jbutler7

Behold Litecoin, the great oscillator

Long
jbutler7 Updated   
BITFINEX:LTCUSD   Litecoin
What you see here is not financial advice!

Here is a very rough macro analysis of Litecoin against historical price/indicator movements. Sadly, unlike most other major cryptos, Litecoin has not broken its 2017 ATH. Some could see that as an opportunity however. I just thought I'd share this interesting similarity I picked up on while examining the MACD in the months prior to the 2017 ATH. I matched that with the "1" and "2" on the chart then vs now according to my interpretation of what could be around the corner.

Notably, in relation to the broad upward channel I've drawn (I drew this almost ages ago now) this MACD action is happening around the same place in the channel, very close to the midline. Lots of room to go up IMO if the past is any indicator.

All along the way up, the 10W EMA (blue) acted as pretty good support until it finally gave way in May 2018 for almost a year, in addition to other EMAs turning into resistance. Similarly, Litecoin is finding support above the 10W EMA again. Currently that's at ~$150, so we can't leave out the possibility that that level gets tested again in the near future before it tries to attempt new highs. We can see the same gaps forming between the 10W, 21W, and 200W EMAs as Litecoin pushes higher.
Comment:
As stated in my previous idea a while ago, Charlie Lee cryptically tweeted that we will probably see an ATH by Litecoin's 10th birthday this October, so my final green line I drew points to where we could see the price move to in the $1300-$2500 range. We should know not to bet against Charlie Lee when he called the top and the bottom of one of the craziest market cycles in history.

Admittedly I am disappointed we aren't there yet since last time LTC and BTC all time highs were much closer together in time, this time it could play out very differently although Bitcoin's probably not done making new highs either. We're just talking about breaking he previous 2013 highs, so in 2017 BTC broke it's previous high around April 2017, while Litecoin didn't break it's previous ATH until August 2017 which was 4 months later, and accelerated to ATH before BTC. Bitcoin broke 20k in December, so if LTC follows the same 4-month lag before breaking it's 2017 highs then April is looking VERY spicy for Litecoin.
Comment:
CORRECTION: Replace 10w EMA with 21w, and 21w with 50w. I got my numbers mixed up with something else.
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