4 hours chart

Lets start with what I got right. Non-farm payrolls was a miss and unemployment ticked up to 5% and as a result of this poor data, yes we gapped up at the open. I was saying between $1 and 1.50 and it was $1.21. But then down she went. So what went wrong? Yes its manipulation. Just about any other time of the year when we get numbers like this, this should have skyrocketed. Not a damn thing we can do about it except wait it out and look ahead. I looked up what happened on June 3rd to create such a huge run in Gold             and Jnug             . It was bad non-farm job numbers. And look at how it ran.

So I am looking ahead to Monday of course. But mainly because I am kind of curious and excited to see what China does after having to watch gold             get artificially pushed down soooo much. Yes I still think this goes up but I don’t want to get anyone’s hopes up too much, So I will not try to call a top. I still think we are in the black broken line channel for now. Hopefully we trade back to the top of it before turning back down. If we get close to that, I for one am selling Jnug             and buying Dust.

If you are able to check out the volume , you will see that volume was huge. This is a very good sign. I feel like with a suppressed price movement and a huge volume spike, that the catapult has been pulled back as far as it can go, all we need is someone to release the pin. Maybe China.

So as you can see from my chart, I am thinking maybe 1 ½ to 2 weeks more for Jnug             before it turns down again. Left translated means this could go down lower, but I am not sure it is ready to break that neck line, if in fact this is going to be a H&S pattern. SO if it does go lower, then the H&S if probably off the table.
If anyone has any info that could be helpful then please feel free to add it. I am curious to hear what that “chartfreak” guy has to say from here on out.
Comment: Im not an Elliot Wave expert by any measure, but I thought this was interesting.
Tell me where I went wrong.
Comment: SO I guess I was wrong. There has to be a three (or ABC) count corrective phase after a bullish 1 - 5 phase. So I added it in this next one.
This is just food for thought.
Comment: So I was asked why I think jnug and gold will churn somewhat sideways, and then turn down the way I have it. So Ill explain. We have or are about to complete a large ICL correction. Typically, the next step is upward. This correction is also in perfect harmony with an ABC correction to the 1-5 Impulse. Analysts are all pointing to new highs now. But, I think we are going sideways to slightly up in early December because of the now very heavy weight of the Fed rate hike. Just like what happened in August through September. We also have the problem with the dollar being propped up because of the Pound, Euro, and Yen. While I look forward to the pop that we are about to get, I am now so sure as to how high it goes. If this pop is huge and blows through the Channels then yes, we may be on our way to new highs. Also, I like to use Option Volume data as a weak guide along with cycles. That data changes. Usually the changes are very minimal like was the case through the 1st third of September and August. When crazy stuff happens then all types of analysis goes right out the window. Lastly, I use, but don't usually post it, Elliot Wave analysis. I am not very good at it and I don't like Fractals so I try to keep it simple and broad. But I added it in this chart because it seems to make perfect sense. Predicting the future is a whole other story. With commodities, the Elliot wave rules are slightly different. Where Wave 3 is usually the longest, with commodities, that does not have to be the case. Wave 5 could be the biggest wave. So those are a few more of my thoughts that I came up with while reading other peoples takes. I am still not sold on this being the start of a huge push up, YET. So the next two to three weeks will be very telling.

If Gold breaks down to find support at and bounces off $1,237 area as some suggest, JNUG might want to close the gap between 7.86 and 8.10 (in-between the two thin red lines on the daily chart below)

SalN VirtualFax
I hope not yet. I was thinking a spike first to top of channel then down again. If it got that low though that would nullify any possible h&s
I have the same hope as you do. I'm just trying to think of any possible worst case scenario. I just updated my Bullish'it post for my trading plan today.
Another great article from the guy dubbed whistleblower of the recent gold sell off.
Matce SalN
I'm VERY confident it goes up sharply... I just transfered some more $$ into trading-acct.. hopefully I get this in Monday early at a reasonable price again :)
All in all not a bad day yesterday... was able to sell on the spike, switch to JDST, ride it down and get in on JNUG low again :)
So you anticipate 19.63 as top!?
I lived in Shanghai for years, so Monday WILL be an UP - a HUGE up. "Knowing" Chinese they will demonstrate power and push gold up tremendously... they will show the US not to screw around when they are on holiday... Somebody dropped $2 billion - Chinese will probably see that as a challenge. Their magic number is 8 - so where can we go with $8 billion?
SalN Matce
I love this comment. Being that I only know China from what I read, I really appreciate the insight from you. Yes I have the same feeling it will be a big move but I don't want to say it because of how much BS manipulation has occurred this last week. For this week I could see a spike into the $16 - 17 range but then a small day or two pause/minor pullback to see how the retail sales data pans out. I suspect a close miss and then a harder spike possibly up to close to the top of the broken black line by the 18th or 19th. At that point I am selling Jnug because I think this is left translated so down we go. So wishful thinking gets us up into $21 range. Some analysts think that the first move out of a ICL should move even higher. Ehhhh. Ummmm. That would be nice. Just seems a little bit much even for Jnug.
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