calmrat

LINK aiming to retest $23

COINBASE:LINKUSD   Chainlink
LINKUSD is currently trading around $22.70, up 5.5%, above average when compared to BTC and most of the altcoin market. We have now completed what appears to be a nicely formed W pattern on the 1h/2h/4h charts. Forming since yesterday, it confirmed earlier today as the European markets opened several hours ago after retesting the $22, which aligns perfectly with the lower market support band (20w ema low).

Our last major move was the rejection of the upper market resistance band at $28-$29 (FIB golden pocket & 20w ema high), followed by a failure to hold the the bull market bands (20w ema / 21w sma) as we came back for the retest. Let's look at the longer timeframes, measuring out probable direction using Fibonacci based Gann fanns.

Market makers appear to want to retest $23 today, which would get us back over the critical 50h ema. If rejected there, we know we're in for at least a second retest of the $22 levels, but more likely even lower since a failure there would indicate the current W pattern has failed so market makers want to bring the price lower.

If accepted and we push through $23 and hold through 2 or 3 4h candles, I believe we could see a continuation towards $24.50 - 25.50 range, for a retest of the bottom side of the bull market support bands about 10% higher from our current levels.


No matter, I expect a retest of the $23 before we know with a high level of confidence that the current movements are supporting a larger move to push back through the key moving averages and re-initiate a sustained multi-week trend to the upside (ending the multi-week trend to the downside). If we don't come back for a retest now, trade carefully, it's possible this push is nothing more than market makers working to get better prices for a short play they'll execute sometime over the weekend or early next week.


If we can continue to push higher, we might have a similar situation play out with the Bollinger Bands as we have seen in the past where once we touch the upper band, we continue to ride it closely, pushing it higher and higher for many consecutive (30+ days) before being squeezed back down.


Summary: Major areas of resistance within immediate reach are at $26.5 (VPVR volume peaks / interest) and $28 (FIB golden pocket), which we must overcome and turn into support before we can move higher. On the downside, $22 has acted as strong support for the past week, which aligns with both the major areas of interest (VPVR) and a key moving average (lower support band, mentioned before). If we come back for a third test at $22, there is a high probability the market continues to favor shorts.

A quick look at the Heikin-Ashi candles before I go... reminds us to not get too excited yet. We're still trending down... and the trend is our friend, until the end.

Don't get liquidated folks! Make sure you've set your stop losses and buy-limits!

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