Trader Noxtreme back, hitting the reset button as we start a new weekly candle. I am finding a journal approach helpful for my published ideas so if you are finding it helpful also or if you want to join in PLEASE LIKE, SUBSCRIBE AND COMMENT. We are here to learn and grow as traders so do a good thing and share your strategies and ideas with us.
So let's jump into it.
New weekly candles start on Monday (if you are in the US) so it seems fitting that Monday should be our in depth day.
LTC
On the WEEKLY I am comparing this move to the initial move that started the 2017 run. The similarities are notable but so are the differences. RSI was coming DOWN in 2017 but it was still higher at 86. We were just slightly oversold at 71 at this last peak. Seems likely we will pull back but maybe not near as far as we did in 17 because we are not as oversold. 75-60 looks reasonable in the next two weeks but as we will see when we zoom in to shorter term time frames, getting this low would be indication of the trend turning back in the bearish direction.
On the LTC daily we have overbought 76 RSI and what looks to be a downward sloping resistance. The moving averages are diverging quickly. We are still solidly in an uptrend for the 12, 26, 50 MA and the 200 is just starting to curve up. This is a very good sign that we are changing the trend from bearish to bullish long term but odds are in favor of consolidation before we make another move up. The pattern on the chart could be a HUGE bull flag descending triangle but RSI, historical trends, previous price action in this range and how far we ran up all point to a pull back in the near term. The only things I see that could break this pattern bullish in the near term are market sentiment and news (these are positive forces right now) and of course, another whale entering. We can also see that the 4 hr and 1 hr charts will be tightening range equilibriums by looking at the pattern on the daily. Two last things stand out to me on the daily; declining volume and lack of support but increasing resistance near the 100 mark. 100 in getting harder to break.
I am left with these conclusions: likely downward pressure for the next few days to bring the longer term RSIs back into range where we can run again. Shorter term time frames should give us clues as to direction and timing that this equilibrium will break.
Jumping into the 4hr we see what appears to be an ascending triangle bull flag with a base of support between 80.91 and 77.59. Being that our RSI is at 52 we could test this area but it would be a red flag if it breaks because we would lose the 12, 26, and 50 MA and break the bottom of our triangle bearish. The two most notable things here are that our new overhead resistance trend line meets our previous ascending channel resistance line at 77.59. This tells me that this area should be the lowest point to consider ourselves still in equilibrium. Volume is going to be our lead indicator as to where we go next on this chart. RSI under 35 on the 4 hr would be a buy signal for me as it has held as support for nearly the entire uptrend starting Feb 19 2019
Finally our hourly for all the traders out there. We are clearly trying to hold the support of this equilibrium at 87.04 but we have tested this 5times and broke it 3 times definitely if you ignore the initial volatility within about 12 hours of the initial peak. Our RSI is pushing oversold and there is a strong case for accumulation between 35 and 30 rsi as we have held 30 RSI on the hourly since March 21st. Unless there is some kind of bad news I don’t expect us to break this trend as we consolidate in this triangle. Volume is nonexistent and wicks have gotten very short. MacD is curling up to try and go short term bullish again but it seems likely we will bounce off the 26 MA and move into the next range down at 84.19 to 87.04 (green box). Support under this is WEAK so my gut is telling me that we will wick into the yellow box range of 77.59 to 80.91 bouncing the RSI off 30 when we do but this may not be for a few days as we have plenty of room left under our sloping resistance.
I will be focusing on volume and RSI over the next few days. 35 or less on the 1 hr RSI will have me looking for a short term entry. Pushing down to 78-77.50 price level would have me considering long positions if we don’t have some crazy bad news catalyst.
That’s my story and I’m going to try and stick to it better this time. I over traded last week for sure leading to small unnecessary losses.
PLEASE LIKE SUBSCRIBE AND COMMENT if this helps you out or you have something you see that I missed.
So let's jump into it.
New weekly candles start on Monday (if you are in the US) so it seems fitting that Monday should be our in depth day.
LTC
On the WEEKLY I am comparing this move to the initial move that started the 2017 run. The similarities are notable but so are the differences. RSI was coming DOWN in 2017 but it was still higher at 86. We were just slightly oversold at 71 at this last peak. Seems likely we will pull back but maybe not near as far as we did in 17 because we are not as oversold. 75-60 looks reasonable in the next two weeks but as we will see when we zoom in to shorter term time frames, getting this low would be indication of the trend turning back in the bearish direction.
On the LTC daily we have overbought 76 RSI and what looks to be a downward sloping resistance. The moving averages are diverging quickly. We are still solidly in an uptrend for the 12, 26, 50 MA and the 200 is just starting to curve up. This is a very good sign that we are changing the trend from bearish to bullish long term but odds are in favor of consolidation before we make another move up. The pattern on the chart could be a HUGE bull flag descending triangle but RSI, historical trends, previous price action in this range and how far we ran up all point to a pull back in the near term. The only things I see that could break this pattern bullish in the near term are market sentiment and news (these are positive forces right now) and of course, another whale entering. We can also see that the 4 hr and 1 hr charts will be tightening range equilibriums by looking at the pattern on the daily. Two last things stand out to me on the daily; declining volume and lack of support but increasing resistance near the 100 mark. 100 in getting harder to break.
I am left with these conclusions: likely downward pressure for the next few days to bring the longer term RSIs back into range where we can run again. Shorter term time frames should give us clues as to direction and timing that this equilibrium will break.
Jumping into the 4hr we see what appears to be an ascending triangle bull flag with a base of support between 80.91 and 77.59. Being that our RSI is at 52 we could test this area but it would be a red flag if it breaks because we would lose the 12, 26, and 50 MA and break the bottom of our triangle bearish. The two most notable things here are that our new overhead resistance trend line meets our previous ascending channel resistance line at 77.59. This tells me that this area should be the lowest point to consider ourselves still in equilibrium. Volume is going to be our lead indicator as to where we go next on this chart. RSI under 35 on the 4 hr would be a buy signal for me as it has held as support for nearly the entire uptrend starting Feb 19 2019
Finally our hourly for all the traders out there. We are clearly trying to hold the support of this equilibrium at 87.04 but we have tested this 5times and broke it 3 times definitely if you ignore the initial volatility within about 12 hours of the initial peak. Our RSI is pushing oversold and there is a strong case for accumulation between 35 and 30 rsi as we have held 30 RSI on the hourly since March 21st. Unless there is some kind of bad news I don’t expect us to break this trend as we consolidate in this triangle. Volume is nonexistent and wicks have gotten very short. MacD is curling up to try and go short term bullish again but it seems likely we will bounce off the 26 MA and move into the next range down at 84.19 to 87.04 (green box). Support under this is WEAK so my gut is telling me that we will wick into the yellow box range of 77.59 to 80.91 bouncing the RSI off 30 when we do but this may not be for a few days as we have plenty of room left under our sloping resistance.
I will be focusing on volume and RSI over the next few days. 35 or less on the 1 hr RSI will have me looking for a short term entry. Pushing down to 78-77.50 price level would have me considering long positions if we don’t have some crazy bad news catalyst.
That’s my story and I’m going to try and stick to it better this time. I over traded last week for sure leading to small unnecessary losses.
PLEASE LIKE SUBSCRIBE AND COMMENT if this helps you out or you have something you see that I missed.
