Jnug to Gold October 2016
So I am going to start off with the Daily chart. Then I will post another chart on a 2 hour time frame.
The Daily chart is so we can zoom out to look at the bigger picture and moving averages, ect…
Remember, market analysis is all about trying to predict the most probable price movement to guide us in making better trades. I was at almost 100% for Gold until this last two weeks. But I am holding for now. Might still be a small profit in the end.
So the question going into the weekend is whether or not this is a base forming before we go up or a bear flag with one more small drop ahead. The answer, I haven’t a clue. I do know that this is a great buy even if it drops a little bit more. Why? Because if you look at the 50 day moving average (blue) and the 100 DMA (Red), on this daily chart, and understand that reversion to the mean is one of the strongest market factors, then we are probably going to shoot up just past the 50 and I would guess hit the 100 before turning back down. That should take us up to mid $20 range by, I would say, the 19th or 20th. That appears to be the best case scenario that I see and most probable. Can Jnug make such a move in the time frame? Yes. Jnug, once it gets rolling, usually can move 10% to 15% per day average range. So lets say it only does 10% Average per day for the next 5 trading days. That would work out to bringing us up to $16.66 by next Friday. And if we add just two more days the following week, that would bring us to $20.17. So pretty close to what my chart was showing. I thought that was interesting and encouraging. If this is the start of a new move/wave up, then we should have a micro 5 wave push in this bigger move which you can see on my 2 hours chart that I will be posting. If you look at the 2 hour chart, it appears that we may have put in our micro wave 1 and are completing or are about to complete a micro wave 2. If I am correct then a bigger wave 3 should be up next. Next week will answer that question. Not to mention we should be starting the next short term cycle which is up of course. Lets also not forget about how oversold we have been on all of the indicators.
Another thing to keep in mind is a little bit of Gold history. Back in 2002, we had a similar run in Gold and about the same time, we had an even deeper drop. What followed was a pop that brought price right back up to where it was in September, and then another drop. Back in 2006, Gold dropped in September and was almost where we are today as far as percentage of price drop, and recovered about half of that before another little drop and pop. In both of these cases, Gold eventually dropped lower towards the end of the year, or beginning of the following year before pushing much higher. I, once again thought that was interesting and encouraging as that is what my chart has been showing.
2 hours chart below
The Daily chart is so we can zoom out to look at the bigger picture and moving averages, ect…
Remember, market analysis is all about trying to predict the most probable price movement to guide us in making better trades. I was at almost 100% for Gold until this last two weeks. But I am holding for now. Might still be a small profit in the end.
So the question going into the weekend is whether or not this is a base forming before we go up or a bear flag with one more small drop ahead. The answer, I haven’t a clue. I do know that this is a great buy even if it drops a little bit more. Why? Because if you look at the 50 day moving average (blue) and the 100 DMA (Red), on this daily chart, and understand that reversion to the mean is one of the strongest market factors, then we are probably going to shoot up just past the 50 and I would guess hit the 100 before turning back down. That should take us up to mid $20 range by, I would say, the 19th or 20th. That appears to be the best case scenario that I see and most probable. Can Jnug make such a move in the time frame? Yes. Jnug, once it gets rolling, usually can move 10% to 15% per day average range. So lets say it only does 10% Average per day for the next 5 trading days. That would work out to bringing us up to $16.66 by next Friday. And if we add just two more days the following week, that would bring us to $20.17. So pretty close to what my chart was showing. I thought that was interesting and encouraging. If this is the start of a new move/wave up, then we should have a micro 5 wave push in this bigger move which you can see on my 2 hours chart that I will be posting. If you look at the 2 hour chart, it appears that we may have put in our micro wave 1 and are completing or are about to complete a micro wave 2. If I am correct then a bigger wave 3 should be up next. Next week will answer that question. Not to mention we should be starting the next short term cycle which is up of course. Lets also not forget about how oversold we have been on all of the indicators.
Another thing to keep in mind is a little bit of Gold history. Back in 2002, we had a similar run in Gold and about the same time, we had an even deeper drop. What followed was a pop that brought price right back up to where it was in September, and then another drop. Back in 2006, Gold dropped in September and was almost where we are today as far as percentage of price drop, and recovered about half of that before another little drop and pop. In both of these cases, Gold eventually dropped lower towards the end of the year, or beginning of the following year before pushing much higher. I, once again thought that was interesting and encouraging as that is what my chart has been showing.
2 hours chart below
Comment:
Chart for the Dollar
Not sure if we are finished going up yet. Maybe another day or so but maybe it is finished. But it seems as if we are very close to the Dollar making a correction lower.
Comment:
Just wanted to state that there is a possibility that we make one last very small move down for Jnug. But it is still a very good buy now.
Comment:
Well Fischer just spoke. He is usually very hawkish. This is about the most dovish we will hear from him. Expressing concerns about the all around economy and world economy. They will still raise rates, they will just talk more dovishly on the run up to help propel the market higher.
Comment:
trying to breakout of this little wedge. BBands are narrow on the smaller time frames. and getting smaller on the Daily.
Comment:
2 hour chart above
If we get a 3rd gap up today, AND it does not fill today, then I am defiantly selling at todays highest point. Three gap up in a row is very bearish short term. Real short term like one or two days. I would expect the third gap at least, or maybe even the 2nd (a little too far) to be filled before resuming the last wave up. Just keep that in mind folks. Lets see what happens today.
If we get a 3rd gap up today, AND it does not fill today, then I am defiantly selling at todays highest point. Three gap up in a row is very bearish short term. Real short term like one or two days. I would expect the third gap at least, or maybe even the 2nd (a little too far) to be filled before resuming the last wave up. Just keep that in mind folks. Lets see what happens today.
Options open interest has let me down for the last two weeks. As the week progressed, the OI price target kept coming down. It wasn’t always that way though as I have stated in earlier posts. The current price target is $17.30 but I am anticipating that to drop to $17 buy next Friday. I am really hoping that we get back on track with that this week. That being said, the OI shows another sideways wedge through November similar to the one we had in September. It seems to make sense being that we will be getting closer to a possible and probable rate hike which should suppress the price of Gold. OH! And by the way, I changed my mind on the rate hike. Earlier I said I thought that a rate hike would not happen until Feb 1st. But now I am 99% sure it will happen in December. I studied miners price action from the last rate hike in December 2015. Miners moved sideways to down lower over the course of 1 month 3 days. And guess what, that was perfect correlation with the drop in the S&P 500. There is a correlation with the market and miners. It just has not been that good this last two weeks but usually is pretty close. I think that the same thing will happen with jnug this time but after that approximate 1 month 3 days, I think we get a small pop and then another drop. Why? Because we would be due for the ICL cycle to complete a bottom and that should bring Gold and miners down further. There is also an expected 2nd drop in the S&P 500 at about that time just like last time there was a rate hike. Hope you guys are still with me on all of this. If I forgot something, I will update over the weekend.
I will also post my S&P 500 chart to show what I think is happening in that market. It is interesting. Hope you like it. I will probably buy into the Vix end of November to play that huge drop in the market.
Assuming this pans out, I am Bullish Gold and jnug for the next week and a half and then would probably be buying into Dust for a couple weeks.