Wrong-way earnings play on Kroger offers opportunity to buy
Kroger reported blow-out earnings and sales today, handily beating both the Wall Street and Estimize consensuses. The stock is moving down, however, perhaps because this quarter's earnings were a blip and next quarter's earnings are expected to be in a more normal range. I could see the stock selling off over the next month or so as the "Covid-19 bump" goes away.
However, some increased demand will remain over the next few quarters as consumers remain too scared to eat at restaurants. Next quarter's estimates are lower than the current quarter, but still quite a bit higher than 2019 YoY. Also, Kroger's increased cash flow this quarter will get reinvested into the business, leading to higher earnings in the future. Based on Zacks estimates of Kroger earnings for 2021, I estimate the stock's fair value at around $37 per share.
We've got a support around $31 per share today, but the reality is that we probably will break that support and continue downward toward the volume support at $28.50. And since it's the slow season, I wouldn't even be surprised to see Kroger hit secondary volume support at $25. I will be scaling in as the stock falls, because I think Kroger is an attractive, dividend-paying investment for a recessionary environment.
However, some increased demand will remain over the next few quarters as consumers remain too scared to eat at restaurants. Next quarter's estimates are lower than the current quarter, but still quite a bit higher than 2019 YoY. Also, Kroger's increased cash flow this quarter will get reinvested into the business, leading to higher earnings in the future. Based on Zacks estimates of Kroger earnings for 2021, I estimate the stock's fair value at around $37 per share.
We've got a support around $31 per share today, but the reality is that we probably will break that support and continue downward toward the volume support at $28.50. And since it's the slow season, I wouldn't even be surprised to see Kroger hit secondary volume support at $25. I will be scaling in as the stock falls, because I think Kroger is an attractive, dividend-paying investment for a recessionary environment.
Comment:
Well, I've only got a small position on Kroger since it only hit my first buy level, but it's been one of the better performers in my portfolio lately!