Many who are less experienced at TA do not realize that it is the context that carries more weight than anything else. Context is a combination of broad factors that will likely assert a bias over time, and since it is not explicitly measurable, it is often not considered when facing something like a formation.
The context of this market, just like the other major coins, is and has been the entire time. This does not mean it is immune to short term corrections, but it does mean the corrections can be considered buying opportunities when they become relatively extreme.
Extreme moves are extreme because they push too far, too fast and do not happen often. The recent extreme was the sell off to the 150 low. The 181 to 138 zone happens to be the .618 area relevant to the broad structure measured from the sub 100 lows. I do not expect price to push that far, even in the face of the that is unfolding at the moment. IF it happens to offer that opportunity, I would certainly be looking to buy in that zone as an investment.
The more likely scenario is a retest of the high 190s and low 200s. This is the .618 of the recent swing that has peaked around the 285 area. This minor support happens to overlap the broader that is just below as you can see on the chart. This area would also offer swing trade as well as longer term investment opportunities in my opinion. It is just a matter of waiting for some form of confirmation to appear such as a or higher low around the specified levels.
At the moment, price is not only sitting near a previous peak, but also just below the 285 to 321 which is the .618 of the recent swing. Failing here will complete a second right shoulder of the formation which is likely to lead prices to one of the lower support levels. Why invest or buy now when lower prices are likely to follow?
A common mistake that people make is they see the as a trend reversal. This is where context carries more weight like I was explaining earlier. As long as the 150 low is not taken out, the broader trend is which makes formations like this one a buying opportunity at predetermined levels. Don't be distracted by the immediate formation and pay more attention to the broader view, especially when looking to hold for a longer time horizon.
Other things that I notice that continue to throw people off are all the rumors and news swirling around these coins. When it comes to that information, just remember this: If you did not PAY for the information, or you do not know the source personally, it is likely not going to provide much value in terms of managing a position or portfolio. TA will offer much more valuable information if you learn how to use it properly.
In summary, there is a forming on the larger time frames, but that does not mean this market is going back to dramatically lower levels. As long as these markets are not replaced by another technology, the broader context will limit how low a formation like this can go. I view this potential short term scenario as a buying opportunity and will be watching any retest of the support areas below 200 for investment opportunities. This market so far does not offer the same frequency of short term opportunities compared to BTC or ETH, which makes it a good one to buy and hold in my opinion even when the more realistic trading environment returns.
Comments and questions welcome.
AS LONG AS
Some wise guy Livingston used to say "you don't know until you bet it"
I'm betting huge on it.
Anyways, thank you as always. I wish to hear your wisdom again soon.