Jnug to Gold "Difficult Read ahead"

I have had a difficult time figuring out what to discuss. NOTE** None of what I say below will matter if there is a war with North Korea in the next week because gold will shoot through the roof. But I have a feeling that Trump worked out a deal with China and dough boy will back down. That being said, I do believe that the cycle for Jnug has shifted....but trying to guess when it bottoms and starts new is a guess. So I will go for it. With the huge gap down yesterday and the strong close below both the 10 and 20 DMA, I would suspect that more down side is ahead for Monday and Tuesday. attention has to be given to the gap we just made. But if we continue down, AND touch the trend line, I would probably call that the cycle end for Jnug. I have already shifted the cycle indicators at the bottom to reflect this theory and moved the pink vertical line over as well. As you can see, I left the shaded green area in its original place as a reference of the old cycle end area. As you can also see, I do not expect a big pop in Jnug. The BBands are closing tighter and tighter and I think it will continue for a little while longer. So I expect more chop for a couple more weeks. Part of the reason I am leaning this way is that, .....I really do not think spot gold is going to break out of that long term downtrend line. (I will post the gold chart later). Not to mention, gold is starting to get to that point in time when it too should start cycling down. Not just for a daily cycle low but also for an Intermediate cycle low. An estimation for spot gold to bottom on its ICL is late May to Early June. Which means that it usually starts to turn down approximately 1 month ahead of that date. So I think that spot gold will reach the top of the downtrend line next week and then move down to sideways, just underneath it (which everyone will call a bull flag). Is it a bull flag? Well it will look like one but no one will be paying attention to the cycles. Not all bull flags play out. SO I am estimating that we start to drop with gold around the May 8th date. That is also about the time that the 50 DMA should be crossing down across the 100 DMA for Jnug. (which is also a very narrow point in the wedge). If spot gold does start to tank for its ICL, then it should drag Jnug down with it. That is the reason I have the arrows on the Jnug chart moving down in May. And of course, lets not forget the short, medium and longer term hidden bearish divergences on the RSI 5. I think that should be respected, a lot. The short term bullish divergence played out last week and there could be another medium one that forms if Jnug falls further and stops at the trend line. I extended the bullish divergence line to give you an idea.

Ill post my gold chart next.

Comment:

Gold Chart

So I put a wave count up to show you what I think we have going on. But like I said earlier, if war happens, then this shit is going to fly.
As you can see, we are about half way in this daily cycle for gold. and almost at the 4.5 months ICL period. obviously we are too close to that zone for that to apply. 6.25 months is the long end of an ICL which we completed last time. I am estimating that this ICL will run 5.5 months long and end in late May to early June. Seasonally speaking, this works out well for gold. Setting up a small pop into June. There is also a bearish divergence on the RSI 5 for gold. As you can see, RSI was at the same level as it is now back in January 17th when gold was at $1215. That's a long term divergence. Hinting at a big ICL drop? Only if things cool down internationally.

We shall see how this plays out. But no one is calling for gold to fall from here on out. Everyone is very bullish and pointing to gold breaking out due to war. Lets see what happens. I am kind of trying to use my chart and the cycles to predict the world events. IF I am wrong and we do break out, I will change my perspective. GL

Comment:

Japanease Yen ready for lift off.

As you can see, the Yen appears to have put in a nearly perfect A=C move for a larger wave 4. This also leads me to believe that gold will not break out, and everything I said above will play out.

Comment:

I found two good articles that talks about the suspension issue for Jnug. My take is that for now, there is nothing really affecting our trading. But a watchful eye on something out of the ordinary is definitely called for. If anyone knows of any info that is important, please let us all know

www.etf.com/sec...o-big-its-index?nopaging=1...

www.zerohedge.com/ne...derlying-instruments

Comment:

So, I had a buy order in today for Jnug at 6.26. And wouldn't you know it....it stopped at 6.27. So I ended up settling for a buy at 6.42. Oh well.
I have been reading the comments. I like discussing this stuff. No matter what your opinion is, it is always good to share ideas. You never know what you might have missed. And here is my view. BBands are getting tighter and tighter, especially on the jdst chart. It appears to me that this last three days has been the typical consolidation after 5 waves up. And I do believe that today was the end of that consolidation for now. I obviously believe that Jnug goes up from here and here my reasons. 1st - through my research of breakouts when BBands squeeze like this, I have found that price usually breaks across the 20 dma for the breakout. (Not always but usually). So that would weigh towards an up move for Jnug. 2nd - there is also a bullish divergences that has formed. Let's not forget about tomorrow being the start of the new COT report. We pretty much reached the bottom of the wedge today and we should bounce. If this is the start of 5 waves up, then I'll have to wait to see wave one to make a call on a top. I know gold is near its top for this cycle but golds movements lately hasn't seemed to mean much. So let's see how this plays out. GL