I'm gonna wait to see whether or not this support holds, but a drop down could give it a price target of 7080 or so, so be on the lookout for a drop.
This is why we're cash in uncertain times. It's harder to make back money you've lost than it is to make money in the first place!
Comment:
Hey Guys! Back to give an update here! Finally had a chance to sit down and evaluate what I feel the market is doing!
So it looks like the correction is indeed coming to an end. It's still not confirmed but the high volume move on Friday, along with closing higher for the first time in 5 trading sessions is a very good sign for the market. I actually took a long, diversified position the moment I saw 7300 break with good volume and made a nice 0.5% in the last hour of trading.
What happened was that the 5-Day MA actually held the market up, and this little channel that formed could have been the "Time" Correction that the market needed. As we know there are such things as time corrections and price corrections, so this channel may have just been what we needed to advance to the ATH's.
We still need to be cautious though and I'm setting my stop-losses pretty tight because the SPY still needs to break a resistance point and we actually need to close above the recent resistance points set by previous trading days.
If we could open Monday green with good volume, don't be shocked to see the second leg here carry on towards 7500, a very nice 2% plus in just the index, not even individual stock picks. If we open Monday down, doesn't quite mean we're done going up. just could be the retraction needed to continue the momentum upward.
My most liberal stop-loss is still 7200, if that point fails, we're in trouble, However, I like to trade on margin with a very diversified portfolio to help increase gains while lowering my co-variance, so I'm personally gonna set a stricter stop loss of around 7283 or so, then continue to wait on the sidelines until the market makes clear what it wants to do. If the market continues upward on Monday, I'll probably make a whole new post than continue this one since it would call for a new setup.
Any questions, feel free to leave them down below.
So it looks like the correction is indeed coming to an end. It's still not confirmed but the high volume move on Friday, along with closing higher for the first time in 5 trading sessions is a very good sign for the market. I actually took a long, diversified position the moment I saw 7300 break with good volume and made a nice 0.5% in the last hour of trading.
What happened was that the 5-Day MA actually held the market up, and this little channel that formed could have been the "Time" Correction that the market needed. As we know there are such things as time corrections and price corrections, so this channel may have just been what we needed to advance to the ATH's.
We still need to be cautious though and I'm setting my stop-losses pretty tight because the SPY still needs to break a resistance point and we actually need to close above the recent resistance points set by previous trading days.
If we could open Monday green with good volume, don't be shocked to see the second leg here carry on towards 7500, a very nice 2% plus in just the index, not even individual stock picks. If we open Monday down, doesn't quite mean we're done going up. just could be the retraction needed to continue the momentum upward.
My most liberal stop-loss is still 7200, if that point fails, we're in trouble, However, I like to trade on margin with a very diversified portfolio to help increase gains while lowering my co-variance, so I'm personally gonna set a stricter stop loss of around 7283 or so, then continue to wait on the sidelines until the market makes clear what it wants to do. If the market continues upward on Monday, I'll probably make a whole new post than continue this one since it would call for a new setup.
Any questions, feel free to leave them down below.
Comment:
Another Day, another gain. The correction does seem to be over. It's never officially over till we get past the ATH, but looks like we're going to test 7500 here soon. I'm probably going to sell my portfolio at 7500 and take a short position (very temporarily) to make some quick money, then probably go long. I don't think the NASDAQ will retract all the way to 7300 (though it could), but either way I'm going to swing trade this.
Was up 3.5% today in my portfolio, even with diversification throughout. Good day, excited for tomorrow
Was up 3.5% today in my portfolio, even with diversification throughout. Good day, excited for tomorrow
Comment:
I'd like to see something like this here, if we could see this, it should give the RSI Time to rest before the breakout, maximizing profit potential on the break upwards.
Remember, I'm shit at drawing, so don't expect these arrow's to be spot on timing wise, I have no idea the timing this will take haha
I'd like to see something like this here, if we could see this, it should give the RSI Time to rest before the breakout, maximizing profit potential on the break upwards.
Remember, I'm shit at drawing, so don't expect these arrow's to be spot on timing wise, I have no idea the timing this will take haha
Comment:
Here is a cup and handle basically showing what looks like is gonna happen. I don't expect the market to hit 7400 twice (But it could), i'd like to see support from 7400, then support from 7450, then a bounce upward.
Here is a cup and handle basically showing what looks like is gonna happen. I don't expect the market to hit 7400 twice (But it could), i'd like to see support from 7400, then support from 7450, then a bounce upward.
Comment:
So hopefully you guys have some stop-losses that triggered! Overslept today so mine triggered before I was even up. We have a couple interesting moves with the market
Looks like the goal was to test 7300 which like I said, although unlikely, very possible. We are having lower highs, see a little resistance line has formed. closed below the 200 MA for the 5 minute timeframe. The scary thing was the strong move downward with extremely high volume.
All depends on tomorrow, if we don't have an up day, we're in trouble. We need to close above the 5 minute ichimoku cloud to have a chance, the fact we broke support is really offputing.
I'll probably have more to say about this tomorrow, just relaxing in all cash. Planned on taking a short position but I ran out of day trades so we'll see if that cash gets spent here soon!
Looks like the goal was to test 7300 which like I said, although unlikely, very possible. We are having lower highs, see a little resistance line has formed. closed below the 200 MA for the 5 minute timeframe. The scary thing was the strong move downward with extremely high volume.
All depends on tomorrow, if we don't have an up day, we're in trouble. We need to close above the 5 minute ichimoku cloud to have a chance, the fact we broke support is really offputing.
I'll probably have more to say about this tomorrow, just relaxing in all cash. Planned on taking a short position but I ran out of day trades so we'll see if that cash gets spent here soon!
Comment:
Hey guys, be very careful here, SPY is calling for an 8% drop from here
Hey guys, be very careful here, SPY is calling for an 8% drop from here
Comment:
Here's a reference for when to resume a short position for you guys
Here's a reference for when to resume a short position for you guys
If Nasdaq pushes it's way past 7300, we're in some really good looking territory.
If it falls below 7200, it's looking like we're in some trouble here, I'd consider lowering my exposure.
Make sure to keep an eye on it guys.