The two possible paths I see for LTC in the coming weeks
I have to admit that LTC is more bullish than I thought. Apparently everyone is anticipating the halving rally, therefore it takes place even earlier than in 2015. Now, I see two paths, depending on the behavior of BTC in the coming weeks.
1. Green path: BTC doesnt dump soon, instead goes sideways, or even upwards retesting the logarithmic resistance.
In this case, I think LTC will reach the top before the BTC dump, then the BTC dump will lead to LTC crashing, and ending the rally.
It will then bounce together with BTC and stabilize, leading to a longer accumulation phase.
2. Red path: BTC starts dumping soon
In this case, I see the LTC rally abruptly ending, LTC will dump together with BTC. As LTCBTC ratio will drop also, I see the low of LTC then being quite low, possible double bottom, or even lower.
But when BTC rebounds, this will lead to an epic rebound in LTC, and it will go from the low, directly to the top of the LTC halving rally. The top here however would not be so high as in the
green case.
Either way, if one would be to catch the BTC dump and accordingly LTC dump, this could generate a really good trade, because the bounce would be epic either way, and an x3-5 would be possible.
Of course now you can say, but what about BTC not dumping any more at all?
I still think the likelihood for that scenario is low, but if it were to happen, then LTC would crash at some point simply due to being overbought on all timescales, in LTCUSD and in LTCBTC.
The result would be similar to the green curve, albeit maybe the accumulation area might be a bit higher pricewise.
So these are my thoughts, I am examining LTC carefully, and seeing what BTC does.
1. Green path: BTC doesnt dump soon, instead goes sideways, or even upwards retesting the logarithmic resistance.
In this case, I think LTC will reach the top before the BTC dump, then the BTC dump will lead to LTC crashing, and ending the rally.
It will then bounce together with BTC and stabilize, leading to a longer accumulation phase.
2. Red path: BTC starts dumping soon
In this case, I see the LTC rally abruptly ending, LTC will dump together with BTC. As LTCBTC ratio will drop also, I see the low of LTC then being quite low, possible double bottom, or even lower.
But when BTC rebounds, this will lead to an epic rebound in LTC, and it will go from the low, directly to the top of the LTC halving rally. The top here however would not be so high as in the
green case.
Either way, if one would be to catch the BTC dump and accordingly LTC dump, this could generate a really good trade, because the bounce would be epic either way, and an x3-5 would be possible.
Of course now you can say, but what about BTC not dumping any more at all?
I still think the likelihood for that scenario is low, but if it were to happen, then LTC would crash at some point simply due to being overbought on all timescales, in LTCUSD and in LTCBTC.
The result would be similar to the green curve, albeit maybe the accumulation area might be a bit higher pricewise.
So these are my thoughts, I am examining LTC carefully, and seeing what BTC does.
Comment:
Well, as predicted, the moment BTC starts dumping, LTCUSD, as well as LTCBTC start tanking.
This has the effect that LTCUSD is dropping overproportionally more than BTCUSD.
Now, if indeed BTCUSD is preparing for the final low of this cycle, LTCUSD will follow the red line:
Sure, not perfectly on the red line, but in principle, this is how I see LTCUSD unfold.
This has the effect that LTCUSD is dropping overproportionally more than BTCUSD.
Now, if indeed BTCUSD is preparing for the final low of this cycle, LTCUSD will follow the red line:
Sure, not perfectly on the red line, but in principle, this is how I see LTCUSD unfold.
Comment:
So the green path it is after all.
Comment:
BTC and therefore LTC (LTC basically just follows BTC) are always good for surprises.
Due to the bullish BTC breakout, I can see the following happening now for LTC:
But in an extreme case, a retest of the log resistance would be possible, with a double bottom around 20 USD. We shoudln't completely brush off this scenario.
Due to the bullish BTC breakout, I can see the following happening now for LTC:
But in an extreme case, a retest of the log resistance would be possible, with a double bottom around 20 USD. We shoudln't completely brush off this scenario.
Now it will be interesting to see if BTC dumps more, then LTCUSD might still take the red path, and this breakout of the log resistance was just an epic bulltrap.