So I am going to start off with the Daily chart . Then I will post another chart on a 2 hour time frame.
The Daily chart is so we can zoom out to look at the bigger picture and moving averages, ect…
Remember, market analysis is all about trying to predict the most probable price movement to guide us in making better trades. I was at almost 100% for Gold             until this last two weeks. But I am holding for now. Might still be a small profit in the end.

So the question going into the weekend is whether or not this is a base forming before we go up or a bear flag with one more small drop ahead. The answer, I haven’t a clue. I do know that this is a great buy even if it drops a little bit more. Why? Because if you look at the 50 day moving average (blue) and the 100 DMA (Red), on this daily chart , and understand that reversion to the mean is one of the strongest market factors, then we are probably going to shoot up just past the 50 and I would guess hit the 100 before turning back down. That should take us up to mid $20 range by, I would say, the 19th or 20th. That appears to be the best case scenario that I see and most probable. Can Jnug             make such a move in the time frame? Yes. Jnug             , once it gets rolling, usually can move 10% to 15% per day average range. So lets say it only does 10% Average per day for the next 5 trading days. That would work out to bringing us up to $16.66 by next Friday. And if we add just two more days the following week, that would bring us to $20.17. So pretty close to what my chart was showing. I thought that was interesting and encouraging. If this is the start of a new move/wave up, then we should have a micro 5 wave push in this bigger move which you can see on my 2 hours chart that I will be posting. If you look at the 2 hour chart, it appears that we may have put in our micro wave 1 and are completing or are about to complete a micro wave 2. If I am correct then a bigger wave 3 should be up next. Next week will answer that question. Not to mention we should be starting the next short term cycle which is up of course. Lets also not forget about how oversold we have been on all of the indicators.

Another thing to keep in mind is a little bit of Gold             history. Back in 2002, we had a similar run in Gold             and about the same time, we had an even deeper drop. What followed was a pop that brought price right back up to where it was in September, and then another drop. Back in 2006, Gold             dropped in September and was almost where we are today as far as percentage of price drop, and recovered about half of that before another little drop and pop. In both of these cases, Gold             eventually dropped lower towards the end of the year, or beginning of the following year before pushing much higher. I, once again thought that was interesting and encouraging as that is what my chart has been showing.

2 hours chart below
Another thing I was looking at and taking into consideration was that we just came down from a multi year bear gold market. Where is the larger ABC correction? Could it be that we just completed the A in August and are currently in the B wave? Or maybe we just completed a larger wave 1 and are working on or completing wave 2? (zoom out on the daily to see the larger numbers). If we are in fact in a large corrective pattern, then are we in a normal zig zag, a flat, or running flat? So many questions that nobody has the answer to but is good to consider.

Options open interest has let me down for the last two weeks. As the week progressed, the OI price target kept coming down. It wasn’t always that way though as I have stated in earlier posts. The current price target is $17.30 but I am anticipating that to drop to $17 buy next Friday. I am really hoping that we get back on track with that this week. That being said, the OI shows another sideways wedge through November similar to the one we had in September. It seems to make sense being that we will be getting closer to a possible and probable rate hike which should suppress the price of Gold. OH! And by the way, I changed my mind on the rate hike. Earlier I said I thought that a rate hike would not happen until Feb 1st. But now I am 99% sure it will happen in December. I studied miners price action from the last rate hike in December 2015. Miners moved sideways to down lower over the course of 1 month 3 days. And guess what, that was perfect correlation with the drop in the S&P 500. There is a correlation with the market and miners. It just has not been that good this last two weeks but usually is pretty close. I think that the same thing will happen with jnug this time but after that approximate 1 month 3 days, I think we get a small pop and then another drop. Why? Because we would be due for the ICL cycle to complete a bottom and that should bring Gold and miners down further. There is also an expected 2nd drop in the S&P 500 at about that time just like last time there was a rate hike. Hope you guys are still with me on all of this. If I forgot something, I will update over the weekend.

I will also post my S&P 500 chart to show what I think is happening in that market. It is interesting. Hope you like it. I will probably buy into the Vix end of November to play that huge drop in the market.

Assuming this pans out, I am Bullish Gold and jnug for the next week and a half and then would probably be buying into Dust for a couple weeks.
Comment: Chart for the Dollar

Not sure if we are finished going up yet. Maybe another day or so but maybe it is finished. But it seems as if we are very close to the Dollar making a correction lower.
Comment: Just wanted to state that there is a possibility that we make one last very small move down for Jnug. But it is still a very good buy now.
Comment: Well Fischer just spoke. He is usually very hawkish. This is about the most dovish we will hear from him. Expressing concerns about the all around economy and world economy. They will still raise rates, they will just talk more dovishly on the run up to help propel the market higher.
trying to breakout of this little wedge. BBands are narrow on the smaller time frames. and getting smaller on the Daily.
2 hour chart above

If we get a 3rd gap up today, AND it does not fill today, then I am defiantly selling at todays highest point. Three gap up in a row is very bearish short term. Real short term like one or two days. I would expect the third gap at least, or maybe even the 2nd (a little too far) to be filled before resuming the last wave up. Just keep that in mind folks. Lets see what happens today.
Is she thinking about closing yesterday's gap today?
VirtualFax VirtualFax
SalN VirtualFax
Yeah kind of bummed it happened earlier that I liked Looks like this will be an early micro wave 4. I am still hoping to go up until Tuesday at least
Even if JNUG gaps up in the morning I don't think we would leave a third unfilled gap by the end of today (unless there is a major $5+ move in gold before the trading session opens, which is not very likely at this point).

However, a good point about three gaps being bearish S/T. Will you remain happy (=bullish) with two though? : )
Nice analysis. Always!
I gave you a thumb up on the weekend but didn't really have time until today (you know, people have more spare time during the week while at work than on the weekends while at home: ) to fully read and appreciate your analysis. Thank you.

I also expect another drop below $10 and I even sold today a portion of my holding which I purchased at 10.47 in PM on Fri as I think I'd may have a better buying opportunity today or tomorrow maybe even around 9.60-ish again if the price continues to oscillate in this channel between 9.60 and 12.00 (as shown below) over the next 24 to 36 hours.

But, regardless, thanks again for the effort of sharing your thoughts in writing; I'm your loyal follower ; )

Matce VirtualFax
I think the days of buying at 9's or 10's are done after this run... but should be a low 11 coming up tomorrow.. maybe a gapped down opening?
I went out at 12.2 (from 10.5) and switched to JDST for the ride down :)
You are right - she broke out of the channel so I agree. I still have my core position since 9.63 and I'm planning to ride it to the top as I'm not a day trader
SalN VirtualFax
It's about damn time it moved And it close strong so it should rally for several days.
Looking forward to it for all of us on this post to make some extra pocket cash : )
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out