LTC In Depth Week of 4/15/19: Fade from red back to black
Trader Noxtreme back with your weekly LTC in depth analysis. Please keep in mind that I am a full time trader but not a professional investment adviser so you should do your own research on this very risky market and then come share what you learn with us. My goal is to build a community of TA based traders so if you find these analyses helpful or if you just want to support the dream please LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE.
All that being said let’s get into LTC for the week for April 15th 2019.
Sentiment:
LTC In Depth: Will the Halving Cause LTC to Moon?
LTC has a ton of positive hype out there right now for all sorts of reasons right now. The main one that I see as relevant for LTC specifically is the block mining reward halving. This is a scheduled event not speculation and in the past there has been positive price correlation for BTC when this happened. This is currently set to happen August 6th of 2019. To me it would make sense that price would increase assuming demand stays constant. There are less coins being put into circulation and potentially less coins being sold into the open market by miners. We have just entered the Fiscal quarter before the quarter where the halving will take place. Based on the fact we have seen a 53% increase in LTC worth compared to BTC over the last 11 weeks I would argue that we are already seeing the gains associated with this event. The ATH LTC/BTC is .025 and we hit .018 on the third. So we are gaining more and loosing less then BTC in this coin. Not an opinion but a fact. This being said we have fallen back 20% from our April 3rd peak and we are trying to maintain support right on top of the range we broke out from. I believe this is a good indication that the market is not sure if this event should really cause LTC gain ground on the market as a whole or the hype surrounding this even is already priced in for the mot part. I would like to point out that we have a near perfect GIANT cup and handle pattern for the daily LTC/BTC chart for coinbase. Something like this is typically a bullish pattern and one this large would be major if it confirms.
LTC In Depth: History be my guide.
For my weekly I am going to stick with comparing our 2017 run start. History appears to rhyme here. We did finish red as I thought we would in my last analysis and now I see another red week (potentially one more after our current week) ahead. RSI is currently still highish on the weekly at 61. MacD, while bullish looks like it is ready take a breather on the center line. One thing is for sure; if we break 74.85 we will likely fall fast, at least temporarily because bears are looking at that level and there is probably a lot of stops to trigger there. We have our 12MA coming up to cross our 50 bullish but our 100 sitting right below $90 to act as resistance. Also those trend lines (yellow arrows) are copy pasted so you can see our drop is less extreme then what we saw in 17 as I thought it would be in my last analysis.
LTC In Depth: I don't think today is the day.
I am simplifying my charts a bit to make them more clear at a glance please let me know if I need to go more simple. What we see is a bull flag that tested the top of our previous bullish channel and it held. This is a solid bullish indication but the retrace off the top of that bull flag was a pretty brutal dip buy trade opportunity which I took. Currently we are sitting at one of two supports left before we fall back into our previous bullish channel. If we fall back into this channel we could see 65 again which would likely make the bears get pretty loud in the space BUT this would also get our daily and weekly RSI back down into potential buy zones so it is a win win if you are in cash. Where we sit currently is a price lower then we want to see for this to still be a bull flag, an RSI that is higher than average but neutral at 54, a bearish MacD cross and a current daily candle wick that has already broken the two supports keeping us from going back into our previous bullish channel. Odds are currently favoring a retest of levels in our old channel between 70-65 so entering bullish here is quite risky IMO unless you are going for a quick flip. Lets see what the 4 hr hold.
LTC In Depth 4hr: Bears are nipping at the bulls heals.
The 4 hr has me weary of the bear because they are nipping at our heals. The RSI sitting at 43 after bouncing off 30. We held our last resistance before going back into the channel (wicked below resistance to the channel boarder twice). MacD appears to be rejecting the bear cross but we need another candle or two to make the determination here. Like I said we have a very high risk entry opportunity here for bulls which I will not be taking unless the hourly is showing oversold and even then there is more risk than reward because there is more resistance then support in our close ranges. We also have the 12 and 26 MA to break through which I speculate will reject the current green candle based on the volume we are seeing. Not looking good here for the bulls but I would be opening shorts here if I could looking for the drop back into the channel.
LTC In Depth 1hr: Prove it bulls!
RSI at 41. If we are not able to hold our weak 77.59 support we will likely fall back into the channel. Bulls have to prove to us that they are still in control. I will be looking for an upper 60s entry for a bounce because it seems like the best short term trade and those could become solid long positions.
Conclusion
In the short term I will be looking for an oversold bounce play if we drop back into the channel and I will dump the two coins I have at break even if I get the opportunity. Stepping back we likely WILL need to break back into our previous bull channel to get our next weekly red candle but I am thinking we could see a LARGE bounce in this week since 74.85 will accelerate us down once we enter the previous bull channel. We could drop all the way to the upper 60s and then come back to the upper 70s which would be a nice long position moving into next week assuming we get our bounce and form a higher low in the channel. We have big price ranges right below our current price but limited upside. Looking for entry targets at 70.48, 69.60 (200 ma) and near the bottom of our previous channel.
All that being said let’s get into LTC for the week for April 15th 2019.
Sentiment:
LTC In Depth: Will the Halving Cause LTC to Moon?
LTC has a ton of positive hype out there right now for all sorts of reasons right now. The main one that I see as relevant for LTC specifically is the block mining reward halving. This is a scheduled event not speculation and in the past there has been positive price correlation for BTC when this happened. This is currently set to happen August 6th of 2019. To me it would make sense that price would increase assuming demand stays constant. There are less coins being put into circulation and potentially less coins being sold into the open market by miners. We have just entered the Fiscal quarter before the quarter where the halving will take place. Based on the fact we have seen a 53% increase in LTC worth compared to BTC over the last 11 weeks I would argue that we are already seeing the gains associated with this event. The ATH LTC/BTC is .025 and we hit .018 on the third. So we are gaining more and loosing less then BTC in this coin. Not an opinion but a fact. This being said we have fallen back 20% from our April 3rd peak and we are trying to maintain support right on top of the range we broke out from. I believe this is a good indication that the market is not sure if this event should really cause LTC gain ground on the market as a whole or the hype surrounding this even is already priced in for the mot part. I would like to point out that we have a near perfect GIANT cup and handle pattern for the daily LTC/BTC chart for coinbase. Something like this is typically a bullish pattern and one this large would be major if it confirms.
LTC In Depth: History be my guide.
For my weekly I am going to stick with comparing our 2017 run start. History appears to rhyme here. We did finish red as I thought we would in my last analysis and now I see another red week (potentially one more after our current week) ahead. RSI is currently still highish on the weekly at 61. MacD, while bullish looks like it is ready take a breather on the center line. One thing is for sure; if we break 74.85 we will likely fall fast, at least temporarily because bears are looking at that level and there is probably a lot of stops to trigger there. We have our 12MA coming up to cross our 50 bullish but our 100 sitting right below $90 to act as resistance. Also those trend lines (yellow arrows) are copy pasted so you can see our drop is less extreme then what we saw in 17 as I thought it would be in my last analysis.
LTC In Depth: I don't think today is the day.
I am simplifying my charts a bit to make them more clear at a glance please let me know if I need to go more simple. What we see is a bull flag that tested the top of our previous bullish channel and it held. This is a solid bullish indication but the retrace off the top of that bull flag was a pretty brutal dip buy trade opportunity which I took. Currently we are sitting at one of two supports left before we fall back into our previous bullish channel. If we fall back into this channel we could see 65 again which would likely make the bears get pretty loud in the space BUT this would also get our daily and weekly RSI back down into potential buy zones so it is a win win if you are in cash. Where we sit currently is a price lower then we want to see for this to still be a bull flag, an RSI that is higher than average but neutral at 54, a bearish MacD cross and a current daily candle wick that has already broken the two supports keeping us from going back into our previous bullish channel. Odds are currently favoring a retest of levels in our old channel between 70-65 so entering bullish here is quite risky IMO unless you are going for a quick flip. Lets see what the 4 hr hold.
LTC In Depth 4hr: Bears are nipping at the bulls heals.
The 4 hr has me weary of the bear because they are nipping at our heals. The RSI sitting at 43 after bouncing off 30. We held our last resistance before going back into the channel (wicked below resistance to the channel boarder twice). MacD appears to be rejecting the bear cross but we need another candle or two to make the determination here. Like I said we have a very high risk entry opportunity here for bulls which I will not be taking unless the hourly is showing oversold and even then there is more risk than reward because there is more resistance then support in our close ranges. We also have the 12 and 26 MA to break through which I speculate will reject the current green candle based on the volume we are seeing. Not looking good here for the bulls but I would be opening shorts here if I could looking for the drop back into the channel.
LTC In Depth 1hr: Prove it bulls!
RSI at 41. If we are not able to hold our weak 77.59 support we will likely fall back into the channel. Bulls have to prove to us that they are still in control. I will be looking for an upper 60s entry for a bounce because it seems like the best short term trade and those could become solid long positions.
Conclusion
In the short term I will be looking for an oversold bounce play if we drop back into the channel and I will dump the two coins I have at break even if I get the opportunity. Stepping back we likely WILL need to break back into our previous bull channel to get our next weekly red candle but I am thinking we could see a LARGE bounce in this week since 74.85 will accelerate us down once we enter the previous bull channel. We could drop all the way to the upper 60s and then come back to the upper 70s which would be a nice long position moving into next week assuming we get our bounce and form a higher low in the channel. We have big price ranges right below our current price but limited upside. Looking for entry targets at 70.48, 69.60 (200 ma) and near the bottom of our previous channel.
A bit nervous with our current situation but here is what I see
We kinda started to rally out of the triangle in my original analysis. I started t scale in because my plan said so. Was sitting with a little profit then KAPOW. I cost averaged a little and I'm currently sitting about 1% in the red.
It looks like we have now formed a new Ascending triangle which is good. Will cost average again if needed but the next drop might be pretty nasty if it comes.
HOPEFULLY we don't fall back into our ascending channel from the start of this run.. Or worse.
Between BCH and LTC I am sitting at about -2% and in a heavier position then I would like but BCH is in an even more clear ascending triangle IMO