AMEX:JNUG   DIREXION DAILY JUNIOR GOLD MINERS INDEX BULL 3X SHARES
2 months ago
So I am going to start off with the Daily chart . Then I will post another chart on a 2 hour time frame.
The Daily chart is so we can zoom out to look at the bigger picture and moving averages , ect…
Remember, market analysis is all about trying to predict the most probable price movement to guide us in making better trades. I was at almost 100% for Gold             until this last two weeks. But I am holding for now. Might still be a small profit in the end.

So the question going into the weekend is whether or not this is a base forming before we go up or a bear flag with one more small drop ahead. The answer, I haven’t a clue. I do know that this is a great buy even if it drops a little bit more. Why? Because if you look at the 50 day moving average (blue) and the 100 DMA (Red), on this daily chart , and understand that reversion to the mean is one of the strongest market factors, then we are probably going to shoot up just past the 50 and I would guess hit the 100 before turning back down. That should take us up to mid $20 range by, I would say, the 19th or 20th. That appears to be the best case scenario that I see and most probable. Can Jnug             make such a move in the time frame? Yes. Jnug             , once it gets rolling, usually can move 10% to 15% per day average range. So lets say it only does 10% Average per day for the next 5 trading days. That would work out to bringing us up to $16.66 by next Friday. And if we add just two more days the following week, that would bring us to $20.17. So pretty close to what my chart was showing. I thought that was interesting and encouraging. If this is the start of a new move/wave up, then we should have a micro 5 wave push in this bigger move which you can see on my 2 hours chart that I will be posting. If you look at the 2 hour chart, it appears that we may have put in our micro wave 1 and are completing or are about to complete a micro wave 2. If I am correct then a bigger wave 3 should be up next. Next week will answer that question. Not to mention we should be starting the next short term cycle which is up of course. Lets also not forget about how oversold we have been on all of the indicators.

Another thing to keep in mind is a little bit of Gold             history. Back in 2002             , we had a similar run in Gold             and about the same time, we had an even deeper drop. What followed was a pop that brought price right back up to where it was in September, and then another drop. Back in 2006, Gold             dropped in September and was almost where we are today as far as percentage of price drop, and recovered about half of that before another little drop and pop. In both of these cases, Gold             eventually dropped lower towards the end of the year, or beginning of the following year before pushing much higher. I, once again thought that was interesting and encouraging as that is what my chart has been showing.

2 hours chart below
2 months ago
Comment:
snapshot

Another thing I was looking at and taking into consideration was that we just came down from a multi year bear gold market. Where is the larger ABC correction? Could it be that we just completed the A in August and are currently in the B wave? Or maybe we just completed a larger wave 1 and are working on or completing wave 2? (zoom out on the daily to see the larger numbers). If we are in fact in a large corrective pattern, then are we in a normal zig zag, a flat, or running flat? So many questions that nobody has the answer to but is good to consider.

Options open interest has let me down for the last two weeks. As the week progressed, the OI price target kept coming down. It wasn’t always that way though as I have stated in earlier posts. The current price target is $17.30 but I am anticipating that to drop to $17 buy next Friday. I am really hoping that we get back on track with that this week. That being said, the OI shows another sideways wedge through November similar to the one we had in September. It seems to make sense being that we will be getting closer to a possible and probable rate hike which should suppress the price of Gold. OH! And by the way, I changed my mind on the rate hike. Earlier I said I thought that a rate hike would not happen until Feb 1st. But now I am 99% sure it will happen in December. I studied miners price action from the last rate hike in December 2015. Miners moved sideways to down lower over the course of 1 month 3 days. And guess what, that was perfect correlation with the drop in the S&P 500. There is a correlation with the market and miners. It just has not been that good this last two weeks but usually is pretty close. I think that the same thing will happen with jnug this time but after that approximate 1 month 3 days, I think we get a small pop and then another drop. Why? Because we would be due for the ICL cycle to complete a bottom and that should bring Gold and miners down further. There is also an expected 2nd drop in the S&P 500 at about that time just like last time there was a rate hike. Hope you guys are still with me on all of this. If I forgot something, I will update over the weekend.

I will also post my S&P 500 chart to show what I think is happening in that market. It is interesting. Hope you like it. I will probably buy into the Vix end of November to play that huge drop in the market.

Assuming this pans out, I am Bullish Gold and jnug for the next week and a half and then would probably be buying into Dust for a couple weeks.
2 months ago
Comment: Chart for the Dollar
snapshot

Not sure if we are finished going up yet. Maybe another day or so but maybe it is finished. But it seems as if we are very close to the Dollar making a correction lower.
2 months ago
Comment: Just wanted to state that there is a possibility that we make one last very small move down for Jnug. But it is still a very good buy now.
2 months ago
Comment: Well Fischer just spoke. He is usually very hawkish. This is about the most dovish we will hear from him. Expressing concerns about the all around economy and world economy. They will still raise rates, they will just talk more dovishly on the run up to help propel the market higher.
2 months ago
Comment:
snapshot

trying to breakout of this little wedge. BBands are narrow on the smaller time frames. and getting smaller on the Daily.
a month ago
Comment:
snapshot

2 hour chart above

If we get a 3rd gap up today, AND it does not fill today, then I am defiantly selling at todays highest point. Three gap up in a row is very bearish short term. Real short term like one or two days. I would expect the third gap at least, or maybe even the 2nd (a little too far) to be filled before resuming the last wave up. Just keep that in mind folks. Lets see what happens today.
Matce
2 months ago
As always, very solid idea here!
I would agree that we will see 20's relatively shortly ... maybe as early as next week. I don't think we are going much lower because a) we have solid support at 9.5 b) XAUUSD has solid support at 1250 and c) DXY is topped out at 98.1 it seems. Those 3 factors, I believe, will keep us above the 9.5USD line. Also I noticed there seems to be a shift in sensitivity of correlation between XAUUSD and JNUG - we now need MUCH lesser movement of XAUUSD, to create a spike w JNUG. Also the levels are very relative to each other... while previously a spike from 1260 to 1265 resulted in JNUG from 10.5 to 11 - now a spike from 1250 to 1255 results in 10.5 to 11 (numbers are "made up" o visualize!).

If you look at the charts:
JNUG had its lowest point (9.5USD) on Oct 06 around 11am, XAUUSD was 1251USD
We NOW have 10.35USD, while XAUUSD sits at 1250.3USD

Basically we won't need XAUUSD at 1300 to get our JNUG to 20 - which is a very good sign!

Lastly I don't think an interest rite hike is coming - Yellen hinted at an "let's observe" period.
Reply
SalN Matce
2 months ago
I did notice that Jnug was holding up and starting to go up a little on those days in relation to Gold. Yes I was thinking the same thing. But I did not want to seem to overly optimistic.

I will post my Chart for S&P 500 later, maybe Saturday afternoon as I have to work this morning and do not have time. I probably should not having said 99% sure. But I do feel it is very likely especially the way she just spoke. I'll explain my thoughts later.

Thanks for the comments
Reply
ice_holly01 SalN
2 months ago
Awesome analysis!!
Reply
VirtualFax
2 months ago
I gave you a thumb up on the weekend but didn't really have time until today (you know, people have more spare time during the week while at work than on the weekends while at home: ) to fully read and appreciate your analysis. Thank you.

I also expect another drop below $10 and I even sold today a portion of my holding which I purchased at 10.47 in PM on Fri as I think I'd may have a better buying opportunity today or tomorrow maybe even around 9.60-ish again if the price continues to oscillate in this channel between 9.60 and 12.00 (as shown below) over the next 24 to 36 hours.

But, regardless, thanks again for the effort of sharing your thoughts in writing; I'm your loyal follower ; )

snapshot


Reply
Matce VirtualFax
2 months ago
I think the days of buying at 9's or 10's are done after this run... but should be a low 11 coming up tomorrow.. maybe a gapped down opening?
I went out at 12.2 (from 10.5) and switched to JDST for the ride down :)
Reply
VirtualFax Matce
2 months ago
You are right - she broke out of the channel so I agree. I still have my core position since 9.63 and I'm planning to ride it to the top as I'm not a day trader
Reply
SalN VirtualFax
2 months ago
It's about damn time it moved And it close strong so it should rally for several days.
Reply
VirtualFax SalN
2 months ago
Looking forward to it for all of us on this post to make some extra pocket cash : )
Reply
VirtualFax Matce
2 months ago
BTW, where do you see the low 11 could come from. I honestly can't build the case for it other than potentially closing morning's gap. But it doesn't have to close this time around and might wait until this swing to high teens or higher is over. Mind hinting what am I missing?
Reply
SalN VirtualFax
2 months ago
I never said that the other guy did I don't think that gap will fill until sometime mid November
Reply
VirtualFax SalN
2 months ago
Did you get a notification when I posted my last comment? If so - apologies, I thought I posing the question to Matce...
Reply
SalN VirtualFax
2 months ago
Oh sorry I think it just goes to everybody so I thought you were talking to me since you did not name him
Reply
VirtualFax SalN
2 months ago
No worries. I guess are all one big (well, in fact, pretty small) JNUG family here ; )
Reply
Matce VirtualFax
a month ago
I don't think the gap will fill - we would need to reach high 10's then... but our ascend is VERY steep... 15%/1day - that is difficult to maintain. I think we'll bounce off some Fibonacci's when people take profit... I'm eying ~12.8-13.0 - then down to possible mid 11's followed by rally up to 15-16
We're definitely in a rock-solid uptrend now, but 10's to 20s in one shot is not going to happen :)
Reply
ice_holly01
2 months ago
Nice analysis. Always!
Reply
VirtualFax
a month ago
Even if JNUG gaps up in the morning I don't think we would leave a third unfilled gap by the end of today (unless there is a major $5+ move in gold before the trading session opens, which is not very likely at this point).

However, a good point about three gaps being bearish S/T. Will you remain happy (=bullish) with two though? : )
Reply
VirtualFax
a month ago
Is she thinking about closing yesterday's gap today?
Reply
VirtualFax VirtualFax
a month ago
Engulfed...
Reply
SalN VirtualFax
a month ago
Yeah kind of bummed it happened earlier that I liked Looks like this will be an early micro wave 4. I am still hoping to go up until Tuesday at least
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out