BTC - Time For a Good SHORT.

It will be a huge analysis, so be ready to spend 4-6 minutes of your time to read this text. Let's start.

Firstly, let's consider the classic analysis. We can see that $BTC has just touched a triangle's resistance zone, which is a quite bearish signal. Second, let's pay attention to the fact that Bitcoin is still inside the ascending channels.

There are some chances that the price can possibly move to the zone of $4080 - $4100 zone (thin dotted line on the chart), I want to emphasize the word "possibly", because, at the current point, the priority of the price movement is downward, so a possible upward impulse can be considered as a good chance to enter a SHORT position at a higher price. Moreover, I advise you to pay attention to the oscillators, RSI and Stoch. RSI, they are completely overbought on all popular time-frames until 12H.

Now let's take a look at events that are quite difficult to track using classic TA.
To begin with, I want to remind you about the results of the last CME Futures Report, where we found the following SHORT/LONG ratio: 1460/2528 (Huge Leveraged funds) and 272/1003 (Small non-reportable traders). This ratio tells us that the priority is downward, as the crowd believes in the growth.

The same results we have at the Bitfinex exchange:
LONGS: $98,299,100 (55.06%)
SHORTS: $80,241,257 (44.94%)

Bitmex:
LONGS: $262,066,609 (61.38%)
SHORTS: $ 164,921,829 (38.62%)

TOTAL:
LONGS: $360,365,709 (59.51%)
SHORTS: $245,163,086 (40.49%)

There are more smart traders on Bitfinex exchange because this exchange has a minimum amount for deposit of $10k, which explains the smaller spread. Unlike at the Bitmex exchange, where people mostly try to "feel" the direction of the next market movement by looking at a bare chart.

Now we can finally take a look at the most interesting thing! What have I marked with arrows and checkmarks on the chart?

1. Consider the first vertical column: Stoch RSI leaves the oversold zone during the flat, the price drops slightly. Good tight sale of MM!

2. Consider the second vertical column:
The stochastic leaves the oversold zone but leaves it little bit sharper and the price drops heavily. What happened? Looking at good volumes of small traders, "MM" sells 30-40% instead of the usual 20% (as in P1), which leads to the reaction of stops and liquidations. It could also be noticed on some websites that track liquidates.

To sum up, I'm sure that the $BTC should dump in the very near future. Our goal now is to open a good SHORT position. All reasons for a dump were described above.

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